Texas Fall 2018

[Brent]

On the Nam I am seeing a blob of moisture Tuesday morn pretty close to Victoria and south Texas who will see more icy mix south Texas or Dallas last year the south won

Dunno about this storm but its definitely DFW's turn after the misery of last year

[Ntxw]

It is interesting to me that now both the GFS and NAM are quite cold aloft (while precip is in the air) despite what the "rain/snow" colors on the maps show. This is indicative to me that because either the surface or the interpretation of the maps, the surface being warm is the drawback. It is events like this that can over-achieve or surprise by either bringing the cold air a loft down via super-cooled droplets or the surface cold is wildly underestimated.

Of course nothing may happen and it's a frigid rain .

[Ntxw]

Also of note the drilling of higher pressures into Mexico. This is quite a cold, deep air mass above. I'd like to see what the surface temperatures are when the air starts moving southward.

[Haris]

Just a cool thing I noticed. We have reached the point that we reached in the summer thread this year already!

[Brent]

NBC 5's model just had a brief snow band over Dallas Monday afternoon

[SnowintheFalls]

NBC 5's model just had a brief snow band over Dallas Monday afternoon

http://i63.tinypic.com/xbergi.jpg

I'm intrigued at what the Euro has to say. Hopefully it falls in line and stays in line!

[Brent]

NBC 5's model just had a brief snow band over Dallas Monday afternoon

http://i63.tinypic.com/xbergi.jpg

I'm intrigued at what the Euro has to say. Hopefully it falls in line and stays in line!

Looks like no snow again

Really irritating me now

[Cpv17]

NBC 5's model just had a brief snow band over Dallas Monday afternoon

http://i63.tinypic.com/xbergi.jpg

I'm intrigued at what the Euro has to say. Hopefully it falls in line and stays in line!

Looks like no snow again

Really irritating me now

I’m not surprised by this. I wouldn’t bank on the Euro to get your hopes up. Once it locks in on something it very rarely changes, but it’s been wrong before and could be wrong again.

[Brent]

Some really good members even for the metroplex on the GFS ensembles

[Ralph's Weather]

Nothing exciting from 06Z suite of models. Just about exactly same as previous runs. I still see some upside I the table as the upper levels still look good. Have to see what surface temps end up being and how much moisture is pulled from the E Pac. We won't know that until it is happening just about.

[TXWeatherMan]

The FV3 has another pretty good front next weekend. I remember it was the first one to sniff out this front so it might be something to watch.

[Ntxw]

DFW is 32F as of 6am. Official first freeze of the season.

[gpsnowman]

DFW is 32F as of 6am. Official first freeze of the season.

Very early in the season for the first official freeze at the airport. I wonder when the last time we saw a freeze this early. Some years it doesn't happen until December. Maybe a couple more freezes next week as well. Keep them coming.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

DFW is 32F as of 6am. Official first freeze of the season.

My station bottomed at 31.5 at 7.09 am.

[Ntxw]

DFW is 32F as of 6am. Official first freeze of the season.

Very early in the season for the first official freeze at the airport. I wonder when the last time we saw a freeze this early. Some years it doesn't happen until December. Maybe a couple more freezes next week as well. Keep them coming.

This is the earliest freeze date at DFW since 1993 (Leon Lett). That occured on Oct. 30th. 2013 and 2014 had freezes a few days later and a couple of years like 1997 that happened on Nov. 11 so indeed earliest freeze in 25 years.

[Ralph's Weather]

DFW is 32F as of 6am. Official first freeze of the season.

32 in Hideaway

[TexasF6]

Anyone have a source region for the air? US Snow cover is ok, but I look for moderating to be an issue with temps unless the source is a good one!

[rwfromkansas]

I got down to 32.4, so I think that counts.

[bubba hotep]

For those still looking for some small iota of hope, there are 4 SREF members that have over 2" of snow at DFW. The mean is 0.64 with nearly 20 members showing no snow at all.

[srainhoutx]

Anyone have a source region for the air? US Snow cover is ok, but I look for moderating to be an issue with temps unless the source is a good one!

The cold air originated in Siberia and near Greenland A sprawling 1050mb High over Eastern Russia and Eastern Europe is assisting with shuffling the cold air across the North Pole into Canada. A strong shortwave upper trough is currently diving S over the Yukon Territories that will send a 1040mb+ Artic High into Colorado Monday. That High may build to near 1050mb Monday into Tuesday. It actually a function of perturbed Polar Vortex event that happened about a week ago. Interestingly the long range 10mb models suggest and perturbed round of that Polar Vortex may occur around Thanksgiving that may lead to another strong shot of Artic Air in early to mid December. Time will tell.