Texas Fall 2018

[Cpv17]

What’s up with the warm bias on the GFS? Euro has me at 31 next Wednesday morning while the GFS has me at 40.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Big issue the past few years has been the hadley cell and expanded ridging from the Pacific to the Baja/Southwest. Its no longer there and has been easy to trof. Evidence of our rains the past several months. Nino.

Qpf should increase once guidance captures the baja feature. If we can get the cold in a little faster and deeper it could get interesting for NTX

This is why i think a cool 1+2, cooler water off of mexico, and not much warmer than normal SST like we have had will help for winter storms.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

What’s up with the warm bias on the GFS? Euro has me at 31 next Wednesday morning while the GFS has me at 40.

If I remember clearly, this was a consistent problem with all of the models last winter.


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[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose had a blog post regarding El Nino. It appears, despite SSTs being in Niñoesque, the atmosphere hasn't quite coupled with the warm SSTs, putting the tropical Pacific in ENSO neutral territory. But they expect the ocean and atmosphere to couple at some point.

I assume this coupling would eventually help to solidify the Pacific moisture stream/subtropical jet into Texas to fuel whatever systems pop up. Anyway.

Thursday, November 8, 2018 1:44 PM

El Niño has not quite developed yet. That's the assessment from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center in Thursday's monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion. The tropical Pacific remained in ENSO neutral territory during October, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures stretching across the equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperatures have surpassed the threshold for the development of El Niño at most locations between the coast of South America and the International Date Line.

However, CPC forecasters note that atmospheric convection, or thunderstorm activity, remains slightly suppressed near the Date Line and over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed mainly over the eastern Pacific during October, while weak upper-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the far western Pacific. During El Niño, upper-level winds typically blow from east to west. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were both near zero during October. Both of these indices are typically negative during El Niño.

So despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, it appears the atmosphere hasn't quite coupled or connected with the warm waters just yet. As a result, CPC forecasters state the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system still reflects ENSO-neutral conditions.

The majority of long-range forecast models predict sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will remain above the threshold for the development of El Niño through the rest of the fall and winter, and even into spring.

The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple with the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance).

Bob

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

FWD on the Monday "threat"

Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon/Sunday night as an
upper trough moves southeast out of the Central Rockies and
another cold front crosses the Red River. This system will bring
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to much of the region
with the best rain chances on Monday. There are some indications
in the models that a brief rain/snow mix will be possible across
the northwest zones on Monday, but this solution is not supported
by all the models and the more likely scenario is that the deep
cold air will lag behind the precipitation. Even if there was a
brief rain/snow mix across the northwest zones, surface
temperatures would likely be above freezing (mid to upper 30s)
with no impacts.

[Jarodm12]

I'll say this though the nam at 84 hrs has the system slowed down and a 1050mb high pressure

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

[starsfan65]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

How could it do this all of the sudden?

[TXWeatherMan]

I'll say this though the nam at 84 hrs has the system slowed down and a 1050mb high pressure

That would be very strong for this time of year

[Ntxw]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

[starsfan65]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

so we have to accept it for what it is.

[Brent]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

How could it do this all of the sudden?

because the Euro is the better model usually

That being said I echo what ntxw said... it's always been a longshot but its also not a done deal yet

[SnowintheFalls]

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

so we have to accept it for what it is.

Such is Texas weather. You have to learn to enjoy the journey and temper enthusiasm for the potential outcome. We haven't even started winter yet so there will be many journeys ahead!

[Cerlin]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

That’s true—if it doesn’t snow, we’ve still got a long winter with plenty of chances!!

[Haris]

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

That’s true—if it doesn’t snow, we’ve still got a long winter with plenty of chances!!

But I don’t want to wait that long

[gboudx]

My youngest son has a soccer game in Plano at 8pm. I was hoping that if it was gonna rain, it would’ve started by now. But no. If it does rain, it’s gonna be wet and cold. Ugh.

[SnowintheFalls]

It seems to have gotten quiet in here. I for one am looking forward to the colder weather! Looks like we should have our first freeze and potentially be in the 20's tomorrow night here in Wichita Falls.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS flipped back towards the Euro.

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

Yea, snow at DFW is really rare in November. I can only find 3 or 4 events in the record (depending on what data you look at) but the current setup does look similar to 11/2/51.

[Captmorg70]

How could it do this all of the sudden?

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

Yea, snow at DFW is really rare in November. I can only find 3 or 4 events in the record (depending on what data you look at) but the current setup does look similar to 11/2/51.

Where do you find old storm data? I think that it snowed around my birthday, 11/15 about 20 years or so ago. But I’m not sure where to find old data like that. It was in Cooke county btw

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't get too worked up over either solution. From the very beginning this was an outside chance of happening. It has been a novelty to model watch. It will get cold for November. Snow is icing if it happens at all.

Yea, snow at DFW is really rare in November. I can only find 3 or 4 events in the record (depending on what data you look at) but the current setup does look similar to 11/2/51.

Where do you find old storm data? I think that it snowed around my birthday, 11/15 about 20 years or so ago. But I’m not sure where to find old data like that. It was in Cooke county btw

This is one of the more user friendly sites out there for viewing data https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/