Texas Spring 2019

[Brent]

April Fools from the FV GFS dont worry DFW is still snowless

[missygirl810]

April Fools from the FV GFS dont worry DFW is still snowless



http://i67.tinypic.com/ka0byc.png

Good Lord, what is it smoking????

[Brent]

April Fools from the FV GFS dont worry DFW is still snowless



http://i67.tinypic.com/ka0byc.png

Good Lord, what is it smoking????

Its really no wonder the upgrade to regular GFS keeps getting pushed back

[Ntxw]

Maybe one last blast of out of season chill to end March and start April. That will keep a lid some on severe weather until at least mid-April. Aside from that, nothing really to add on my end that others haven't already mentioned. Days are getting longer as we move for the Summer Solstice.

Severe weather or not, do you think it gets wetter as we begin April.

I'm thinking mid-late April and May. Tropical forcing is passing west of the IDL.

In Spring, Summer, and Fall I think we do better with a significant wetter pattern when tropical forcing resides over the EPAC (130W-90W) southwest of Mexico. It feeds the moisture plume in Texas and adjacent states. Kind of dry there now but will kick up once the EPAC season comes into play here not too long from now. Also most sites at the moment are running cold for March. I think April is the transition month due to this lag chill. DFW has not even hit 80 this month, quite unusual given it happens every March basically.

[bubba hotep]

There is a non zero chance of supercells firing off the dryline late this afternoon in the DFW area. The HRRR is firing a lone supercell, if morning clouds clear out then this could be a good afternoon for pictures.

[gpsnowman]

There is a non zero chance of supercells firing off the dryline late this afternoon in the DFW area. The HRRR is firing a lone supercell, if morning clouds clear out then this could be a good afternoon for pictures.

Had a brief shower earlier, didn't amount to much. I do like the prospects of some activity later today if indeed the clouds can clear for a while. Humidity is really high today!!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

April Fools from the FV GFS dont worry DFW is still snowless



http://i67.tinypic.com/ka0byc.png

Funny for sure but hasn’t this or similar been shown more than once?

[Ntxw]

April Fools from the FV GFS dont worry DFW is still snowless



http://i67.tinypic.com/ka0byc.png

Funny for sure but hasn’t this or similar been shown more than once?

It will likely end up in Co/KS where there is a blizzard late week. Cold front will come through and send temps below normal again. May see a freeze in NW third to half of Texas some point next weekend and 30s for lows for the northern half. Chilly for the end of March. Storms is fairly deep and will drive a decent front with it.

It's been quite a chilly March for the Central US.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS...

[Cpv17]

I doubt it’s going to rain much as long as these strong fronts keep coming in keeping our temps below normal. We need some juice in the atmosphere and these fronts and below normal temps are taking that away. That’s my hunch on why it’s been dry lately.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Areas affected...Oklahoma into north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231933Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across
portions of Oklahoma and north Texas. These thunderstorms would be
capable of gusty winds and large hail, although a brief tornado or
two cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Skies have mostly cleared across Oklahoma in the wake
of earlier convection. Additionally, south-southeasterly winds have
contributed to modest low-level moisture return as indicated by
surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50Fs. The combination of
increasing insolation, steep midlevel-lapse rates, and modest
surface moisture has resulted in between 500-1000 J/kg of
mixed-layer CAPE.

Recent trends in the cumulus field indicates the presence of a
stable layer across the region. RAP forecast soundings, and HRRR
model reflectivity trends, indicate the combination of surface
temperatures approaching 70F and large-scale lift will be enough to
erode this stable layer during the afternoon. The result should be
an increasing threat of thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail and gusty winds during the late afternoon into the evening.
Wind fields veer with height and would generally be supportive of
updraft rotation. However, generally poor low-level moisture and
weak low-level wind fields should preclude a greater tornado threat.


At this time, confidence in thunderstorm coverage remains fairly low
and the need for a watch is uncertain. However, trends will continue
to be monitored.

..Marsh/Hart.. 03/23/2019

[CaptinCrunch]

So what happened to all that rain that was forecasted for last night and today? Bust weather models seem to be the trend these days. I mowed the front yesterday evening and fertilized since heavy rain was forecasted.....

[Ntxw]

So what happened to all that rain that was forecasted for last night and today? Bust weather models seem to be the trend these days. I mowed the front yesterday evening and fertilized since heavy rain was forecasted.....

You're not going to get deluges with dewpoints in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. That's not enough pwats for warm rains. That's been the issue this month is the anomalous persistent cool air. You need DPs in the upper 60s for a few days at least for efficient rainfall. So even when you see 60s and 70s (still coolish) the air masses are from the north with the lower dew-points vs deep tropical air masses.

[gpsnowman]

Radar starting to come to life. Some light returns over DFW and and a little cell west of here.

[Cerlin]

Very bummed about this lack of rain and thunderstorms. I’ve had a few brief nice downpours today but nothing sustainable and nothing that extraordinary. Hopefully as we progress into the night the radar looks a little better but, I’m not terribly optimistic.

[Brent]

We're gonna need more sustained warmth if we want heavy rain I think, its a double edged sword with all these below normal temps like ntwx was saying, may be nicer overall but also drier...

looking at the 10 day forecast it still appears we're gonna have legit fronts so hard to get too excited about widespread rains

[CaptinCrunch]

Only had a few brief light showers, just enough to get the street wet. My rant isn't with the lack of humidity or rain, but rather the poor model performance and subsequent forecasts.

Now I'm hoping for no rain today so I can mow the backyard, which means it will probably poor.

[bubba hotep]

Chance of some svr wx this afternoon with the threat mainly being high wind & hail. Coverage looks limited so probably not a lot of widespread rain with this system. Then the 00z Euro is bone dry for most of Texas over the next 10 days after tonight...

[bubba hotep]

Speaking of the 00z Euro, here the last 9 runs at DFW:

0.6", 0.3, 0.9, 0.9, 0.8, 0.5, 1.1, 0.9, and.... ta da! 0.0"

ETA: This is for the 24 hr period ending tomorrow morning.

[Haris]

All I am asking for is a simple thunderstorm for 15 min so I can get some cool lightning shots. Preference night.

San Antonio in moderate drought now too.