Texas Fall 2018

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/averytomascowx/status/1052208315214819329

[srainhoutx]

LCRA‏ @LCRA · 24m24 minutes ago
LCRA is closing lakes Travis, Marble Falls, LBJ, Inks and Buchanan effective immediately, until further notice.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately some beautiful communities in the Hill Country are under the gun with major flooding ongoing in Llano, Kingsland, and Marble Falls. Y'all have the info about the FM 2900 bridge collapsing ... and folks that was a concrete bridge on concrete slats ... absolutely stunning!

Another round of heavy rain coming later this week ... a very dire situation for the Hill Country, I'm afraid.

[weatherdude1108]

Unfortunately some beautiful communities in the Hill Country are under the gun with major flooding ongoing in Llano, Kingsland, and Marble Falls. Y'all have the info about the FM 2900 bridge collapsing ... and folks that was a concrete bridge on concrete slats ... absolutely stunning!

Another round of heavy rain coming later this week ... a very dire situation for the Hill Country, I'm afraid.

Classic example of too much of a good thing.

[srainhoutx]

Concern growing for later in the work week when a surge of deep tropical moisture surges into the Southern/Central Texas Gulf Coast. Some of the models suggest a weak area of low pressure may develop and spread inland across S Central Texas Thursday into Friday. Very heavy rainfall and additional Flash Flooding remain a real possibility in areas already impacted.

[Haris]

!!

[wxman22]

Models are also starting to form a potent gulf low next week, with very heavy rain and gusty winds, the 0z Euro even produces tropical storm force wind gust in the Gulf and along the coast fwiw. And the GFS develops it into the first Nor'easter of the season down the road. But its just something to watch for now...

[weatherdude1108]

They're opening a floodgate on Mansfield Dam. Mansfield Dam Lake Travis is essentially saving downtown Austin from the flooding they're seeing up on LBJ.

[srainhoutx]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS FROM THE CITY OF MARBLE FALLS... PLEASE
BE ADVISED THAT THE MARBLE FALLS WASTEWATER PLANT IS STRESSED DUE
TO FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES ARE ASKED TO MINIMIZE
USE OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT UTILIZES WASTEWATER. NO LAUNDRY, NO
WASHING DISHES, MINIMIZE TOILET FLUSHING, AND MINIMIZE SHOWERING.

[weatherdude1108]

They said that Lake Travis has risen 7 FEET since midnight! The coastline of Lake Travis is 65 miles long, so that's a phenomenal amount of water to make a lake like that rise so quickly!

[weatherdude1108]

They said they're opening 4 floodgates on Mansfield Dam of Lake Travis. Most open since the flood of 2007.

I superimposed the radar over the streamflows. More bankful stages, with a new bankful stage above Lake Buchanan.


Here are the lake levels.


https://hydromet.lcra.org/

[Haris]

Lake Travis to now rise to 695 feet!!!!!!

[dhweather]

Frightening flooding in Hill Country. Lake Travis expected to rise 15-20 FEET in the next 48 hours.


Lake Travis
Floodgate Operations and Forecasts
Last Update: Oct 16 2018 11:27AM
Inflows: Inflows to Lake Travis from are high.
Gate Operations: Gate operations to pass floodwaters through Mansfield Dam will begin at noon on Oct. 16. Up to four floodgates may be opened by 6 p.m. on Oct. 16. Operations may change with additional rainfall or runoff upstream of downstream of Mansfield Dam.
Lake level forecast: The level of Lake Travis is expected to rise within a range of 690 to 695 feet msl within the next 48 hours. Dangerous fast moving water is flowing through Lake Travis.
Max Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM
Last Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM

[dhweather]

Three day rain totals - over a foot in locations.

[weatherdude1108]

Frightening flooding in Hill Country. Lake Travis expected to rise 15-20 FEET in the next 48 hours.


Lake Travis
Floodgate Operations and Forecasts
Last Update: Oct 16 2018 11:27AM
Inflows: Inflows to Lake Travis from are high.
Gate Operations: Gate operations to pass floodwaters through Mansfield Dam will begin at noon on Oct. 16. Up to four floodgates may be opened by 6 p.m. on Oct. 16. Operations may change with additional rainfall or runoff upstream of downstream of Mansfield Dam.
Lake level forecast: The level of Lake Travis is expected to rise within a range of 690 to 695 feet msl within the next 48 hours. Dangerous fast moving water is flowing through Lake Travis.
Max Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM
Last Reading: 675.38 Oct 16 2018 11:30AM

Crazy!
They said the all-time high is 710 feet, back in 1991. That was also an El Nino year. It has never topped the spillway at 714 feet.

[dhweather]

24 hour window - Llano river at Llano

October 15, 2018, 6:55 AM. 4.29 feet. 2,330 CFS flow

October 15, 2018, 6:55 PM. 13.92 feet. 32,046 CFS flow

October 16, 2018, 6:55 AM. 39.91 feet 283,117 CFS flow

[1900hurricane]

Current inflows into Lake Travis are almost 100,000 cfs higher than they were in late June 2007.

[rwfromkansas]

This event will make Lake Travis full by itself. Crazy.

[dhweather]

Crazy to think this is not a record flood on the Llano River.




Historic Crests
(1) 41.50 ft on 06/14/1935
(2) 39.10 ft on 06/23/1997
(3) 32.60 ft on 09/10/1952
(4) 28.65 ft on 11/04/2000
(5) 22.07 ft on 11/17/2004

[Cpv17]

Crazy to think this is not a record flood on the Llano River.

https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/llat2_record.png


Historic Crests
(1) 41.50 ft on 06/14/1935
(2) 39.10 ft on 06/23/1997
(3) 32.60 ft on 09/10/1952
(4) 28.65 ft on 11/04/2000
(5) 22.07 ft on 11/17/2004

I agree with you. I can’t believe it’s not.