STORM2K

SoupBone wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
Screw your stupid ridge.

That was the most sorry excuse for a hurricane. Hurricane Don and Ridge of Death on a collision course. Upon impact, Don goes POOOOOF, into thin air, being sucked into the ridge abyss.

So depressing. Bad memories.

Thanks for bringing that up dhweather!lol

I'm so OVER this Summer!

Haha! I;m cracking up over here. Did Dan the Death Ridge really kill Don the Hurricane?

Well, it was actually a tropical storm. I forgot about that. It was doomed before it formed.lol But here's the writeup.

Tropical Storm Don was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States during the 2011 season. The fourth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Don formed from an area of low pressure along a tropical wave, Don developed into a tropical depression on July 27, and on that same day, was upgraded to tropical storm intensity, based on data from a reconnaissance aircraft noted the presence of tropical-storm-force winds. It tracked across the Gulf of Mexico and reached a peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h) before moving ashore in Texas on July 30 as a tropical depression, dissipating shortly afterwards. Initially, Don was expected to provide relief to the state, which was suffering from a major drought. However, the system dissipated rapidly just before making landfall, providing very little in the way of help to the state; rainfall totals were less than 1 in (25 mm).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropica ... _Don_(2011)

I'll say one good thing about the 2011 Don...surf https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tropical-storm-teases-parched-texas-but-fizzles/ The surf was big so a long board was needed for the outside bars. Inside was a washing machine. If the swell period gets to long the inside is just foam.

The ICON and a few other models show a wave approaching the TX coast? Is this for real and we may get some relief from the Death Ridge? It is keeping the surf FLAT!

Oh, the Ridge of Death is real alright. This morning's Euro, UKMet, and ICON all show it shunting into Mexico an upper level low moving west in the Gulf. These TUTT lows can often bring beneficial rains in the summertime. This is why we can't have nice things.

Oh, I see what Porta is referring to.
We can only hope the Ridge of Death doesn't have as much of an influence, since climatology is slowly in our favor of a weakening heat ridge with each passing week, as the days get shorter and nights get longer.

At least that is the theory I'm hoping becomes fact.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 300810
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.SHORT TERM
Hot and dry weather should continue through the short-term for about
80 percent of the area. There are slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms for areas mainly east of a Mountain Home to Karnes City
line today and east of a Liberty Hill to Luling to Campbellton line
Saturday. The chances Saturday over Central TX are contingent on
activity surviving a weakening MCS that will move from KS into TX
over the next 24 hours. Trends are backing away from this energy to
make it this far south and even the ridiculously wet-biased GFS
keeps a solid anticyclonic 700 mb circulation over the Southern
Plains. A small amount of mid level moisture is expected to bring a
slight boost to PWAT values, but these values are also trending lower
from earlier runs. This points toward more hot and dry weather, and
we`ll continue to shade toward persistence values with generally a
less than 50 percent weight toward the blended guidances.

&&

.LONG TERM
The extended offers more of the same with the GFS quick to become
chaotic with small scale features on the periphery of the upper
ridge. The ECM has been the clear choice over the past few days, and
this morning`s forecast will lean heavily on the ECM guidance for the
later periods. There is some rain chances brought in mainly Wednesday
and Thursday for the extended. The feature to bring this potential
rain looks to be a weak Tutt Low. All deterministic runs detail this
feature, but the ECM keeps the feature farthest south. Thus, these
rain chances may trend more bearish if the current high pressure
trends continue.

It’s looking more and more likely that this tropical wave will only bring rains to northern Mexico and deep STX. At least that’s what I’m seeing.

I hope those who were complaining about all the rain in spring are happy now ...

I hate summer.

Haris wrote:I hope those who were complaining about all the rain in spring are happy now ...

I hate summer.

We’re just stuck in a terrible weather pattern right now and it doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon. I honestly thought a couple weeks ago that things would get cranking again for us towards the very last part of this month and into September, but nope. So much for that thought.

Early Morning Discussion from the NWS Brownsville...Come on Rain!

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday): The synoptic pattern
across Deep South Texas will still be dominated by a 500mb high
centered over the Four Corners Region late this weekend with dry,
northeasterly flow across our region through Sunday. Moisture will
quickly surge from the east and overspread the CWA by Tuesday as a
mid-level low pressure system and associated weak surface low move
onshore of the lower Texas coast. The system should be fairly weak
and open system, which would bring much-needed rainfall to
drought-stricken areas. The main differences with the 00Z
guidance tonight has been an increase in potential rain chances
and QPF. So, have gradually shifted PoP up to 40 to 60%, mainly
Tuesday into Wednesday. The best chances appear to be along the
coastal counties with seabreeze enhancement, as well as offshore
across the Gulf waters. Some model guidance indicated precipitable
waters values of up to 2.50", which would be near or above record
levels, so the potential for heavy rain increases. Even with
drought conditions, torrential rainfall rates could still pose a
threat of flash flooding. Deep moisture profiles will continue
through the end of the week as the low pressure area progresses
westward, so rain chances will linger through the period.

Heck of a storm came through here a little while ago, trees down around town and temp dropped to 66 if only for a little while.

On a brighter note today is the last official day of meteorological summer....YAY, and we will be posting in the Texas Fall thread starting tomorrow.

Let's hope for a change after today and get ready for all the Fall festivities.

CaptinCrunch wrote:On a brighter note today is the last official day of meteorological summer....YAY, and we will be posting in the Texas Fall thread starting tomorrow.

Let hope for a change after today and get ready all the Fall festivities.

Indeed! All discussions will be moved tomorrow night at 12:00AM.

Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

Ntxw wrote:Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/EOa66sn.gif

we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?

WeatherNewbie wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/EOa66sn.gif

we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?

Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.

Ntxw wrote:

WeatherNewbie wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Was not expecting this but some strong winds with outflow from a complex moving into the metroplex.

https://i.imgur.com/EOa66sn.gif

we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?

Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.

bring it on!

WeatherNewbie wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

WeatherNewbie wrote:
we looking at any hail, or just winds and rain?

Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.

bring it on!

These are not severe warned but is definitely a pleasant surprise!

Glad to see yall get some rain. It's been dry and sunny here this week, which has been a welcomed change.

Ntxw wrote:

WeatherNewbie wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
Looks like mostly strong wind and heavy rain.

bring it on!

These are not severe warned but is definitely a pleasant surprise!

Could you nudge that "pleasant surprise" down further this way, please???

The length of sustained high wind with this complex has been pretty crazy!