Texas Spring 2019

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1541 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 18, 2019 10:52 pm

Brent wrote:Several trees down from the line earlier up here in Wylie wind definitely surprised me a bit


Headed out earlier to get some beer and there were a bunch of tress down across Wylie and Sachse.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1542 Postby Brent » Sat May 18, 2019 11:14 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:Several trees down from the line earlier up here in Wylie wind definitely surprised me a bit


Headed out earlier to get some beer and there were a bunch of tress down across Wylie and Sachse.


yeah I was at work watching it on and off on radar and was pretty yawn about it figuring it was probably not gonna be that noteworthy(I mean we've had so many lines like this) but everyone was worked up thinking it was gonna be really bad and then I notice the rain is falling sideways and not 10 seconds later, the power goes out :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1543 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 18, 2019 11:38 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:Several trees down from the line earlier up here in Wylie wind definitely surprised me a bit


Headed out earlier to get some beer and there were a bunch of tress down across Wylie and Sachse.


yeah I was at work watching it on and off on radar and was pretty yawn about it figuring it was probably not gonna be that noteworthy(I mean we've had so many lines like this) but everyone was worked up thinking it was gonna be really bad and then I notice the rain is falling sideways and not 10 seconds later, the power goes out :roflmao:


It was very impressive for Wylie
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1544 Postby gpsnowman » Sun May 19, 2019 10:01 am

What a day! The north breeze has wiped out the humidity with not a cloud in the sky. It's Miller Time.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1545 Postby ravyrn » Sun May 19, 2019 10:42 am

Real bad flash flood in Maydelle last night. I’m stuck at my mom’s as the road is washed out both ways. Unfortunately people chose to try and drive in the flood waters.

https://imgur.com/a/MNz0QjS
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1546 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 19, 2019 1:32 pm

89 degrees here with a 73 degree dew point making it feel like 98.. I believe summer is here.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1547 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 19, 2019 3:09 pm

Bit of a SE expansion now putting the NW 1/2 of DFW in the Slight and not too far from ENH.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1548 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 19, 2019 5:42 pm

OKC schools are closing tomorrow...for weather that will hit after school is out. Crazy stuff.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1549 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun May 19, 2019 5:51 pm

:uarrow: OKC, Moore and Norman.

With two of the worst killer tornadoes in recent U.S. history striking the OKC area, I think such actions are understandable.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1550 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 19, 2019 5:57 pm

I know, just the timing is much later. But, maybe lots of kids would be staying home anyway due to the past storms to where it would be a wasted school day.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1551 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 19, 2019 6:35 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:OKC schools are closing tomorrow...for weather that will hit after school is out. Crazy stuff.


Had some discussions with some folks about this kind of stuff. Structurally speaking, most schools (modern built) may actually be safer than most homes. There are more walls, better construction. But that is a sensitive subject.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1552 Postby Brent » Sun May 19, 2019 7:15 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: OKC, Moore and Norman.

With two of the worst killer tornadoes in recent U.S. history striking the OKC area, I think such actions are understandable.


Also tomorrow is the anniversary of the 2013 tornado that hit 2 schools

But yeah it's a touchy subject
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1553 Postby Quixotic » Sun May 19, 2019 9:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:OKC schools are closing tomorrow...for weather that will hit after school is out. Crazy stuff.


Had some discussions with some folks about this kind of stuff. Structurally speaking, most schools (modern built) may actually be safer than most homes. There are more walls, better construction. But that is a sensitive subject.


Don’t know about OKC, but here in Dallas if it’s rush hour with severe storms it’s gridlock and people are sitting ducks. They’re trying to keep that element out of it by sending folks home early or work from home.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1554 Postby TheProfessor » Sun May 19, 2019 10:16 pm

I’m getting increasingly worried, especially since I know there are going to be a lot of storm chasers out tomorrow. If the HRRR is correct(I feel like I have been saying this a lot this year and the seems the might be a bit over aggressive, but it’s also sniffed out some events that weren’t as highly advertised) then there could be a dozen of rotating updrafts and potential tornadoes in a relatively small area. This isn’t typical for Oklahoma, typically you get some supercells that fire up along a dry line, but there is enough room for storm chasers to escape(excluding 2013 El Reno). What the HRRR shows would have supercells that are more sprinkled over an area instead of forming along a line. It’s more akin to the southeast than the southern plains on the model. That morning convection will be key and I’m really hoping this will be one of the biggest busts in the last few years.


When you add a bunch of chasers and widespread supercells it’s a recipe for disaster. I’m especially worried about crowded roads, which could complicate things with experienced chaser. I already know Ohio university is sending down a professor and some students to chase(which is a class I believe and I’m totally jealous) and there’s no telling how many students from OU, A&M, KU etc will join in as well. My parents are already aware I’m going to be tracking this from my hotel room, they didn’t even try to argue lol.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1555 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun May 19, 2019 10:32 pm

Tulsa joins OKC, Moore, and Norman in the decision to close schools tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1556 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun May 19, 2019 10:36 pm

Some very strong social media discussion tonight from several Oklahoma weather experts and TV Mets about tomorrow’s severe weather potential.

Wondering if tomorrow will be a High Risk day and whether or not we will see PDS watches?
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1557 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun May 19, 2019 10:38 pm

Mike Morgan at KFOR in OKC tweeted:

“...Stay weather aware folks, Monday is the real deal.”
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1558 Postby TheProfessor » Sun May 19, 2019 10:46 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Some very strong social media discussion tonight from several Oklahoma weather experts and TV Mets about tomorrow’s severe weather potential.

Wondering if tomorrow will be a High Risk day and whether or not we will see PDS watches?


I think there’s a pretty decent chance a high risk is issued, however it may not be until the 2nd update if SPC still isn’t confident about morning convection(although the hrrr sure is making it hard to not pull the trigger in the first update.) PDS watches seem even more probable due to the strong wording of SPC. You could very well see something where SPC isn’t confident enough to upgrade early in the day, but by the time the watches come out they have enough confidence for a PDS statement.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1559 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 19, 2019 10:48 pm

Tulsa is closed, too? They won’t see stuff until bedtime tomorrow probably.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1560 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 19, 2019 10:52 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:Some very strong social media discussion tonight from several Oklahoma weather experts and TV Mets about tomorrow’s severe weather potential.

Wondering if tomorrow will be a High Risk day and whether or not we will see PDS watches?


I think there’s a pretty decent chance a high risk is issued, however it may not be until the 2nd update if SPC still isn’t confident about morning convection(although the hrrr sure is making it hard to not pull the trigger in the first update.) PDS watches seem even more probable due to the strong wording of SPC. You could very well see something where SPC isn’t confident enough to upgrade early in the day, but by the time the watches come out they have enough confidence for a PDS statement.


That is my thinking, traditionally SPC plays it a bit conservative but they do heavily weigh the parameter space and tomorrow is high end.
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