Texas Fall 2018

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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#921 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:51 am

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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#922 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:16 am

LCRA to open 4 additional flood gates on Lake Buchanan today for a total of 8 flood gates open. Inflow into Lake Travis expect to cause elevation levels to rise to 700 ft. Serious flood conditions expected to continue as additional rainfall is expected Thursday into Friday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#923 Postby Haris » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:49 am

Wow! Lake Travis is just going higher!

With more floodgates open in at Buchanan, forecasts call for 700ft it easily higher.

Haven’t seen this ever!

More rain Thursday won’t help
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#924 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:16 am

Latest from LCRA:
Lake Travis is expected to rise to 705 to 710 feet msl by Friday, Oct. 19.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#925 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:44 am

12z GFS has another 4-6" for DFW over the next week :rain: :rain:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#926 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:49 am

utpmg wrote:Latest from LCRA:
Lake Travis is expected to rise to 705 to 710 feet msl by Friday, Oct. 19.


710.4 is the record. :double:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#927 Postby gboudx » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:54 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS has another 4-6" for DFW over the next week :rain: :rain:


Ok. Gonna start building an Ark this weekend.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#928 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:36 pm



It sucks seeing this for me. I’m basically in a donut hole with red all around me, but this looks to be pretty accurate. I’m in the 2-3” zone on this map while almost everyone else has had double that amount or more with the exception of south and west Texas and the panhandle.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#929 Postby Cerlin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:47 pm

12z GFS has another significant cold front on Halloween. Snow in east Texas down to Mexico, DFW in the 30s. :froze:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#930 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:48 pm

SAT currently sits at 4th wettest fall (Sep-Nov), and we are only halfway through! Currently up to 20.39 inches, with 1998 holding the record at 23.04 inches.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#931 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/d2/o27Ao1IG_o.gif


The CPC has ridiculously high probabilities of rain for Texas. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such high probabilities so widespread throughout the entire state. They didn’t even have it that high for Harvey. It even has me here in SETX in the bullseye. The thing is though is that why do they have such high probabilities for Texas during this timeframe when none of the models are backing this up? Sure the models have most of Texas getting at least a few inches of rain, but you’d think with those types of probabilities that the models would be painting widespread totals of 5-10”+ for most of the state. Also, the CPC has SETX in the bullseye when the models have the bullseye for rain over central and north TX. I just can’t make any sense of that CPC forecast. I saw the 10 day forecast for Houston last night on the news and they also didn’t really have anything too crazy regarding rain chances on there either. They had a 60% chance for rain Friday and Saturday and one day next week had 60%, but that’s it. The rest of the days were like 20-30%. They weren’t even mentioning anything about any significant rain events headed our way. Also, the WPC forecast only had around 1” of rain for the next week for SETX.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#932 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:17 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/d2/o27Ao1IG_o.gif


The CPC has ridiculously high probabilities of rain for Texas. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such high probabilities so widespread throughout the entire state. They didn’t even have it that high for Harvey. It even has me here in SETX in the bullseye. The thing is though is that why do they have such high probabilities for Texas during this timeframe when none of the models are backing this up? Sure the models have most of Texas getting at least a few inches of rain, but you’d think with those types of probabilities that the models would be painting widespread totals of 5-10”+ for most of the state. Also, the CPC has SETX in the bullseye when the models have the bullseye for rain over central and north TX. I just can’t make any sense of that CPC forecast. I saw the 10 day forecast for Houston last night on the news and they also didn’t really have anything too crazy regarding rain chances on there either. They had a 60% chance for rain Friday and Saturday and one day next week had 60%, but that’s it. The rest of the days were like 20-30%. They weren’t even mentioning anything about any significant rain events headed our way. Also, the WPC forecast only had around 1” of rain for the next week for SETX.


The overall 500mb historical analogs suggest the pattern that has been in place continues to feature rainfall across the state so I do think the CPC probabilities are good. It is a percentile forecast not qpf forecast that the WPC has. In general the El Nino pattern of wet southern US will continue. The rain forecast will fluctuate with the Hurricane, as you know, is hard to pin down where.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#933 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:18 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9f/d2/o27Ao1IG_o.gif


The CPC has ridiculously high probabilities of rain for Texas. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such high probabilities so widespread throughout the entire state. They didn’t even have it that high for Harvey. It even has me here in SETX in the bullseye. The thing is though is that why do they have such high probabilities for Texas during this timeframe when none of the models are backing this up? Sure the models have most of Texas getting at least a few inches of rain, but you’d think with those types of probabilities that the models would be painting widespread totals of 5-10”+ for most of the state. Also, the CPC has SETX in the bullseye when the models have the bullseye for rain over central and north TX. I just can’t make any sense of that CPC forecast. I saw the 10 day forecast for Houston last night on the news and they also didn’t really have anything too crazy regarding rain chances on there either. They had a 60% chance for rain Friday and Saturday and one day next week had 60%, but that’s it. The rest of the days were like 20-30%. They weren’t even mentioning anything about any significant rain events headed our way. Also, the WPC forecast only had around 1” of rain for the next week for SETX.
I think the models may be underestimating the moisture that Vicente will throw into Texas.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#934 Postby Haris » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:21 pm

Image

This is NOT a good !!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#935 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:31 pm


He's the only person I've seen say this. Not saying it's not accurate, but LCRA had a press conf at 1:00 but hasn't updated any of their online or twitter feed. Very frustrating. I don't know what they said.Last I saw on their website was re: Buchanan opening four additional gates.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#936 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:33 pm

Ensembles and op runs showing -EPO, -AO and -NAO by the end of Oct. The cold, wet pattern continues. At this rate we could be talking wintery precip by the Halloween timeframe which is not unheard of but very rare.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#937 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:42 pm

Skimmed the replay of the PC: indeed, Buchanan with 8 open may open more. Mansfield 4 open maybe 4 more in next 24hr
Look out below.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#938 Postby gboudx » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:50 pm

Cerlin wrote:12z GFS has another significant cold front on Halloween. Snow in east Texas down to Mexico, DFW in the 30s. :froze:


This would make for an interesting CaptinCrunch Halloween forecast of winter. :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#939 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:52 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Ensembles and op runs showing -EPO, -AO and -NAO by the end of Oct. The cold, wet pattern continues. At this rate we could be talking wintery precip by the Halloween timeframe which is not unheard of but very rare.


Latest GFS had wintry precip as far south as the mountains in Mexico. Wild :eek:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#940 Postby utpmg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:03 pm

From the LCRA 1 PM press conference: Last week, Lake Travis got more water than the city of Austin uses in four years.
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