STORM2K

Spring is right around the corner, and the National Weather Service in Fort Worth has free Skywarn spotter training classes being conducted all across North Texas.

The FWD schedule can be found here: https://www.weather.gov/fwd/skywarnsch?sptrsch

It’s March 1st. Winter is over, Spring is here. Where is everybody?

Goodbye to a crappy February.

 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/1101302589218529281

Ah, March, the name just sounds warmer than February. Trees are budding/leafing out, my azaleas are blooming. Goodbye to winter.

Started March out with a low of 22. That's my kind of spring.

wxman57 wrote:Ah, March, the name just sounds warmer than February. Trees are budding/leafing out, my azaleas are blooming. Goodbye to winter.

Keeping the Winter alive here, I missed my forecast high of 39 yesterday, it was 37... Today the high get's to maybe 45-48, same with tomorrow, however I'm going with a earlier frontal passage late afternoon. If this happens we should be down to low 30's by 8pm and drop below freezing shortly after. Sunday's high will be midnight, and stay below freezing thru Monday morning.

For precip I think there is a real chance of seeing some freezing drizzle/lite snow across DFW before the dry air takes over early Sunday morning. One last shot of winter precip will be Monday evening into Tuesday morning, after that, well....

wxman57 wrote:Ah, March, the name just sounds warmer than February. Trees are budding/leafing out, my azaleas are blooming. Goodbye to winter.

Should you not be retooling the Death Star for its annual Summer Run, sir?

Out of the winter that wasn't. Models in the medium to long range were bad. I don't care what the skill scores might say (have not looked at them) Some are talking about a double nino...if so...I think the same might continue next winter. On to hopefully a wet spring, and early summer. Limited severe for me please.

Not sure about wet, SOI went positive today. But a warm late half of March is possible with MJO progression into the IO and eventually Maritime Continent. About 60 days of cool-ish weather left before heat cranks up. Obviously earlier in the southern tier.

What are the prospects for severe weather this spring? It seems like we've had more of the heavy rain/flooding events and less of the dry line type severe weather in recent springs.

I'm not really seeing anything that suggests we flip the overall pattern anytime soon. Precipitation will increase per climo as we head into MAM with temps pretty close to normal to slightly below. I wouldn't totally rule out one or two more marginal winter wx threats for the northern half of Texas since there is nothing that points towards a quick flip to warm.

On a personal note, I saw one of the biggest early season snows in DC back in Nov and then saw snow this morning on March 1. Too bad I only saw a few rounds of winter mix that couldn't muster more than a trace back home in DJF lol

If you didn't read the morning AFD from FWD then you should.


A continued gradual modification of our arctic airmass will occur
through Saturday, but it's looking increasingly unlikely that
temperatures across North Texas will manage to break above 50
degrees during the day. North-northeasterly surface winds will
veer out of the east through the morning. At the same time, the
indirect, transverse ageostrophic circulation associated with the
exit region of an incoming anticyclonically arcing jet streak
will foster increasing southwesterly 850-700 mb flow. This will
induce renewed warm advection/isentropic upglide atop the
lingering shallow/cool frontal inversion, resulting in rather
widespread drizzle, showers, and low cloud cover. Given the
prospects for cloudy and damp conditions, I've knocked highs
across much of North Texas into the 40s, but will show a notable
gradient into Central Texas where a quasistationary boundary/warm
front may try to nose in through the late afternoon and early
evening. Obviously a pretty big bust potential for highs, but
confidence is relatively high that we won't be able to make major
modifications to this airmass.

And then this:

We're also watching the Red River area for Monday morning, as
guidance suggests a plume of 700-600 mb moisture advecting
overhead with steepening lapse rates. Several sheared vort lobes
will be traversing the same region within the base of broad
cyclonic flow aloft. Nothing to worry about for the time being,
but this set up could result in some snow potential. For now, just
something to keep an eye on.

Go read the whole thing!

Chilly start to the Spring thread!

What are everyone's predictions for the 2019 severe weather season? It doesn't seem to have been extremely active the past few years, but I feel like this year should be good

newtotex wrote:Chilly start to the Spring thread!

What are everyone's predictions for the 2019 severe weather season? It doesn't seem to have been extremely active the past few years, but I feel like this year should be good

My initial hot take is slow start and probably blow normal over all.

Seems like this year is the neverending non-winter. Or almost as seasons are shifting a bit. We are seeing a lot more warm Novembers and cold Marches. I'm looking forward to a long summer, but when will we get some real warrmth? The whole month of March looks chilly. (Anything under 70 is chilly).

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Seems like this year is the neverending non-winter. Or almost as seasons are shifting a bit. We are seeing a lot more warm Novembers and cold Marches. I'm looking forward to a long summer, but when will we get some real warrmth? The whole month of March looks chilly. (Anything under 70 is chilly).

A long summer? A long summer in Chicago or ND is awesome but a Texas long summer??? No way lol

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Seems like this year is the neverending non-winter. Or almost as seasons are shifting a bit. We are seeing a lot more warm Novembers and cold Marches. I'm looking forward to a long summer, but when will we get some real warrmth? The whole month of March looks chilly. (Anything under 70 is chilly).

I’m sorry but this November was anything but warm. November felt like a nicer winter than most of winter did.

I remember when the models had 60s and 70s today

Why cant we get this bust when there's widespread precip

The ICON has highs in the 20s Monday.

Haris wrote:The ICON has highs in the 20s Monday.

What a waste of cold air