Ralph's Weather wrote:Ensembles and op runs showing -EPO, -AO and -NAO by the end of Oct. The cold, wet pattern continues. At this rate we could be talking wintery precip by the Halloween timeframe which is not unheard of but very rare.
Latest GFS had wintry precip as far south as the mountains in Mexico. Wild
First snow of the season was reported overnight/this morning in the higher terrain on the Baja Peninsula this morning.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:25 pm
by Cpv17
A few weeks ago I researched websites where I could find precipitation totals and came across a site called iweathernet.com
Does anyone know how accurate it is because it’s really fun to use??
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:35 pm
by CaptinCrunch
gboudx wrote:
Cerlin wrote:12z GFS has another significant cold front on Halloween. Snow in east Texas down to Mexico, DFW in the 30s.
This would make for an interesting CaptinCrunch Halloween forecast of winter.
By George it would! lol
Current weather patteren, El Nino, early cold spell, record rains....I don't see high temps getting much above 70 for the remainder of the month, and lows should continue in the upper 40's, lower 50's.
Last years Halloween analogy didn't pan out as I had hoped I said Winter 2017/18 would be colder than average with average precip. As it turned out Winter ended slighty warmer and much wetter than average (Feb 11" of rain) even though we did have more official freezes (25) than the previous 2 winters (11), (17).
So that puts my Halloween Analogy record @ 12-4 (75%) correctly predicted since I started.
If we look at El Nino's following back/back La Nina's there are 3 since 1950, and all 3 were cold with snow/ice events.
1972/73 1976/77 2009/10
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:25 pm
by 1900hurricane
The LCRA says they may open four more floodgates at Mansfield Dam, bringing the total up to eight. The four open right now are releasing about 25,000 cfs. Using the rather safe assumption that doubling the number of open floodgates will approximately double the outgoing streamflow, and combining it with LCRA's release policy, that infers that LCRA seems to be expecting a crest somewhere north of 710 feet.
Our two cold/wet Halloweens (1991 and 1993) both featured a -EPO and a ejecting western trough. This seems like a likely pattern for this year also.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:13 pm
by rwfromkansas
Another .60 in north Fort Worth. Heavier than I expected today.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:26 pm
by Brent
rwfromkansas wrote:Another .60 in north Fort Worth. Heavier than I expected today.
yup makes me wonder if the dry weekend that's being talked about will actually verify...
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:03 pm
by Ntxw
DFW airport is now up to 11" for October (still raining at this hour). We are just blasting our way through monthly rain records this year.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:05 pm
by TXWeatherMan
I love cold and dreary weather, but I’m ready for a front to come through with blue bird skies and a strong north wind after it passes. As long as it’s cold I won’t do much complaining though.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:14 pm
by Ntxw
Something to watch and many have noted with the early nuances. Jet extension from the Pacific will cut underneath some blocking in the high latitudes. Such a pattern will bring down some cold air and with the undercutting jet, potential for a big storm across the country the week of Halloween. While any snow or ice chances is slim, you always have to watch these weak to moderate El Ninos to surprise us. I would not the least be surprised if the threat of an early freeze may happen. These below normal temperatures is here to stay.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:31 pm
by Haris
Went to the park here in Lakeway.
No words !
4 miles from my casa
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:33 pm
by bubba hotep
DFW has passed 46" of rain for the year to date, that moves '18 to 1st overall for YTD passing '73 - 45.03" and '07 - 45.79. DFW is also now nearly 7" ahead of '15 pace #GoingfortheRecord! Also, a Top 5 year is guaranteed, even if the airport doesn't get another drop of rain this year. It is likely that the Top 2 rainfall total years will be '15 & '18 after this year
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:07 pm
by Ptarmigan
Haris wrote:
utpmg wrote:
Haris wrote:Lake Travis now 691.
Officially in the top 10 highest water level on record.
Sorry... 692 but we all know it'll get there in 1 hour or so LOL...
From CBS Austin Met
I notice lot of them occur during El Nino (1957, 1959, 1987, 1991-1992, 1997, and 2004) or when El Nino is fading away into La Nina (2007 and 2016).
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:28 am
by Brent
0z GFS has an area of rain approaching a foot just west and northwest of DFW through next week, yet another heavy rain setup mid week next week as an EPAC cyclone goes directly overhead
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:40 am
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:0z GFS has an area of rain approaching a foot just west and northwest of DFW through next week, yet another heavy rain setup mid week next week as an EPAC cyclone goes directly overhead
For my sake I wish that blob in the Gulf was a lil further north lol we’ve only had 3” here in the past 5 weeks.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:53 am
by Cpv17
These two maps are quite a contradiction from each other.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:42 am
by weatherdude1108
000 FXUS64 KEWX 180910 AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 410 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... For today and into Friday a disturbance will rotate around the western side of the upper level high situated across the Gulf Coast interacting with very moist air to create more scattered light to moderate showers across the area. The best chance of any of these heavier showers will be later today, through the overnight hours into Friday morning. With additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, with isolated totals up to 4 inches we have extended the Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning. Beyond Friday morning the watch may need to be reconfigured as the threat for heavier rain will shift from across the Rio Grande Plains to focus on the Texas Hill Country. This disturbance will drag in rich Gulf moisture and increase precipitable water values to 1.9-2.1 inches for late today through Friday (check out the Wednesday evening update AFD for a more in- depth explanation on PW). These values are well into the 90th percentile for this time of year and could translate into pockets of heavier rainfall. Soils, especially across the Edwards Plateau (from Real to Kerr counties) and Hill Country (from Gillespie to Llano to Burnet counties), are so saturated that even 1 to 2 inches of rain will cause increased runoff and could lead to additional river rises or flooded road ways. Over the last 3 days anywhere between 4 and 12 inches of rainfall have fallen on the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country so these areas remain the focus for the flash flood threat, but moderate to heavy rainfall could work into the I-35 corridor today and tonight as well leading to their inclusion in the watch. Afternoon highs will continue to run about 10 degrees below seasonal normals, with lows right around where they should be for mid October.
With the saturated soils across parts of South Central Texas and the continued wet forecast this remains a dangerous situation as rainfall from the last few days continues to work its way through area rivers. The Lower Colorado River Authority announced that by mid-day Thursday up to 8 flood gates at Mansfield Dam could be opened (4 are currently releasing about 25,000 cfs down the Colorado) to move some of the water from Lake Travis down the Colorado. Lake Travis, as of 3am is at just over 700 feet msl, the 6th highest the lake has ever been (Visit the NWS AHPS page and search for MSDT2 to view the other past crests). The Devils River in Val Verde County, the Nueces River in Dimmit County, and the Frio River in Frio County all continue to be in flood this morning as well.
We urge residents and visitors to South Central Texas to monitor closely the weather conditions for the next several days as any rainfall amounts could lead to additional flash flooding or river flooding. Also, those along the Colorado River should monitor information coming from the Lower Colorado River Authority concerning releases from area lakes and take needed actions to protect lives and property along the Colorado.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... The longterm forecast is a mixed bag of good news and bad news. The good news is that on Saturday a large trough will dig out of Canada across the eastern half of the U.S. and drag a cold front through Texas. While this will act as a focus for more rain during the day on Saturday the front should clear out precipitation for Saturday night through Sunday night, other than some isolated showers across the Rio Grande Plains. This should give a good 24 hours for water to work through area rivers, with no additional rainfall. The front will also help to knock down temperatures that will have rebounded to afternoon highs near 70 by Saturday (still below normal), back down into the lower 60s. A lucky few may see some peaks of sun on Sunday though mostly cloudy skies should prevail.
Now the bad news...there is more rain in the forecast for the first half of next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the persistent upper level low pressure system that has been sitting across the Southwest U.S. finally ejected eastward across the Southern Plains. This in itself will provide a catalyst for another round of potentially heavy rainfall beginning on Monday and lasting through Wednesday night. What bares watching is the possibility than a Pacific tropical system gets pulled into the through as it traverses across Texas. This system has yet to form, but is shown in both the ECMWF and GFS and NHC currently has a 90% chance of formation along the southern Mexican coast. The GFS has the trough picking up the tropical system Wednesday into Thursday producing widespread heavy rainfall across much of Texas. The ECMWF is faster with the main trough pulling it through Texas as tropical system makes landfall. The difference here will be the amount of moisture the trough has to work with. With all of the Pacific moisture the GFS dumps 5-10 inches from San Angelo to Abilene, while the ECMWF with the miss-match of trough first, then tropical system shows only 2-4 inches. There are a lot of factors that will come into play next week from the timing of the trough moving eastward, to the location, strength, and timing of the yet-to- form Pacific Tropical System, and how much the area gets to dry out this weekend. How these come together will determine how much and where the rain falls during the first half of next week and what additional impacts will be felt across South Central Texas.
Probably the *best* news is that both long-term global models show ridging trying to work into Texas behind the trough and a drier forecast beginning Thursday of next week.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:30 am
by Ralph's Weather
Cpv17 wrote:These two maps are quite a contradiction from each other.
I don't think they are that much of a contraction. The NW TX rain depends on the path of Vicente's moisture and the Gulf rain depends on the path of a Gulf low. It does not take much rain to get above average in W TX so any amount of rain out there puts them above average.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:37 am
by ThunderSleetDreams
I could do without the rain in SE TX. I need some dry Saturday’s for some tailgating and hunting.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:53 am
by Yukon Cornelius
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I could do without the rain in SE TX. I need some dry Saturday’s for some tailgating and hunting.
I'm with you. I never thought I would say that I'm tired of the rain, but I definitely am. Our land is right on the Red River and due to the flooding we haven't been able to check feeders or even get down into the bottom areas for 2 weeks. We've gotten more than enough rain, its time to stop for hunting season.
I said Winter 2017/18 would be colder than average with average precip. As it turned out Winter ended slighty warmer and much wetter than average (Feb 11" of rain) even though we did have more official freezes (25) than the previous 2 winters (11), (17). 
