Texas Fall 2019

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1661 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:30 pm

Temps for Thanksgiving have again trended slightly lower for DFW and points north to high's in the upper 40s, this will most likely also be the low for thursday as well since this system is expected to lift to the NE and winds will turn from the WSW by midnight into early Friday morning.

NWS outlook for Friday evening

The main show appears now to be Friday night through at least
midday or early afternoon Saturday as models have slowed down the
arrival of the deep latitudinal and broad Western CONUS trough
eastward across the Central Rockies and over the Plains. This has
delayed the arrival of the initial surface trough to the late
nighttime hours which will help limit the threat for strong to
severe storms at least somewhat. With this delay, I do
wholeheartedly agree with the severe weather risk for this time
frame being limited to Marginal. The environment ahead of the
surface trough will be only marginally unstable despite the
strong wind shear in place. There will still be a risk of a few
strong to possibly marginally severe storms overnight Friday night
into Saturday morning as this feature moves through the area and
exits to the east around midday Saturday.


Wind and hail will be the primary threat over night, but can't rule out a brief tornado or two from the stronger cells.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1662 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:05 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Temps for Thanksgiving have again trended slightly lower for DFW and points north to high's in the upper 40s, this will most likely also be the low for thursday as well since this system is expected to lift to the NE and winds will turn from the WSW by midnight into early Friday morning.

NWS outlook for Friday evening

The main show appears now to be Friday night through at least
midday or early afternoon Saturday as models have slowed down the
arrival of the deep latitudinal and broad Western CONUS trough
eastward across the Central Rockies and over the Plains. This has
delayed the arrival of the initial surface trough to the late
nighttime hours which will help limit the threat for strong to
severe storms at least somewhat. With this delay, I do
wholeheartedly agree with the severe weather risk for this time
frame being limited to Marginal. The environment ahead of the
surface trough will be only marginally unstable despite the
strong wind shear in place. There will still be a risk of a few
strong to possibly marginally severe storms overnight Friday night
into Saturday morning as this feature moves through the area and
exits to the east around midday Saturday.


Wind and hail will be the primary threat over night, but can't rule out a brief tornado or two from the stronger cells.


looks like time of day will help limit the threat somewhat

but then again the Dallas tornado was at 9pm

Should be noted though the forecast isn't nearly as warm as that day was
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1663 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Wed Nov 27, 2019 6:37 pm

This pattern sucks. We need Arctic air. I feel like this will be our new norm, due to global warming and warmer than average ocean temps. *sad face*
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1664 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:54 am

these models are so boring, what happened

even the rain event between now and Saturday is rather lame
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1665 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:08 am

Time to start prepping.....

It has been pouring since 430am, some thunder and lightning with it. We'll see how high the temp gets today, still thinking upper 40s from the metro area north, lower to mid 50s further south.

Enjoy soggy Thanksgiving 2019 :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1666 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:52 am

Happy Thanksgiving from beautiful Caddo Lake in east Texas.!! Low 50's on tap for today witb an off and on shower. Smoked a turkey overnight and I am ready to start a full day of gluttony. I am worried about driving back to Dallas on Saturday. I saw some t-storms in the forecast. We shall see. Enjoy the day everyone!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1667 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:08 am

Damp and cool 50s here in SA with my parents, siblings, nieces, and in laws. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
:)
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1668 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:29 am

I wanted to wish all of the Texas Storm2K family and all the others Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Eat plentiful and be merry!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1669 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:52 am

Happy Thanksgiving all!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1670 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:16 am

Happy Thanksgiving S2K Family!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1671 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:36 am

Happy Thanksgiving S2k weather family from our new home in the Smokey Mountains of Western NC. It's a big change from SE Texas and certainly different living at 3500 feet above sea level on the side of a mountain! Snow is in my forecast Sunday night into Monday and may all your 'snow dreams' come true this winter!
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1672 Postby dhweather » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:48 am

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Looks like no Leon Lett game today. :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1673 Postby harp » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:39 pm

GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1674 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:54 pm

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! A gloomy Thanksgiving weather day ongoing however its mild even though it looks like it should be 40F outside.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1675 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:12 pm

harp wrote:GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.


Isn't it always at the end of the run
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1676 Postby Cerlin » Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:34 pm

This weather is near perfect for thanksgiving (aside from the lack of snow), which reminds of how thankful I am for the whole Storm2K community. I hope each and every one of you has a safe, wonderful thanksgiving and I’m extremely thankful to be a member of this community. :cheesy: :)
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1677 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:33 pm

Brent wrote:
harp wrote:GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.


Isn't it always at the end of the run


Lol yup! :roll:
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1678 Postby harp » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:07 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
harp wrote:GFS finally drives some cold air south at the end of the 12Z run.


Isn't it always at the end of the run


Lol yup! :roll:


Well, it hadn't been doing that in the past, so.... It certainly isn't going to put it at the beginning....
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1679 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:10 pm

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. This question is for ntxw. What are your thoughts on the mjo from this point? Is there anyway to tell where it goes or when it may reemerge in better phases for us or is it to early to know?
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1680 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:16 pm

Happy Thanksgiving yall! Hope everyone had a great one.

Unfortunately I'm not seeing much in the way of any exciting weather for us anytime soon. Hopefully things will change as we head through December.
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