Texas Fall 2018

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2141 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:16 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:Out of curiosity, what is the difference in the GFS model and the FV3-GFS?


FV3 will replace the GFS. Not so much that it is a whole new weather model but rather the computing and physics of the GFS will change to the new system. Better data assimilation allows the new dynamic core to have better skill scores, trying to close the gap on the Euro. Each year essentially the GFS gets improvements in calculating formulas and computing power but this will be the first nearly complete change of the core dynamics of how the model is run. It's like gutting a car for a new and better engine.


Thanks Ntxw! I hope it is an improvement over the GFS.


Well the FV3 did a very good job with the last artic blast we had a couple weeks ago. It was the first model to latch onto the cold.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2142 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:17 pm

Before we get to any cold weather the HRRR has a line of supercells over the metro after dark tomorrow :double:

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2143 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:14 pm

Euro Weeklies are much improved from the Monday run.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2144 Postby Haris » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:21 pm

Yeah was just about to post that. Quite chilly for the S :cheesy:

Side note: For the month of November, I have ended up with 2.19" of rain. 1" below normal. Most of it came during the 1st week. Not terrible but rain is still overdue
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2145 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:23 pm

So maybe the winter folklore is true. Tornadoes and severe weather mean snow in a week. It happened in houston earlier this month!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2146 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:30 pm

0z GFS is totally different than the 18z FV GFS... zero cold air

CMC also not even close
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2147 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:57 pm

Brent wrote:0z GFS is totally different than the 18z FV GFS... zero cold air

CMC also not even close


I’m sure it’ll change 100 times.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2148 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:59 pm

The last few runs of the GFS are really cutting back on rain totals for next weeks system as well. Looking more like the Euro now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2149 Postby Captmorg70 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:10 am

Cpv17 wrote:The last few runs of the GFS are really cutting back on rain totals for next weeks system as well. Looking more like the Euro now.


The CMC has 4” in DFW in the same time frame. With a week out I think right now we just need to keep tabs on the system and the cold. Run to run there will be change. Same way the Dec 3rd system is still changing back a forth.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2150 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:24 am

FV GFS warmer at 0z no wintry in DFW

Long way to go with this one
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2151 Postby SnowintheFalls » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:20 am

Brent wrote:FV GFS warmer at 0z no wintry in DFW

Long way to go with this one


At least the FV3 is showing cold nearby though.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2152 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:46 am

Euro is mostly rain but looks like there may be a little and I mean little backside snow as it ends next Saturday morning, good snow up in Oklahoma
Last edited by Brent on Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2153 Postby Haris » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:56 am

good euro run. a lot wetter too
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2154 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:09 am

Haris wrote:good euro run. a lot wetter too


Nice! Hope this is the start of a good trend.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2155 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:16 am

My Weatherbug app is giving me a 30% chance of a rain/snow mix here in Wharton for next Saturday. Makes me wonder what model they are using cuz I haven’t seen any that have snow this far south. It’s kind of weird cuz usually that app is conservative.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2156 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:14 am

Air is warm and juicy on this last day of November. Will be interesting to see how far west the severe threat advances this evening.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2157 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:12 am

Hi res models don't really show anything for DFW today but the Euro hits NE areas pretty hard.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2158 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:16 am

Friendly reminder today is the last day to post in this thread. At midnight all discussion will be moved to the Winter Thread for meteorological Winter Dec-Jan-Feb!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2159 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:59 am

On this last day of November 2018 the current monthly mean is 52.0 @ -4.8 below average. We wont get as warm today with the cloud cover so November is locked to end with a below average mean.

This will make Fall 2018 for NTX the coolest since 2009, and wettest on record :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#2160 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:19 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:On this last day of November 2018 the current monthly mean is 52.0 @ -4.8 below average. We wont get as warm today with the cloud cover so November is locked to end with a below average mean.

This will make Fall 2018 for NTX the coolest since 2009, and wettest on record :ggreen:


Today will likely keep the average up a little bit for the month but as you said well below normal from start to finish. In fact Fall 2018 will finish somewhere a little bit more than 65F average which barely misses top 10. 65F is right at #10. Considering how warm Falls have been the past 20-25 years it's been a long, long time since a true cold Fall..
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