Texas Fall 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Crazy to think how much the lakes have risen in 7 days/30 days.

Travis has risen 36 feet, in 7 days time!

[Ntxw]

06z GFS rainfall. This is your classic Textbook epac October Mexican hit then flood. Look for WPC maps to light up by early next week and more flood watches.

This could be a big one Vicente

[weatherdude1108]

My dad just texted me saying that he just heard Al Roker talking about Lake Travis on TODAY.

[gboudx]

06z GFS rainfall. This is your classic Textbook epac October Mexican hit then flood. Look for WPC maps to light up by early next week and more flood watches.

This could be a big one Vicente

Rockwall county is square in the middle of that 10-12" color. I hope that doesn't happen. Too much water.

[gboudx]

Latest FWD drought map. Looks like we need to get the folks down in the Waco and Mexia areas a bit more rain.



Statewide is just incredible how much drought has eased.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/LCRA/status/1052936712723288066

[weatherdude1108]

They're keeping Buchanan as close to 1018 as possible. Full is 1021, but they're making upgrades to it, and don't have much wiggle room for floods at 1021.

[Brent]

Anyone else have a strange brlght light in their yard right now?

[Cpv17]

These two maps are quite a contradiction from each other.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018101800/gfs_apcpn_us_40.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

I don't think they are that much of a contraction. The NW TX rain depends on the path of Vicente's moisture and the Gulf rain depends on the path of a Gulf low. It does not take much rain to get above average in W TX so any amount of rain out there puts them above average.

I was referring to the southeast lol the Euro is more in line with it though.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is way different with Vicente. Stays too close to the coastline to strengthen.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12z GFS is way different with Vicente. Stays too close to the coastline to strengthen.

There was a run yesterday that showed that also I believe. 12Z GFS also has lost the -EPO through H220. With the very warm GoA I suspect the -EPO will return on future runs.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is way different with Vicente. Stays too close to the coastline to strengthen.

There was a run yesterday that showed that also I believe. 12Z GFS also has lost the -EPO through H220. With the very warm GoA I suspect the -EPO will return on future runs.

I think the 12z GFS is drunk

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12z GFS is way different with Vicente. Stays too close to the coastline to strengthen.

There was a run yesterday that showed that also I believe. 12Z GFS also has lost the -EPO through H220. With the very warm GoA I suspect the -EPO will return on future runs.

I think the 12z GFS is drunk

Agreed, currently we are under a pretty strong upper ridge but because of -EPO we are cool. According to the 12Z GFS under a pretty strong trough we would be warm, odd. That run just seems off to me. It is just about a complete opposite of the 12Z GEFS also. THE GEFS, GEPS and EPS all generally show polar blocking and an eastern trough for late month at this range I would go with that.

[utpmg]

Hmm, I was looking again at the list of historical Lake Travis "crests" from the NWS page: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/crests. ... e=historic

Historic Crests
(1) 710.44 ft on 12/25/1991
(2) 707.38 ft on 05/18/1957
(3) 705.11 ft on 07/07/1997
(4) 704.68 ft on 02/10/1992
(5) 701.50 ft on 07/06/2007
(6) 696.70 ft on 11/24/2004
(7) 693.50 ft on 07/07/2002
(8) 693.48 ft on 10/14/1987
(9) 692.69 ft on 06/07/2016
(10) 692.58 ft on 10/07/1959
(11) 692.42 ft on 04/18/1977
(12) 688.13 ft on 03/20/1998
(13) 687.29 ft on 02/22/1997

...and those numbers seem incomplete. There was a period of 692' in early 1968 that doesn't show up; it's on the LCRA dataset. (And I have a photo from that time, too.)

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z GFS is way different with Vicente. Stays too close to the coastline to strengthen.

There was a run yesterday that showed that also I believe. 12Z GFS also has lost the -EPO through H220. With the very warm GoA I suspect the -EPO will return on future runs.

I think the 12z GFS is drunk

Agreed. It actually does develop it into the 970s, grazes it along the coastline shortly after. I think the GFS is developing the circulation too far west. It shows consolidation south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but visible satellite suggests the circulation is quickly consolidating south of Guatemala. This may result a path that takes future Vicente further away from the Mexican coast

[Cpv17]

The Euro has widespread 2-3” for a good part of the state with some isolated 4-6” totals. Not too bad. I’ll take it!

[Haris]

The Euro has widespread 2-3” for a good part of the state with some isolated 4-6” totals. Not too bad. I’ll take it!

Umm. We don’t need that here in Austin lol yet.

Wait 2 weeks

Waters still rising

[Cpv17]

The Euro has widespread 2-3” for a good part of the state with some isolated 4-6” totals. Not too bad. I’ll take it!

Umm. We don’t need that here in Austin lol yet.

Wait 2 weeks

Waters still rising

Right! Lol but we need it here

[weatherdude1108]

I've heard people around work, etc. talk about how "unprecedented" this flooding is.

But it's not unprecedented. It happened with a record crest on Travis the 1991. Granted there are more developments in and around all the lakes' floodplains now.

But that, in a nutshell, is asking for trouble. Either people know the flood risk and don't care, or are ignorant of the risk building in a 100, 500, or 1,000 year floodplain. Then when it floods, they're shocked.

We live in Flash Flood Alley. Anyway, rant over.lol

[utpmg]

I haven't heard anyone who's been around here as long as I have call it "unprecedented." My family has certainly seen it this high a few times in the past. But I believe they've only recently redefined some of the flood plain scenarios. Specifically, the possible height over the spillway the water could be.