Texas Fall 2018

[Ntxw]

You know, late this weekend it's going to end up a little colder than what the models showed a week ago. I wonder if this is going to be the trend this year. Sunday in NTX is likely to be falling throughout the day from the upper 40s to the lower 40s.

Yep. Another thing I’ve noticed too is the models having an east bias in the medium to long range with the cold air only to shift back west in the short.

Yeah and it's not hard to see why. The 500mb ridge is not centered in the west but rather off the North American coast where the SSTa's are warmest in the GOA. Think 2013-2014 in that aspect. Second you can see that the 500mb mean trough actually extends to the west and southwest. Sometimes going by seasonal trends is better.



However this is about to change as the 500mb mean trough will shift and go from the southwest, through Texas, and the southeast. Some serious polar blocking on the way.

[Ntxw]

Plots for some of the most notable snowy months at the airport.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, i have heard about possibilities of a ssw of some type and this scandinavian ridge. Are these the precursor of possible analogs you posted here? If anything is different, what is it.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, i have heard about possibilities of a ssw of some type and this scandinavian ridge. Are these the precursor of possible analogs you posted here? If anything is different, what is it.

Everything is mostly troposphere driven. I don't think the "warm December" climo of Nino will apply this year. The Scandinavian ridge, and Pacific is forcing the displacement in the stratosphere. If I had to make a guess it's likely weak-mod Nino effect. For whatever reason blocking there just likes to happen in the Goldilocks of El Nino.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, i have heard about possibilities of a ssw of some type and this scandinavian ridge. Are these the precursor of possible analogs you posted here? If anything is different, what is it.

Everything is mostly troposphere driven. I don't think the "warm December" climo of Nino will apply this year. The Scandinavian ridge, and Pacific is forcing the displacement in the stratosphere. If I had to make a guess it's likely weak-mod Nino effect. For whatever reason blocking there just likes to happen in the Goldilocks of El Nino.

Ntxw, do you believe if this pattern actually materializes, will it be one to support colder and winter wx opportunities for us? I heard that the atmosphere hasnt coupled to ocean yet either with this niño. All these possibilities are over my head for sure.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you believe if this pattern actually materializes, will it be one to support colder and winter wx opportunities for us? I heard that the atmosphere hasnt coupled to ocean yet either with this niño. All these possibilities are over my head for sure.

I would be surprised if we did not see an event or several events in the pattern. You really can't paint it much better for snow all things equal. Assuming it does come to fruition. Of course anything beyond 3-5 days is subject to complete folly. However we are going in the right direction.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do you believe if this pattern actually materializes, will it be one to support colder and winter wx opportunities for us? I heard that the atmosphere hasnt coupled to ocean yet either with this niño. All these possibilities are over my head for sure.

I would be surprised if we did not see an event or several events in the pattern. You really can't paint it much better for snow all things equal. Assuming it does come to fruition. Of course anything beyond 3-5 days is subject to complete folly. However we are going in the right direction.

Ntxw, to me it seems with that ne pacific warm pool, it kinda reminds me of 13-14 winter. I know this winter wont be like that, but some similarities other than the weak to moderate niño we have this year.

[Brent]

one thing for sure... everywhere I've read and checked, the hype for this winter is off the charts. Like I've never seen before. I still have a lot of people I talk to back east and they've been buzzing about it too.

Like if this winter isn't big on snow around here I'm going to seriously question things... the patterns that are modeled do seem to look similar to big snow producers also.

this cold outbreak/early season snowfall however minor it was has really gotten the ball rolling too

[Ntxw]

4th freeze at DFW today. This past Monday barely missed 5th as it got down to 33.

[Ntxw]

one thing for sure... everywhere I've read and checked, the hype for this winter is off the charts. Like I've never seen before. I still have a lot of people I talk to back east and they've been buzzing about it too.

Like if this winter isn't big on snow around here I'm going to seriously question things... the patterns that are modeled do seem to look similar to big snow producers also.

this cold outbreak/early season snowfall however minor it was has really gotten the ball rolling too

Usually there is always a "but" factor. It may get cold but "Nina" or but "Atlantic is bad" or "but Canada is warm". There isn't really an excuse right now so it better deliver and I think it will. We've finally seen below normal months back to back to back! The Euro seasonal drives that legendary 500mb posted above of the snow years through Feb and the CFSv2 has reversed course to show a colder December.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 24 here.

The upcoming pattern looks truly epic for a series of winter storms all winter long. With Arctic blocking and a storm path from the SW through the SE and up the E coast. Hard to find a reason to curb the enthusiasm. Even these upcoming warm couple days will not exceed normals by more than a degree or two before we head right back down.

[davidiowx]

Another key factor to keep in mind is wxman57 (a.k.a. The heat miser) has been awfully quiet...

[Ntxw]

Clear skies and light winds took DFW down to 29 this morning. Beat the forecast of 34.

[gboudx]

Another key factor to keep in mind is wxman57 (a.k.a. The heat miser) has been awfully quiet...

Oh, he posted earlier this week demanding a return to hot weather. But no gloating, no evil predictions of warmth or using his powers to take control of the global thermostat.

[Portastorm]

I suspect this means good things for us as well with the blocking in play.

[Portastorm]

And yet more "fun" viewing on Twitter this morning ...

[Cpv17]

All of the 12z model runs for today sucked if you want cold and snow. Lots of rain for southeast Texas though.

[TXWeatherMan]

All of the 12z model runs for today sucked if you want cold and snow. Lots of rain for southeast Texas though.

The models are all over the place that far out. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it.

[Haris]

Let's all take a moment to look at the incredible frontogenesis across the N.E !?

[Yukon Cornelius]

From mid 20s with a heavy frost to 69 degrees this afternoon. “Make Texas Cold Again”