Texas Summer 2019

[gpsnowman]

another non-severe 3am line for the metro

Southern Oklahoma got rocked, winds near 80 mph in spots east of Pauls Valley

Who needs an alarm at 3:30 when nature can do it for you? Nice quick boomer storm to start the day. Ok off to work.

[Brent]

surprisingly noisy here, really didn't look that impressive on radar

pretty good chance at another round this evening it appears. The humidity is gonna be horrendous the next few days for sure

[rwfromkansas]

The severe outlook has really ramped up and pushed west to have DFW in the center.

[bubba hotep]

Enhanced for North and NE Texas, all of DFW included in both wind and hail hatch. SPC mentions possibility of an upgrade to Mod later today.

[CaptinCrunch]

For storms that were expected to fall apart prior to getting to the DFW area, they sure held on long enough to do so, I woke to thunder and a moderate rain as well. Storms look to fire just to the west of FTW and push east this afternoon with a enhanced severe level.

[bubba hotep]

12z HiRes models are generating some ludicrous CAPE values across DFW this afternoon, in some cases 6,000+ J/kg!

[newtotex]

12z HiRes models are generating some ludicrous CAPE values across DFW this afternoon, in some cases 6,000+ J/kg!

That's what is crazy about storms this time of year, if they can get going then they have a lot of instability to work with

Since living here I've noticed that storms in the June/July time-frame that really get going have really strong downburst winds, looks like this could be similar along with huge hail

[Ntxw]

IF those cape values verified I'd be concerned for isolated cases of very large hail. High cape in summer is not unusual, there is just normally very little lift this time of year. However this year has been anything but normal.

[bubba hotep]

My guess is we see an upgrade to Mod from I35 eastward towards the ArkLaTex.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I looked at a sounding for Ntx today and got a 7100 CAPE reading. Although there is dry air in the mid lats, the equivalent pot. temp chart is backward sloping till about 400MB. Correct me if im wrong but that means the air will be lifting. Could be some monster rain makers this afternoon

[Brent]

no upgrade as of the 1630z Day 1

there is a small 10% tornado from Collin and Rockwall NE though now

[EnnisTx]

I've got this eerie feeling about late afternoon/evening..

[Ntxw]

I've got this eerie feeling about late afternoon/evening..

Being alert is good but it doesn't mean you need to worry. Not everyone will see severe weather. Despite conditions it is June so very heavy rain for some is most likely outcome with isolated large hail and some high winds, seeing high dewpoints. Some may not see anything at all if they grow further north and east

[bubba hotep]

Based on visible satellite, it looks like the remnant outflow boundary is along I30 and there is still capping in place north of there. Special balloon launch from FWD this afternoon should be interesting.

[EnnisTx]

I've got this eerie feeling about late afternoon/evening..

Being alert is good but it doesn't mean you need to worry. Not everyone will see severe weather. Despite conditions it is June so very heavy rain for some is most likely outcome with isolated large hail and some high winds, seeing high dewpoints. Some may not see anything at all if they grow further north and east

Yep. It will most likely not affect everyone. Just have the feeling someone around here is going to take a punch to the face.

[rwfromkansas]

Definite building around Denton where I am leaving a yearbook camp with students. May be too far East to really cause issues until Dallas/Collin.

[Cpv17]

Dew points are ridiculous today. Pushing 80 degrees here in southeast TX. Heat indices near 110.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like it could be an active period this evening/tonight for you all north Texas.



Mesoscale Discussion 1136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...Northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...southwest
Arkansas...and far northwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 192014Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development is expected by late afternoon/early
evening. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Low-level southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots
continues to advect high theta-e air northward across central and
northern Texas in the wake of last night's MCS. A cumulus field has
expanded and advected northward on the northern extent of this
moisture rich air mass. The 19Z FWD RAOB suggests the air mass has
mostly recovered from earlier convective overturning with deep
boundary layer moisture and very steep mid-level lapse rates (~8.5-9
C/km) with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures in the low 90s.
This combination of a high theta-e air mass beneath very steep
mid-level lapse rates has led to an extremely unstable air mass with
MLCAPE around 4000 to 4500 J/kg. CINH has been mostly eroded now
across this area with less than 50 J/kg on the 19Z FWD sounding.

Surface streamline analysis shows the strongest low-level confluence
just north of Abilene in the vicinity of an analyzed 1004hPa surface
low as of 19Z. Initial convective development may occur in this area
as early as 21Z where both buoyancy and mesoscale forcing will be
most supportive. Additional storms may form eastward along the
instability gradient as surface temperatures approach the convective
temperature. In fact, recent 1-min GOES16 imagery shows some deeper
towering cumulus development along what appears to be the remnant
outflow boundary from the overnight MCS which is now lifting north.
Any storms which develop should quickly take on supercell structures
given the extreme instability and effective shear around 50 to 60
knots (57 kts FWD 19Z RAOB).

Initial storms will pose the greatest threat for very large hail and
a few tornadoes while storm mode remains discrete. Weak low-to-mid
tropospheric flow will be a limiting factor to a greater tornado
threat with the strengthening and elongating low-level hodograph not
materializing until after 00Z once storm mode becomes less discrete.
However, there is enough low-level cyclonic curvature in the lowest
1 to 2 km to support the potential for a few tornadoes.

The environmental variables are very supportive for very large hail,
including the potential for giant hail given the extreme
instability, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and >50 kts effective
shear. The only negative factor to a more widespread threat for
giant hail will be the limited duration of a more discrete storm
mode.

Widespread storm coverage is expected between 00Z and 03Z due to the
arrival of the mid-level shortwave trough and a strengthening
low-level jet. A very large hail threat will remain for a few hours
before the primary threat becomes damaging wind as storms congeal.
There is significant wind gust potential given the extreme
instability and the the steep mid-level lapse rates with the
potential for wind-driven large hail, especially in the 01-04Z
timeframe.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/19/2019

[bubba hotep]

A couple of failed convective attempts but looks like a cell is getting established near Sanger. CASA network will come in handy today.

[EnnisTx]

Tornado Watch coming soon.