Texas Fall 2018

[SnowintheFalls]

Has the Euro released yet? Just curious if it is still being stubborn.

[Brent]

Has the Euro released yet? Just curious if it is still being stubborn.

Yeah its not looking good unless you're in Central Oklahoma for much or the Panhandle

Even the NAM which was snowy even into Dallas yesterday has zero for Wichita Falls it pretty much matches what the Euro had the last few runs

[jaguars_22]

Boy that 6z nam looks fun for coastal Texas... I see maybe a low pressure form like in Xmas 04

[Cerlin]

Genuine question for the longtime DFW weather enthusiasts here. Has there ever been a time where snow was basically written off and had been dropped from model support, but it still snowed? I’m fairly new to weather so anything before 2008 isn’t in my recollective database.

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, a number of 00z Euro ensemble members are showing a secondary impulse producing snow across Texas on Wednesday night into Thursday.

[Cerlin]

Hmmm, a number of 00z Euro ensemble members are showing a secondary impulse producing snow across Texas on Wednesday night into Thursday.

About what percentage are showing that?

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, a number of 00z Euro ensemble members are showing a secondary impulse producing snow across Texas on Wednesday night into Thursday.

It looks like about 20% of the members show this for DFW and it goes up to near 50% as you move NE towards Paris, TX.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and overnight

Strong cold front will move across the area on Monday with potential for first freeze of the season by the middle of the week.

Upper level pattern has a broad trough over the central plains which has resulted in cold front pushing well out in the Gulf of Mexico last Friday. Due to the approach of an incoming trough over the Baja region, the surface cold front is starting to retreat northward along the lower TX coast. Surface analysis shows the formation of a surface low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico off of the lower TX coast and this system will begin to move NNE this afternoon and overnight while intensifying. Low level jet of 35-50kts will begin to transport moisture over top of the low level cold air mass this afternoon and this will result in the formation of showers and eventually thunderstorms. Air mass at the surface is stable, but air mass above about 4,000ft will become increasing unstable later today into tonight which will support a strong to marginally severe hail threat with storms that develop.

This evening the surface low and its warm front extending eastward along the US Gulf coast will begin to progress inland over SE TX. It remains to be determined exactly how far inland this front will move, but this feature will allow for more surface based storm formation in the narrow warm sector overnight. Current thinking is that the warm front could move inland from about Bay City to Downtown Houston to near Liberty overnight and the area south of this front would be at a risk for a few severe storms with damaging winds or a brief weak tornado. It is also possible that the warm front remain near the coast or offshore and the damaging wind and tornado threat would then also remain offshore.

Strong surface cold front will sweep across SE TX early Monday ushering in some of the coldest air since last winter. Gusty NW winds of 15-25mph will develop over the area on Monday with temperatures falling into the 50’s and likely upper 40’s up north during the day. Clouds will begin to clear on Monday evening, but both the GFS and to a much bigger extent the NAM show some moisture lingering in Monday night and even Tuesday that could help prevent maximum cooling conditions when combined with building high pressure and winds not going calm. Nam continues to show slightly deeper moisture (mainly aloft) over the area on Monday night while the GFS and ECWMF are fairly dry (GFS has some lingering mid level moisture). Do not think there is enough moisture for precipitation and the dry sub cloud layer should help evaporate anything that falls, but cannot completely rule out a couple of sleet pellets north of HWY 105 Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area on Tuesday and expect highs to struggle to reach 50 degrees. If skies clear out late Tuesday and winds become clam a widespread freeze will be possible on Wednesday morning. GFS is showing 29 for IAH, 24 for Conroe, and 32 for Hobby on Wednesday morning under clear skies. Some concern that upper level cirrus clouds will remain over the region and that the GFS lows are too cold, but even with high level cirrus it looks like many areas could still freeze on Wednesday morning. For now will go with lows in the upper 20’s north of HWY 105 and low 30’s between HWY 105 and US 59 and then low to mid 30’s south of US 59. A freeze warning will likely be needed if current trends continue since this would be the first freeze of the season and the end to our growing season. Now would be a good time to winterize those outdoor items for the winter. Could see another freeze on Thursday morning and in fact, Thursday morning may be a better potential for freezing temperatures with a higher potential for clear skies and lighter winds.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This sure looks like a “Texas Winter” thread. And I like it.

[Cerlin]

NOT A DRILL! 12z CMC has snow for DFW on Thursday.

[Brent]

NOT A DRILL! 12z CMC has snow for DFW on Thursday.

hmmm a cold core low... maybe those EPS members are onto something

[Haris]

[Captmorg70]

That’s the cold core on the CMC. A few of models have the feature but not as distinct. Maybe what Euro members see.

Wouldn’t the cold front scour out all the moisture on Monday night?

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/kuODvOy.jpg

That’s the cold core on the CMC. A few of models have the feature but not as distinct. Maybe what Euro members see.

Wouldn’t the cold front scour out all the moisture on Monday night?

You would think that, but no that’s not necessarily true, especially since we’re in an El Niño with an active STJ. I can’t tell you how many times we’ve had strong fronts blow through, but yet it was still cloudy and overcast afterwards.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Boy that 6z nam looks fun for coastal Texas... I see maybe a low pressure form like in Xmas 04

I just saw this on the NAM. Can any mets give us details if something like this were to occur?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://i.imgur.com/kuODvOy.j%20pg

That’s the cold core on the CMC. A few of models have the feature but not as distinct. Maybe what Euro members see.

Wouldn’t the cold front scour out all the moisture on Monday night?

The NAM too for a couple runs. 850 has a low forming on the coast.

[Ralph's Weather]

https://i.imgur.com/kuODvOy.jpg

That’s the cold core on the CMC. A few of models have the feature but not as distinct. Maybe what Euro members see.

Wouldn’t the cold front scour out all the moisture on Monday night?

That is a classic look of a heavy snow producer for Texas. Arctic front followed by a surprise closed low out of Mexico. All of the models have this trailing feature but the Canadian is digs it just SW enough to produce over Texas. If that thing digs SW of El Paso then we could have a widespread 3-6" storm.

[Captmorg70]

This is just speculation.... doesn’t the Pwat have to be higher for precipitation? TIA for explanations

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://i.imgur.com/ChTxmhf.jpg

This is just speculation.... doesn’t the Pwat have to be higher for precipitation? TIA for explanations

Its about the orientation of the low i believe and if a low forms on the coast. A positively tilted low doesnt produce enough lift. Negatively tilted low creates divergence on the east side of the low and creates alot of lift.

Any mets feel free to correct me.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 15Z SREF suggests a cut off cold core upper low SW of El Paso with moisture over running the cold air at the surface into early Wednesday. Cold core upper lows that meander over Texas have been known to throw a curve ball or two in the expected sensible weather forecast. We had one in late 2010 roll along I-10 that brought unexpected snow from Austin to Houston and on E to Beaumont/Lake Charles.