Texas Fall 2018

[BrokenGlass]

Looking forward to the wet pattern across the state! El Nino is here

The Highland Lakes are full as well as the Aquifers. Life is good in Texas...

Remember when the Highland Lakes were never going to be full again?


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[Ntxw]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0972
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Areas affected...Western & Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122347Z - 130547Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across the area
ahead of Sergio's remnants. Hourly rain totals to 1.75" and local
amounts to 4" are possible prior to 06z.

Discussion...Satellite imagery reveals the remains of Sergio near
30N 108.5W, about 160 miles west-southwest of El Paso. The
environment ahead of the system is moistening, with precipitable
water values of 1.25-1.75". The activity is near and just north
of a thermal boundary lying across the region, which has ML CAPE
values of 500-1500 J/kg. While inflow at 850 hPa is 10-15 kts per
VAD wind profile data, effective bulk shear of 30-55 kts lies
here, which appears to have led to the development of a
mesocyclone well south-southwest of Midland TX. Showers and
thunderstorms have been festering in central TX and showing signs
of greater organization in and near western TX.

The expectation is for convection to fill in and increase in
intensity in time across two areas: near the Texas Big Bend/Pecos
River Valley and in the vicinity of the northern Concho Valley.
After 03z, convergent low-level inflow is expected to increase
which should import greater moisture into the region The 18z HREF
probabilities of exceeding 1" an hour peak in the 03-04z time
frame near the Concho Valley and are high after 03z as the remains
of Sergio move into the Trans Pecos region. The portion of the
boundary is western TX is expected to lift somewhat to the north
in the meantime. The HRRR/RAP guidance appear well behind the
curve concerning the recent uptick near the Concho Valley, so the
heavy rainfall could occur sooner than advertised. Hourly rain
totals to 1.75" with local amounts to 4" are anticipated. Soils
have been saturated by recent rainfall totaling over 300% of
normal. Flash flooding is a concern.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to the wet pattern across the state! El Nino is here

The Highland Lakes are full as well as the Aquifers. Life is good in Texas...

It definitely is, praise the Lord!

We have a lot to be thankful for in terms of rainfall over the past few years. We haven't seen much in the way of widespread significant drought in quite a while.

[funster]

Persistent thin band of rain slowly lifting up into Fort Worth and Dallas

https://www.wfaa.com/regional-hd-radar

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hows the siberian snow advance looking?

[Haris]

just wow

[Cpv17]

[url]https://thumb.ibb.co/dvSVpU/gfs-apcpn-scus-31.png [/url]


just wow

Look at that EPAC hurricane the GFS has. That could really play a role in our weather in about 10-15 days.

[Cpv17]

[bubba hotep]

A couple of tornado warnings out there this morning

[bubba hotep]

How do you upload radar gifs? Thx

Save the gif, then upload it to a free image hosting site like https://imgbb.com/ and then copy the link and paste it in in the image code (use button labeled Img) . There are other ways to do it, so maybe so others will give some tips.

[Ntxw]

You also have to make sure the source when you save it as a GIF does actually animate. Some frame based animations don't actually save the entire loop but just a particular frame.

College of DuPage nexrad products radar loops have a download option and is pretty good. If you have the RadarScope app it is also a good source for GIFs to upload

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Rain is coming #Sergio

[Ntxw]

For DFW the October monthly record rainfall is 14.18" of rain. So far the airport is at 3.83". If an additional 6-8" falls as forecast the next several days, we'll have a shot at the record by the end of the month.

[funster]

Following the wettest September with the wettest October would be impressive.

[Ntxw]

Following the wettest September with the wettest October would be impressive.

I don't think DFW has ever had 3 Calendar months with double digit rainfalls. February..September....October? 2015 Came close with October/November coming close to joining May of that year.

If April, May, June, and July weren't so below normal, we'd be easily topping 2015



Note: After 2020 when the next climo data subset comes out (running 30 year averages) the big airport will have higher temperature normals, at the same time the annual rainfall average will rise. Shift closer to the East Texas climate vs West Texas. We've had some big totals since 1990. 4 of the top 10 wettest years have occurred since 1990, soon to be 5 or half.

[rwfromkansas]

Just passed 1.60 already in north Fort Worth after .40 yesterday.

[bubba hotep]

A couple more tornado warnings out there. Stormy day across Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Svr Tstorm Warning

[Yukon Cornelius]

3” so far out here. Everything is flooded. The chickens and cows better learn how to swim..

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, now up to 2.20! if it’s supposed to be even heavier after Sunday, yikes!

[Ntxw]

Wow, now up to 2.20! if it’s supposed to be even heavier after Sunday, yikes!

This is the early extra from Sergio. The big 6-8" of rain comes with the big front Sunday through Tuesday.