Texas Fall 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Had a good downpour overnight and more have developed this afternoon across Austin .

Picked up another .57” of today . The month total for me is now 9”

I got another 0.5 inch in the gauge today, putting my total since Labor Day of about 5 5 inches. It got to 80 at my house, but still "cool" for climo.

[Cpv17]

I know it’s the CMC but

[weatherdude1108]

I know it’s the CMC but

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018091200/gem_z850_vort_scus_41.png

Would mean more of a rain impact for my area.

The pressure is depicted lower (977) than Cat 3 or 4 Florence right off the coast on the same model (981). Ummmm. Granted this is 10 days out, and the only model I saw this on.

Tropical system (977mb) off the coast near Corpus between Corpus and Houston Friday night September 22nd


Florence (981mb) on Thursday September 13th, tomorrow afternoon off the coast of NC.

[weatherdude1108]

Another random shower early this morning around 5:20am. Got a quarter inch out of it. Wasn't even on radar(?). Amazing how the pattern did a 180 from dry and cracky to soggy and squishy, just since Labor Day.
No complaining here.

There are hints low 90s are coming back next week though. Ah well. We have our soil moisture replenished.

[rwfromkansas]

What is with all this drizzle? I thought it was supposed to be drier this week. If it's going to rain, rain. Don't spit.

Looks like we won't get anything from the upcoming TD in DFW either. Seems very hard to get rain from tropical systems up here. It's only happened a few times since I moved here, maybe only once. It either bends into Mexico or bends into Arkansas.

[Ntxw]

Models are starting to show 500mb ridge rearing its head behind Florence, but location of it is up in the air. GFS has 590dm+ over Texas while Euro has it a bit further east. Climo will help, but we'll see. It is nearing EPAC recurving time so hopefully we will get some assistance that way.

[dhweather]

Models are starting to show 500mb ridge rearing its head behind Florence, but location of it is up in the air. GFS has 590dm+ over Texas while Euro has it a bit further east. Climo will help, but we'll see. It is nearing EPAC recurving time so hopefully we will get some assistance that way.

Climo is working against you, ridge of death.

[Brent]

looks like 95L might be Kirk if it gets named. Joyce looks likely in the subtropics.

the CMC again has Isaac in the Western Gulf at day 10 threatening Texas, but the GFS which for the first time doesnt kill it is more towards Florida but has a recurving EPAC storm in Arizona at day 10

[WestTexEx]

Will I get thrown out of here if I ask what the models are telling us about the rainfall in Austin this weekend? I'm considering a drive from Midland to Austin Friday with a return Sunday. I did the same trip last weekend and had some pretty heavy rainfall to deal with on the drive, and honestly, I'm not interested in dealing with that two weekends in a row.
TIA.

[Brent]

the Euro/GFS even bring up some rain into DFW this weekend hmm

[Portastorm]

Will I get thrown out of here if I ask what the models are telling us about the rainfall in Austin this weekend? I'm considering a drive from Midland to Austin Friday with a return Sunday. I did the same trip last weekend and had some pretty heavy rainfall to deal with on the drive, and honestly, I'm not interested in dealing with that two weekends in a row.
TIA.

We are expecting 1-2" of rain here in Austin by the end of the weekend based on current data. Those projections may increase or decrease depending on 95L's behavior. If you're getting into town on Friday during the first half of the day, you should be fine. You may have to dodge a heavier shower or two between Llano and Austin. Saturday is supposed to be rainiest day here if it happens. By Sunday conditions should be a bit better. This is all assuming that 95L keeps moving to the south and southwest of Austin and comes ashore somewhere south of Corpus.

[Rgv20]

We again had some flooding down here at the RGV this past few night not as bad as the June Flood tho. September is by far the wettest month down here and so far it hasn't disappointed.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...Continued Threat of Flash Flooding Through Late Week...

.Deep tropical moisture and low pressure will combine to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas, but
especially along and east of the I69C corridor through Thursday.
As a tropical wave moves closer to Deep South Texas later this
week, additional deep tropical moisture will cause additional
flash flooding through at least the start of the upcoming
weekend.

TXZ250-251-253>257-351-353-130500-
/O.EXT.KBRO.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180915T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Southern Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-
Northern Hidalgo-
Including the cities of Falfurrias, Sarita, McAllen, Edinburg,
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen,
Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights,
and Laguna Vista
306 PM CDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of Deep South Texas, including the following areas,
Brooks, Coastal Cameron, Coastal Kenedy, Coastal Willacy,
Inland Cameron, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, Northern
Hidalgo, and Southern Hidalgo.

* Through Friday evening

* Pockets of 6 to 9 inches of rain have fallen across portions of
Brooks and Hidalgo Counties since early Monday morning.
Saturated soils in those areas will not require much additional
rainfall to produce excessive runoff. Additional rainfall of 1
to 3 inches can be expected, mainly along and east of the I69C
corridor. High rainfall rates with slow-moving showers and
storms will lead to possible flash flooding.

* Low-lying and poorly-draining areas as well as urban locations
could see widespread street flooding with water depth of
several feet. Heavy rainfall in a short period of time will
cause small streams and arroyos to fill quickly to bankfull,
possibly resulting in overflowing. Driving may be difficult to
impossible, and motorists are urged to find alternative
routes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Frye

[weatherdude1108]

Pouring down rain here right now at the house. Appears to be a lone cell in my area.

Having to wait it out to take dog out before bed.

Same thing at work today. Sunny, downpour, sunny, downpour, sunny.

Wild string of wetness. I am over 6 inches since Labor Day. I've lost count of exact total.lol. Ponding all over my backyard.

[Cpv17]

Euro run is very interesting tonight with Isaac.

[Brent]

Euro run is very interesting tonight with Isaac.

I was dozing off watching Florence's track and

[Cpv17]

Euro run is very interesting tonight with Isaac.

I was dozing off watching Florence's track and

http://i63.tinypic.com/2q9dmah.jpg

Gotta tip your hat to the CMC if it gets it right.

[Cpv17]

This looks pretty good!

[weatherdude1108]

You beat me to it! Was about to add those maps. I'll go ahead and add the 3-4 outlooks, for consistency.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:
You beat me to it! Was about to add those maps. I'll go ahead and add the 3-4 outlooks, for consistency.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

I’ve been hearing for the past couple days that things were supposed to dry out next week, but those maps don’t indicate that and that’s perfectly fine with me!

[Haris]