Texas Fall 2018

[Brent]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/eZwSAL/7fnt.gif [/url]

Let's all take a moment to look at the incredible frontogenesis across the N.E !?

Watching the snow in NYC, apparently they weren't expecting that much...

I'm bored now, when's the next cold snap

[BrokenGlass]

I have some bad news for my DFW rain loving friends...I am having a new roof put on my house today, so that will likely put up a rain deflector shield over the entire area. Sorry guys.


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[South Texas Storms]

The new Euro Weeklies look pretty nice for TX winter weather lovers in December!

[jaguars_22]

Any snow for south Texas?

[gboudx]

I have some bad news for my DFW rain loving friends...I am having a new roof put on my house today, so that will likely put up a rain deflector shield over the entire area. Sorry guys.


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Or make you a hail magnet.

[bubba hotep]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/eZwSAL/7fnt.gif [/url]

Let's all take a moment to look at the incredible frontogenesis across the N.E !?

This was a fun system to track. It dumped huge fluffy flakes on us this morning in DC with the airport officially reporting the 3rd highest early season total on record with 1.4". I would say totals were closer to 2 -2.5" at my location but totals rapidly declined as you moved into the District. Even as late as last night the local NWS office was going with little to no accumulation of snow or sleet and the Capital Weather Gang went with brief winter mix quickly changing to rain. The 18z and 00z models all trended a tad colder but, even then, I didn't expect to see this kind of snow. However, borderline setups with strong CAD in place are very tricky to forecast. Looking at the soundings last night and it was so borderline, surface temps b/w 32-34, thin warm layer b/w 800-700mb, but strong Omega in the DGZ. It was basically hair splitting b/w sleet/rain mix and heavy big flake snow and the heavy snow won out for a few hours.



My hands were full when making my way over to DC this morning and I didn't get many good pics. But here are a few:

It takes pretty impressive rates to cover the road when temps are just above freezing.



Early on once the ground was turning solid white.



Much less impressive accumulations over in the District.

[BrokenGlass]

I have some bad news for my DFW rain loving friends...I am having a new roof put on my house today, so that will likely put up a rain deflector shield over the entire area. Sorry guys.


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Or make you a hail magnet.

Hail paid for this roof. Hopefully I’m safe for a few years.


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[bubba hotep]

Any snow for south Texas?

Hard to say. Control has a significant N. Texas snowstorm and the ensemble mean appears to highlight 2 or 3 distinct opportunities for N. Texas and maybe 1ish for Central and South. Generally speaking, it shows higher heights across the AO/NAO regions. For most of Texas, it looks like the 20-25th of Nov are the warmest temps with pretty significant cold risk all the way through Dec.

[Ntxw]

It is really hard not to get excited about this pattern. If we can get the Pacific to deepen the Aleutian low in a blocked pattern we could head to what happened in 1978. A period in which multiple weekly snowstorms to threaten for about a 3-4 week period in a blocked pattern. December patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves in February.

The Scandinavian ridge is born and will grow while retrograding to become a legit pattern Greenland block.



You also have a pretty clear distinct stronger than normal subtropical jet split from the weakened Polar jet below. Such a pattern allows cold air to move in all directions and not west to east as usual climo does. Also jet fuel for winter storms.

[TheProfessor]

1978, now that's a winter I wouldn't mind repeating.

[Brent]

these analogs are making me drool

December can't get here soon enough

[Haris]

its not just us....


NYC tonight

[Ntxw]

[url]https://image.ibb.co/f8he70/Screen-Shot-2018-11-15-at-9-41-04-PM.png [/url]

its not just us....


NYC tonight

This is just more proof that the stereotype is not all fair! If you don't pre-treat roads or plow, it's just no good no matter where you are!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Any snow for south Texas?

Hard to say. Control has a significant N. Texas snowstorm and the ensemble mean appears to highlight 2 or 3 distinct opportunities for N. Texas and maybe 1ish for Central and South. Generally speaking, it shows higher heights across the AO/NAO regions. For most of Texas, it looks like the 20-25th of Nov are the warmest temps with pretty significant cold risk all the way through Dec.

And the 20-25th isn’t all that warm. It’s very seasonal. I’m loving November so far and December looks arousing!

[Ntxw]

these analogs are making me drool

December can't get here soon enough

Unfortunately it is still only mid November so a long way away. Any storms in the mentioned period to start likely won't show up until the week after Thanksgiving on models.


Also as a reminder we will be moving to the winter, yes WINTER thread in 2 weeks! We live for this.

[Brent]

[url]https://image.ibb.co/f8he70/Screen-Shot-2018-11-15-at-9-41-04-PM.png [/url]

its not just us....


NYC tonight

they have lost their right to make fun of us...

0z GFS fantasy snow in DFW November 29th.

[AubreyStorm]

Hi folks!

I will go on vacations to New York next week, November 22 Thanksgiving day to November 28, so, any updates if it’s possible see snow?

I live here in Denton, Texas .... Hmmmm it’s cold too

[Brent]

Hi folks!

I will go on vacations to New York next week, November 22 Thanksgiving day to November 28, so, any updates if it’s possible see snow?

I live here in Denton, Texas .... Hmmmm it’s cold too

looks like as of now, it'll be warmer up there by then

[WacoWx]

I get my hopes up just like this every year. I know what the outcome is, but I still let myself get all excited about the potential of winter weather. I've learned to be ok with it. It's kinda like buying a lottery ticket, knowing you're not going to win, but fantasizing about the 'what if' for 2 days is well worth the $2.

I will continue to get my hopes up. Crossing fingers and toes. #DallasIsDue

[srainhoutx]

Strat Warming and minor PV split depicted by the guidance next week. Volatility in the Medium/Long Range models abound...