Texas Fall 2018

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1836
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1741 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:24 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:The year 2000 was an epic year as a kid in Kansas. That December had snow on the ground most of the month with multiple small snow events. Frankly, while I had a couple big snows, that is more memorable since it didn't melt off in a few days. I found the cooperative observer report online for that month where I grew up. Looks like 3 snow events and 9.5 inches total for the month. There was snow on the ground from Dec. 11 to the 31st. I have never recalled anything similar. That was one of those months that got me into weather. So, if we are on pace to match November 2000, I hope that's a good omen for Texas.

2000 brought us the epic New Year's Eve snow storm. That was about the first one that I have vivid memory of. That was the same event as the A&M vs MS St Independence Bowl.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_2000-12-31_snow


I was just talking to someone about that game but we couldn't remember the year. Typically, A&M vs State would be of no interest to me but I remember watching that because of the snow.
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1742 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:04 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:The year 2000 was an epic year as a kid in Kansas. That December had snow on the ground most of the month with multiple small snow events. Frankly, while I had a couple big snows, that is more memorable since it didn't melt off in a few days. I found the cooperative observer report online for that month where I grew up. Looks like 3 snow events and 9.5 inches total for the month. There was snow on the ground from Dec. 11 to the 31st. I have never recalled anything similar. That was one of those months that got me into weather. So, if we are on pace to match November 2000, I hope that's a good omen for Texas.

2000 brought us the epic New Year's Eve snow storm. That was about the first one that I have vivid memory of. That was the same event as the A&M vs MS St Independence Bowl.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_2000-12-31_snow


I was just talking to someone about that game but we couldn't remember the year. Typically, A&M vs State would be of no interest to me but I remember watching that because of the snow.


I was a Freshman at A&M that year and drove from Longview (my hometown) to Shreveport to tailgate in 22 degree weather. Then the skies opened up... my God that drive home was gnarly in 6 inches of snow.
3 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
cctxhurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1149
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1743 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:38 am

Image

It actually got colder than that down here.
1 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1836
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1744 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:48 am

Ntxw wrote:DFW is now -6.8F below normal for the month. There is still no signicant above normal in sight. At best we get to near normal before cooling down again for a few days late week. Also Thanksgiving is now starting to look stormy.



The Euro isn't as stormy across Texas as the GFS & FV3. The models have been bumping the better pattern for rain out in time, but that is pretty common for a pattern shift. My Nov call was below/above, so I need a couple of solid wet systems for that to verify lol

In the longer range, CPC is going warmer beyond D10 and in Weeks 3 & 4. However, they highlight some uncertainty in the evolution of the MJO and how the low frequency background state responds. As others have noted, a period of -NAO looks to be setting up with neutral PNA and -EPO, that is a cold look for Texas.

Image

Not surprisingly, the Euro EPS has trended colder in the longer range but has some drier risk. The one draw back is that WCAN isn't really building any impressive cold during this transition. In Jan and Feb the air is plenty cold up there even without big anomalies but this is still early, climo wise. All that said, I'm not really seeing any winter wx risk through early Dec but I hope this is a sign of what the overall pattern will be this winter.
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1158
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1745 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:18 pm

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

Image

Image

Image
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33150
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1746 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:36 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.


no question next timeframe I'm intrigued in for wintry potential. Until then just a question of how much it rains towards Thanksgiving
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1747 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:42 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.


no question next timeframe I'm intrigued in for wintry potential. Until then just a question of how much it rains towards Thanksgiving



At least Thanksgiving will feel like Thanksgiving and not 75 damn degrees.
8 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3146
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Plano, TX (N Dal)

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1748 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:30 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_62.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_62.png


As noted earlier in the thread, this isn't the first run of this model to show a favorable setup in that timeframe either, so its got my attention. Still wayyy out in fantasyland though. Need a lot more runs, and for other models to catch on, before I start taking it even remotely seriously.
0 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3737
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1749 Postby gboudx » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:42 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.


no question next timeframe I'm intrigued in for wintry potential. Until then just a question of how much it rains towards Thanksgiving



At least Thanksgiving will feel like Thanksgiving and not 75 damn degrees.


I'm hoping the same for Christmas. We spend it in New Orleans and wore shorts the past 2-3 years.
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33150
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1750 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:05 pm

DFW was colder this morning than the entire winter of 15-16 :roflmao: :double:

I just hope next time its this cold there's a snowstorm with it
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
TheProfessor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2412
Age: 22
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: From Southlake Tx Now studying in Columbus Ohio.

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1751 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:32 pm

I'm starting to worry about the icing potential here. The high temps busted and we didn't get above freezing today. Although lately according to the HRRR I get saved by Sleet. Areas just to my south and southwest aren't so lucky though. Wouldn't be surprised if an Ice Storm Warning went up for them as the criteria is .25+" for the FWA. Even cutting some HRRR totals in half would still meet that criteria lol.
1 likes   
[img][/img]Pleases do not base information on my forecast, I am an amateur!

P.S I am not a real Professor!

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1836
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1752 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:37 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111412/fv3p_z500a_namer_62.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111412/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111412/fv3p_T2ma_namer_62.png


The fun thing about that run is that WCAN is an absolute icebox at Hr 384 lol
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2614
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Sugar Land, Tx

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1753 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:38 pm

Brent wrote:DFW was colder this morning than the entire winter of 15-16 :roflmao: :double:

I just hope next time its this cold there's a snowstorm with it


Same here hahaha
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1887
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1754 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:40 pm

Have NWS forecasts always included frost? I do not recall seeing that.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6424
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1755 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:19 pm

:uarrow: Models hinting at the blocking ridge setting up over Greenland by the start of December.

This could be the start of a -NAO taking shape as we get in December. We will know in a couple of weeks at least.
2 likes   
Monitoring the 2018-2019 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 33150
Age: 30
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1756 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:49 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Have NWS forecasts always included frost? I do not recall seeing that.


I've seen it before at the beginning of the season before the big freezes
1 likes   
#neversummer

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1887
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1757 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:16 pm

Down too 29 here already.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 16482
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1758 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:55 pm

You know, late this weekend it's going to end up a little colder than what the models showed a week ago. I wonder if this is going to be the trend this year. Sunday in NTX is likely to be falling throughout the day from the upper 40s to the lower 40s.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

TXWeatherMan
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:20 am
Location: Montgomery TX

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1759 Postby TXWeatherMan » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:07 pm

The 18z FV3 has some very cold air waiting to come down around the end of the month.
1 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1158
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm

Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1760 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:You know, late this weekend it's going to end up a little colder than what the models showed a week ago. I wonder if this is going to be the trend this year. Sunday in NTX is likely to be falling throughout the day from the upper 40s to the lower 40s.


Yep. Another thing I’ve noticed too is the models having an east bias in the medium to long range with the cold air only to shift back west in the short.
1 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests