Texas Spring 2019

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3724
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1841 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu May 30, 2019 8:51 am

We may get some monsoonal moisture next week. The ground surface down to about an inch in my yard has dried up with these relentless winds/breezes, warm temps, and dry weather the past couple weeks here. We could use another inch or two of moisture.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 300853
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
353 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weakening frontal zone over Central TX is generating scattered
storms along outflows with isolated severe storms possible. CAPE
values of 2-3 kJ/kg and shear values below 40 knots where the leading
edge of activity exist leads only to a marginal threat for severe
for this morning. Later this afternoon, convergent boundaries and
increased CAPEs from daytime heating will lead to a slightly higher
potential for severe activity, mainly west of a Fredericksburg to
Carrizo Springs line through this evening. Temperatures this
afternoon should take a 2 or 3 degree step back from those of
Wednesday thanks mostly to a chaotic sky containing clouds at various
elevations. About half of the CAM models generate a small nighttime
storm complex and track it east toward the I-35 corridor overnight,
but timing and locations are still to random to warrant much more
than a 30 percent chance of rain.
Higher PoPs will remain to the west
and southeast where surface convergence remains present along the
washing out frontal boundary. The elevated moist layer begins to lift
north Friday, keeping most of the deeper daytime convection north of
Hwy 90 for Friday, while temperatures still benefit from low level
instability and some spotty showers across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
While models still suggest a fair amount of mid level moisture over
South-central TX for Saturday, the axis of highest moisture and
instability will have shifted well to the west to keep storm
initiation tied to the higher terrain over Mexico and West TX. At the
same time mid-level ridging amplifies over Central TX to reduce
instability aloft. Pwat values remain 1.5 to 2.0, so the chance of an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out, but coverage should be below 10
percent.

Sunday through Tuesday should be a fairly dormant pattern with
gradually decreasing Pwat values and mid to upper level ridging
continuing to build. The amplitude of the mid level ridging gets
sharp along a N-S axis on Tuesday which could signal the next
opportunity for the area to see a stormy pattern to follow. On the
west side of this trimming mid-level axis, tropical moisture is
depicted to collect over Mexico from both the Pacific an the Wrn
Gulf and push north into W TX. A broad monsoon-like pattern develops
over NM/W TX Wednesday, and this leaves the models breaking down
mid-level height fields into a broad upper troughing feature over the
NM/Mexico border by most accounts on late Wednesday.
The ECM/CMC
solutions go a bit too aggressive with the ridge breakdown and would
expect to see the more moderate GFS solution. Would expect to see 2
to 3 days of at least 30 percent daytime PoPs and a curbing of max
temps by a couple degrees between Wednesday and next Saturday, from
this loose pattern. Will keep the Wed-Thu forecasts conservative with
mainly 20s and 30s on PoPs and wait for models to converge on more
mesoscale features.
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 34635
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1842 Postby Brent » Thu May 30, 2019 1:06 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:56 this morning, felt really nice. Can we just skip summer?


That would be nice.
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1238
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1843 Postby Haris » Thu May 30, 2019 1:19 pm

3/4" of rain last night. 9" month to date.
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 34635
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1844 Postby Brent » Thu May 30, 2019 3:12 pm

EF1 confirmed in North Fort Worth, 3 EF0's confirmed in Saginaw Krum and Rockwall

Canton TBD

btw pattern looks to turn unsettled again by the weekend into next week, still no sign of real heat waves
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2949
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Roaming Texan

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1845 Postby TheProfessor » Thu May 30, 2019 4:28 pm

FWIW Brandon Clement suggested that the Canton tornado was at least an EF3, I haven't seen any of the damage photos myself to know.
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1755
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Farmers Branch, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1846 Postby gpsnowman » Thu May 30, 2019 5:07 pm

Brent wrote:EF1 confirmed in North Fort Worth, 3 EF0's confirmed in Saginaw Krum and Rockwall

Canton TBD

btw pattern looks to turn unsettled again by the weekend into next week, still no sign of real heat waves

Starting Saturday, low chances of storms are likely for close to a week according NBC 5's report. I think we are entering the part of the year where popcorn showers will hit a lucky few in the afternoons. With heavy doses of humidity I'm sure. Yuck.
1 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 34635
Age: 31
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: DFW
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1847 Postby Brent » Thu May 30, 2019 5:22 pm

TheProfessor wrote:FWIW Brandon Clement suggested that the Canton tornado was at least an EF3, I haven't seen any of the damage photos myself to know.


the prelim rating is only EF1 apparently NBC 5 just reported, though I honestly don't know either. I did get the impression as it was happening though that it was weaker in Canton vs when we saw it to the SW

High end EF2 near Mabank and Cedar Creek Lake

another EF2 SW of Canton and a separate EF1 NE of Canton

8 tornadoes


NWS Fort Worth
@NWSFortWorth
5:15 pm update on Wednesday's tornadoes.
3 EF-0 in Saginaw, Krum, and Rockwall
3 EF-1 in N. Ft. Worth, Canton, and NE of Canton
2 EF-2 in Kemp/Mabank and Whitton
Still investigating damage in Fannin county and possibly one more tornado in rural Van Zandt county. #txwx #dfwwx
5:14 PM · May 30, 2019 · TweetDeck
17
0 likes   
#neversummer

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17425
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1848 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 30, 2019 7:59 pm

TheProfessor wrote:FWIW Brandon Clement suggested that the Canton tornado was at least an EF3, I haven't seen any of the damage photos myself to know.


I haven't (yet) seen any damage suggesting EF3. At its best "look" on videos it was mostly passing not very dense land.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3724
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1849 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu May 30, 2019 8:29 pm

Haris wrote:3/4" of rain last night. 9" month to date.


We got just a 1/4" here.
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1238
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1850 Postby Haris » Thu May 30, 2019 9:26 pm

Image

Mammatus
6 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1851 Postby aggiecutter » Thu May 30, 2019 10:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:FWIW Brandon Clement suggested that the Canton tornado was at least an EF3, I haven't seen any of the damage photos myself to know.


I haven't (yet) seen any damage suggesting EF3. At its best "look" on videos it was mostly passing not very dense land.


The 1st house in the video below looks to have sustained close to EF3 damage. It is a well built brick home that sustained major damage. The rest of the structures in the video that were destroyed were of poor quality, so it is hard to judge the strength of the tornado by their destruction. Having said that, I would rate the strength of the tornado an EF3 based on the damage to the well built brick house.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-BYUgNmacA
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17425
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1852 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 31, 2019 8:02 am

A complex of rain/storms is crossing North Texas this morning. Most SW of DFW is where the heaviest rain is but may clip the metro on the northern end.

This will bring May to a close. For the US as a whole it's been deadly and damaging.

Today is the last day to post in the Texas Spring Thread. All posts come midnight and after not relating to re-analysis will be moved to the Texas Summer Thread. This is the time of year we all must grind through...
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3724
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1853 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri May 31, 2019 10:50 am



I saw those last night at dusk also! Too dark for a pic, but your mammatus looked better than mine did anyway. :wink:
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5218
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1854 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 31, 2019 11:42 pm

Ended May with 6.68 inches of rain at the Austin College Weather Station here in Grayson County.

And Lake Texoma is nearly 12 feet above normal.

Quite a month of stormy, rainy weather.

Onto the Texas Summer thread, another step toward Winter!!!!!!! :D
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5218
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1855 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 31, 2019 11:50 pm

Worst part of this stormy May was the killer EF-3 tornado in Bryan County, Oklahoma about 20 miles from where I live. That May 3rd storm went over Denison and dropped the tornado across the Red River, eventually killing two. :(
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5218
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1856 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 31, 2019 11:53 pm

So long Texas Spring 2019.

Hello Texas Summer 2019.

:D
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8208
Age: 52
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Mansfield, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1857 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:02 pm

Spring 2019 Recap...

March, April and May all finished below the normal monthly mean temperature, with an average monthly mean of -1.2 degrees

March was below average precip wise, but April and May made up for March's short fall for a Spring average monthly mean of +1.81"

So Spring was cooler and wetter than on average for the whole, let's hope Summer can be just as "Average" :ggreen: :sun:
4 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests