Texas Fall 2018

[Ntxw]

NAM has a high of 43 in Austin !!!!

I think the NAM is a little extreme getting many into the 30s. While it is chilly in Canada I don't think it is cold enough for something that extreme. However having mid day highs in the 40s is easy because of the moderate rain projected keeping daytime heating nil and a strong north/northwest wind. It will be cold Monday and Tuesday. Near record cold for the dates.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS rolling in, large parts of the metroplex getting 4+" of rain through Wednesday morning. Heaviest appears to be S/SW of the Metroplex.

[weatherdude1108]

12Z GFS rolling in, large parts of the metroplex getting 4+" of rain through Wednesday morning. Heaviest appears to be S/SW of the Metroplex.

http://i68.tinypic.com/f6vch.png

Part of that heaviest area looks like it is over the Lake Buchanan watershed.

[CaptinCrunch]

NAM has a high of 43 in Austin !!!!

I think the NAM is a little extreme getting many into the 30s. While it is chilly in Canada I don't think it is cold enough for something that extreme. However having mid day highs in the 40s is easy because of the moderate rain projected keeping daytime heating nil and a strong north/northwest wind. It will be cold Monday and Tuesday. Near record cold for the dates.

Chilly for sure 48-53 for highs here in the DFW area. I sure hope the Rams @ Denver game is on TV this weekend. High of 27 and snow forecast for the game!!

[gboudx]

Chilly for sure 48-53 for highs here in the DFW area. I sure hope the Rams @ Denver game is on TV this weekend. High of 27 and snow forecast for the game!!

It is on TV, but not in this area. I'll have it at my house since I have the NFL Sunday Ticket though.

[gpsnowman]

Chilly for sure 48-53 for highs here in the DFW area. I sure hope the Rams @ Denver game is on TV this weekend. High of 27 and snow forecast for the game!!

It is on TV, but not in this area. I'll have it at my house since I have the NFL Sunday Ticket though.

Storm2k party in Rockwall on Sunday.

[Ntxw]

Models generally keep things below normal through the end of the month, even when the northern plains moderates. Very El Nino like weather pattern. Precursor of the months to come.

[gboudx]

Chilly for sure 48-53 for highs here in the DFW area. I sure hope the Rams @ Denver game is on TV this weekend. High of 27 and snow forecast for the game!!

It is on TV, but not in this area. I'll have it at my house since I have the NFL Sunday Ticket though.

Storm2k party in Rockwall on Sunday.

LOL! I may even make chicken/sausage gumbo.

[Cpv17]

I have a question for anyone that can answer it, but I was just wondering what’s been keeping the heavier rains away from SETX? I’m not really complaining or anything, but it’s weird to me because usually we’re the wettest spot in the state. It seems like the Hill Country and up towards NTX has been getting most of the rain lately and that’s not usually a spot (especially the Hill Country) where it rains so much. Here where I live in Wharton we’ve only had about 2” of rain in the past month. Not to say that’s completely terrible, but other areas of the state have had significantly more than that.

[Ntxw]

I have a question for anyone that can answer it, but I was just wondering what’s been keeping the heavier rains away from SETX? I’m not really complaining or anything, but it’s weird to me because usually we’re the wettest spot in the state. It seems like the Hill Country and up towards NTX has been getting most of the rain lately and that’s not usually a spot (especially the Hill Country) where it rains so much. Here where I live in Wharton we’ve only had about 2” of rain in the past month. Not to say that’s completely terrible, but other areas of the state have had significantly more than that.

It is probably more complex than this but SE Texas benefits most when the western gulf is active with tropical activity like what happened mid to late summer. Houston has seen some decent rains it's just I think you are sitting it a bad luck donut perhaps. It will improve though with El Nino, we'll see some gulf lows this winter causing mischief for SE Texas with El Nino. The past few weeks to a couple of months the EPAC has been funneling in moisture from both tropical systems and a subtropical jet connected to the deep Pacific tropics. This kind of flow benefits the inland empires more I think.

You can see below 2 things. The flare up of tropical convection right above the El Nino box. Secondly the remnants of Sergio making pass from the Baja. Both GFS and Euro develops another strong Hurricane southwest of the Mexican coast that eventually will re curve. So Sergio may not be the only October rain event.

[Ntxw]

At 500mb the feature to watch is the persistence of the southwest/baja trough. This feature is a strong anomaly during weak and moderate El Ninos. It is the secret sauce to winter if it persists.

[weatherdude1108]

I have a question for anyone that can answer it, but I was just wondering what’s been keeping the heavier rains away from SETX? I’m not really complaining or anything, but it’s weird to me because usually we’re the wettest spot in the state. It seems like the Hill Country and up towards NTX has been getting most of the rain lately and that’s not usually a spot (especially the Hill Country) where it rains so much. Here where I live in Wharton we’ve only had about 2” of rain in the past month. Not to say that’s completely terrible, but other areas of the state have had significantly more than that.

That is interesting. Not sure how to answer this one(?). A pro met may need chime in. I'm guessing it's how the weather patterns have been traversing across the state, but not sure of the "why" part of it.

All I know is my backyard is just now starting to not feel like squishy PlayDoh when walking on it, after three days of dry-out time.

[Brent]

its crazy looking at the models here in Mid October with all this rain and much below normal temperatures and in every previous year since 2014 we were looking at record heat around this time...

I really hope this is a sign of things to come

[Cpv17]

I have a question for anyone that can answer it, but I was just wondering what’s been keeping the heavier rains away from SETX? I’m not really complaining or anything, but it’s weird to me because usually we’re the wettest spot in the state. It seems like the Hill Country and up towards NTX has been getting most of the rain lately and that’s not usually a spot (especially the Hill Country) where it rains so much. Here where I live in Wharton we’ve only had about 2” of rain in the past month. Not to say that’s completely terrible, but other areas of the state have had significantly more than that.

It is probably more complex than this but SE Texas benefits most when the western gulf is active with tropical activity like what happened mid to late summer. Houston has seen some decent rains it's just I think you are sitting it a bad luck donut perhaps. It will improve though with El Nino, we'll see some gulf lows this winter causing mischief for SE Texas with El Nino. The past few weeks to a couple of months the EPAC has been funneling in moisture from both tropical systems and a subtropical jet connected to the deep Pacific tropics. This kind of flow benefits the inland empires more I think.

You can see below 2 things. The flare up of tropical convection right above the El Nino box. Secondly the remnants of Sergio making pass from the Baja. Both GFS and Euro develops another strong Hurricane southwest of the Mexican coast that eventually will re curve. So Sergio may not be the only October rain event.

https://images2.imgbox.com/30/7d/qzsYHH6M_o.gif

Thanks for your input.

[Haris]

It’s partially because SE TX is closer to the stubborn H pressure ridge over the SE the last few weeks.

*I think*

[Brent]

It’s partially because SE TX is closer to the stubborn H pressure ridge over the SE the last few weeks.

*I think*

I would definitely concur with that, fall has been non-existent in the SE until Michael and even now may not be there for good

Does make you wonder if there will be a battleground over TX if the pattern holds into the winter though

[gboudx]

At 500mb the feature to watch is the persistence of the southwest/baja trough. This feature is a strong anomaly during weak and moderate El Ninos. It is the secret sauce to winter if it persists.

Hopefully we see one of those events where an arctic front of sufficient depth pushes through, and disturbances pinwheel off the trough bringing precip to parts of Texas. Wintry precip goldmine.

[Ntxw]

At 500mb the feature to watch is the persistence of the southwest/baja trough. This feature is a strong anomaly during weak and moderate El Ninos. It is the secret sauce to winter if it persists.

Hopefully we see one of those events where an arctic front of sufficient depth pushes through, and disturbances pinwheel off the trough bringing precip to parts of Texas. Wintry precip goldmine.

There will be a lot of happy campers. This exact pattern, if this were 2 months down the road, would be a significant snow event.

[Cpv17]

It’s partially because SE TX is closer to the stubborn H pressure ridge over the SE the last few weeks.

*I think*

This is what I was thinking too, but I like seeing different thoughts.

[bubba hotep]

Flash Flood Watch hoisted for DFW:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
312 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...

.A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Midnight tonight until
6 AM Sunday for areas generally along and north of the Interstate
20 corridor.