Texas Summer 2019

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1101 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:57 pm

SoupBone wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Screw your stupid ridge.


That was the most sorry excuse for a hurricane. Hurricane Don and Ridge of Death on a collision course. Upon impact, Don goes POOOOOF, into thin air, being sucked into the ridge abyss.

So depressing. Bad memories.

Thanks for bringing that up dhweather!lol

I'm so OVER this Summer!


Haha! I;m cracking up over here. Did Dan the Death Ridge really kill Don the Hurricane?


Well, it was actually a tropical storm. I forgot about that. It was doomed before it formed.lol But here's the writeup.

Tropical Storm Don was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States during the 2011 season. The fourth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Don formed from an area of low pressure along a tropical wave, Don developed into a tropical depression on July 27, and on that same day, was upgraded to tropical storm intensity, based on data from a reconnaissance aircraft noted the presence of tropical-storm-force winds. It tracked across the Gulf of Mexico and reached a peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h) before moving ashore in Texas on July 30 as a tropical depression, dissipating shortly afterwards. Initially, Don was expected to provide relief to the state, which was suffering from a major drought. However, the system dissipated rapidly just before making landfall, providing very little in the way of help to the state; rainfall totals were less than 1 in (25 mm).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropica ... _Don_(2011)
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1102 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:12 pm

I'll say one good thing about the 2011 Don...surf 8-) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tropical-storm-teases-parched-texas-but-fizzles/ The surf was big so a long board was needed for the outside bars. Inside was a washing machine. If the swell period gets to long the inside is just foam.

The ICON and a few other models show a wave approaching the TX coast? Is this for real and we may get some relief from the Death Ridge? It is keeping the surf FLAT!
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1103 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:45 am

Oh, the Ridge of Death is real alright. This morning's Euro, UKMet, and ICON all show it shunting into Mexico an upper level low moving west in the Gulf. These TUTT lows can often bring beneficial rains in the summertime. This is why we can't have nice things. :x
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1104 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:33 am

Oh, I see what Porta is referring to.
We can only hope the Ridge of Death doesn't have as much of an influence, since climatology is slowly in our favor of a weakening heat ridge with each passing week, as the days get shorter and nights get longer.

At least that is the theory I'm hoping becomes fact. :roll:


000
FXUS64 KEWX 300810
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.SHORT TERM
Hot and dry weather should continue through the short-term for about
80 percent of the area. There are slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms for areas mainly east of a Mountain Home to Karnes City
line today and east of a Liberty Hill to Luling to Campbellton line
Saturday. The chances Saturday over Central TX are contingent on
activity surviving a weakening MCS that will move from KS into TX
over the next 24 hours. Trends are backing away from this energy to
make it this far south and even the ridiculously wet-biased GFS
keeps a solid anticyclonic 700 mb circulation over the Southern
Plains.
A small amount of mid level moisture is expected to bring a
slight boost to PWAT values, but these values are also trending lower
from earlier runs.
This points toward more hot and dry weather, and
we`ll continue to shade toward persistence values with generally a
less than 50 percent weight toward the blended guidances.

&&

.LONG TERM
The extended offers more of the same with the GFS quick to become
chaotic with small scale features on the periphery of the upper
ridge. The ECM has been the clear choice over the past few days, and
this morning`s forecast will lean heavily on the ECM guidance for the
later periods. There is some rain chances brought in mainly Wednesday
and Thursday for the extended. The feature to bring this potential
rain looks to be a weak Tutt Low. All deterministic runs detail this
feature,
but the ECM keeps the feature farthest south. Thus, these
rain chances may trend more bearish if the current high pressure
trends continue.
:grr:
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1105 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:26 am

It’s looking more and more likely that this tropical wave will only bring rains to northern Mexico and deep STX. At least that’s what I’m seeing.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1106 Postby Haris » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:30 am

I hope those who were complaining about all the rain in spring are happy now ... :roll:

I hate summer.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1107 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:35 am

Haris wrote:I hope those who were complaining about all the rain in spring are happy now ... :roll:

I hate summer.


We’re just stuck in a terrible weather pattern right now and it doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon. I honestly thought a couple weeks ago that things would get cranking again for us towards the very last part of this month and into September, but nope. So much for that thought.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1108 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:44 am

Early Morning Discussion from the NWS Brownsville...Come on Rain!

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday): The synoptic pattern
across Deep South Texas will still be dominated by a 500mb high
centered over the Four Corners Region late this weekend with dry,
northeasterly flow across our region through Sunday. Moisture will
quickly surge from the east and overspread the CWA by Tuesday as a
mid-level low pressure system and associated weak surface low move
onshore of the lower Texas coast. The system should be fairly weak
and open system, which would bring much-needed rainfall to
drought-stricken areas.
The main differences with the 00Z
guidance tonight has been an increase in potential rain chances
and QPF. So, have gradually shifted PoP up to 40 to 60%, mainly
Tuesday into Wednesday. The best chances appear to be along the
coastal counties with seabreeze enhancement, as well as offshore
across the Gulf waters. Some model guidance indicated precipitable
waters values of up to 2.50", which would be near or above record
levels, so the potential for heavy rain increases.
Even with
drought conditions, torrential rainfall rates could still pose a
threat of flash flooding. Deep moisture profiles will continue
through the end of the week as the low pressure area progresses
westward, so rain chances will linger through the period.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1109 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:12 pm

Heck of a storm came through here a little while ago, trees down around town and temp dropped to 66 if only for a little while.
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1110 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:30 pm

On a brighter note today is the last official day of meteorological summer....YAY, and we will be posting in the Texas Fall thread starting tomorrow.

Let's hope for a change after today and get ready for all the Fall festivities. :ggreen:
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1111 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:36 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:On a brighter note today is the last official day of meteorological summer....YAY, and we will be posting in the Texas Fall thread starting tomorrow.

Let hope for a change after today and get ready all the Fall festivities. :ggreen:


Indeed! All discussions will be moved tomorrow night at 12:00AM.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1112 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:56 pm

Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1113 Postby WeatherNewbie » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/EOa66sn.gif


we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1114 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:00 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/EOa66sn.gif


we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?


Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1115 Postby WeatherNewbie » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/EOa66sn.gif


we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?


Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.


bring it on! :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1116 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:06 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?


Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.


bring it on! :D


These are not severe warned but is definitely a pleasant surprise!
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1117 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:08 pm

Glad to see yall get some rain. It's been dry and sunny here this week, which has been a welcomed change.
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1118 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.


bring it on! :D


These are not severe warned but is definitely a pleasant surprise!


Could you nudge that "pleasant surprise" down further this way, please???
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1119 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:21 pm

:wall:

Image
Image
Image
Image

:sprinkler:
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Re: Texas Summer 2019

#1120 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:39 pm

The length of sustained high wind with this complex has been pretty crazy!
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