Texas Fall 2018

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is there a way we can see the analysis of the event from last Dec? Look at similarities of the event.

[orangeblood]

Beyond this cold snap still seeing signs of the famed "snow' weather pattern for the southern plains. Greenland block is coming with a split jet. The EPO region continues to deliver as guidance has gradually adjusted to seasonal trends there. I would be very surprised if there was not an event somewhere in Texas during the stretch at the end of November and first half of December.

What is about to happen in the high latitude looks beautiful and textbook blocking.

Completely agree...this is a prime setup, storm track undercutting across the south with plenty of cold across Canada to tap into. This has happened in short stints over the past few years but Canada was torching at the time, this synoptic setup looks much different

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Radar echos south of Ft Stockton.... Reaching the ground?

[jaguars_22]

Hrrr has a bigger band!!!! Right over my house anyone tell me what time that would be

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hrrr has a bigger band!!!! Right over my house anyone tell me what time that would be

9-10am for Houston

[jaguars_22]

I’m not sure if any models have that huge blow up of snow over alpine area!? Looks to be moving northeast

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I’m not sure if any models have that huge blow up of snow over alpine area!? Looks to be moving northeast

They didnt, im watching it. Quite interesting. Expanding too.

[wxman22]

The HRRR hasn't backed down so far, and it even shows what looks like convective banding, if that happens that would be a shock for sure but it wouldn't be the first time a cold core low surprised southeast Texas with convective snow bands. (the Decembver 2008 event)

[South Texas Storms]

Late evening AFD update by FWD:

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD IN A MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES AND/OR SLEET
DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS INDICATE PRETTY DECENT
ASCENT WAS ONGOING AND WAS RESULTING IN ELEVATED ECHOES. WHILE NOT
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS REACHING THE GROUND HERE, IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT ONCE THESE ECHOES TRANSLATE EASTWARD MAY
ENCOUNTER A BIT MORE MOISTURE. STILL, SUBLIMATION WILL BE
NECESSARY TO HELP TO WET-BULB THE DRY 630-850MB LAYER---WHICH
SEEMS POSSIBLE. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT SUBLIMATION, IT'S CONCEIVABLE
THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR LIGHT SLEET PELLETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE VIA SEEDER-FEEDER TYPE PROCESSES. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY MORNING. MOST IMPORTANTLY, HOWEVER, IMPACTS
SHOULD BE QUITE NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS (NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY SETTLING OF PRECIPITATION IN ONE PARTICULAR PLACE)
AND LIKELY RELATIVE WARMTH OF ROAD SURFACES.

[Haris]

4 am alarm. i hope it becomes a surprise

[Haris]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1147 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Area radars show bands of light snow over the Edwards Plateau to the
Big Bend. Latest HRRR shows these bands moving across our area
overnight into early Tuesday morning. Have updated the forecasts, to
include snow. Due to warm surfaces and strong winds, expect no
accumulations at this time. Should bands increase in intensity, then
light accumulations may be possible. No other updates needed at this
time.

[South Texas Storms]

4 am alarm. i hope it becomes a surprise

Good luck! Latest radar and water vapor satellite look interesting. Please post pics if you see anything

[TexasSam]

I have one of the security cameras on the house on manual record. If anything happens here it's going to see it.

[ravyrn]

It has been lightly snowing in Jacksonville, TX for the past half hour!!!

[TXWeatherMan]

Are the radar returns west of San Antonio making it to the ground?

[Cpv17]

Are the radar returns west of San Antonio making it to the ground?

I’m wondering the same thing.

[Portastorm]

A few reports of light snow flurries or snow grains around the Austin area. More than anything else it shows just how impressive this mid November cold snap is. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for all of us, including wxman57.

[Ntxw]

Beyond this cold snap still seeing signs of the famed "snow' weather pattern for the southern plains. Greenland block is coming with a split jet. The EPO region continues to deliver as guidance has gradually adjusted to seasonal trends there. I would be very surprised if there was not an event somewhere in Texas during the stretch at the end of November and first half of December.

What is about to happen in the high latitude looks beautiful and textbook blocking.

Completely agree...this is a prime setup, storm track undercutting across the south with plenty of cold across Canada to tap into. This has happened in short stints over the past few years but Canada was torching at the time, this synoptic setup looks much different

It looks to me like a real -NAO to Greenland Block. We've had bouts of pseudo wannabe -NAO that's really just an extension due to the AO going negative. It is a long term game changer. The strat disruption coming is a bottom up event. The blocking in the troposphere will signal the displacement plus the weak-mod Nino background is really helping it. We also have a clear wavetrain and subtropical jet with a good injection of southern moving storms, this ingredient has been missing really since the winter of 2009-2010. A weaker version happened in 2012-2013.

On another note, quite chilly this morning across the state. Not very often does it get this cold, this early. For Goodness sakes Houston's forecast high today is low to mid 40s! Even colder tomorrow morning all across the state well below freezing. Even Brownsville is near freezing by then.

[rwfromkansas]

This is my observation, but it always seems like the first few freezes struggle to verify. DFW forecast mid-20s to upper 20s this morning. Only got down to 30 IMBY and 32 in DAL.

Still freezing, but not a hard freeze like forecast.

Is my perception wrong?

[Ntxw]

On another note DFW is now a whopping -5.5F below normal with the next two days sinking it a little further. It will moderate some but will remain well below normal. Average highs should be upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s. At best we moderate back to near normal. There is no significant above normal temperatures in the 7-10 day forecast. November is going to be the third month in a row below normal at the airport! And actually one of the colder below normal in recent years since 2014.