Texas Fall 2019

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1621 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:50 am

gpsnowman wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Remember the rule of forecasting. Day 1 is 100% accuracy, and subtract 10% each day out from there. There is 0% accuracy @ 10 days out.

I don't start buying into the possibility of anything more than 3 days out. The weather rock currently says sunny, cold, and frosty start to sunday. :ggreen:
Weather Rock?

https://youtu.be/8nwfVh_39Bg
The great Harold Taft


Great old video clip, the weather rock is never wrong. :wink:
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1622 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:02 pm

Unfortunately the snow will stay north of where I will be in Kansas this week unless you believe some weird GFS runs. But, they are getting snow this year, which is a good sign for us. Their snow drought is ending.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1623 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:16 pm

According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1624 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:41 pm

Hurricane_Apu wrote:According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...


Coldest high here on the ensembles is around 50 some pattern that is. I hope before too deep into the month we see a better pattern
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1625 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:45 pm

Brent wrote:
Hurricane_Apu wrote:According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...


Coldest high here on the ensembles is around 50 some pattern that is. I hope before too deep into the month we see a better pattern

Which ensembles?
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1626 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:52 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Hurricane_Apu wrote:According to our extended forecast, Desummber will be getting off to a fast start in South Louisiana, with temps pushing 80 the first few days of the month...


Coldest high here on the ensembles is around 50 some pattern that is. I hope before too deep into the month we see a better pattern

Which ensembles?


The euro and gfs
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1627 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:56 pm

Echoes of last year...

But not going to worry unless no signs of change by mid-December.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1628 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:09 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Echoes of last year...

But not going to worry unless no signs of change by mid-December.


it's eerie isn't it

fortunately it's still early and there is more snow upstream though
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1629 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 12:49 am

I think that we are going to have to wait until after mid-end of December for a more favorable pattern. I hope we aren't chasing unicorns all winter. The IOD and mjo may be messing us up. There is probably more than just mjo, but i am suprised that the ao is forecasted to turn positive. Not sure why that will happen. Imho i feel like it has something to do with this possible SSW, but im not a weatherman lol.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1630 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:12 am

Makes sense, we have had bad luck over the years driving back home from holiday.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1631 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:38 am

Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1632 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:56 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:Weather Rock?

https://youtu.be/8nwfVh_39Bg
The great Harold Taft


Great old video clip, the weather rock is never wrong. :wink:


Lol. That's cool! I remember seeing those old hand-drawn maps on tv when I was a little kid. Cracks me up when they show the analog weather instrumentation, but at the same time, also refreshing to see such simplicity they had back then. :)
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1633 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 25, 2019 12:33 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.


We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1634 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:02 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.


We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s
What do you mean a seesaw?
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1635 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:51 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Models are now showing North Atlantic blocking breaking down as we head into mid-Dec, that would make it hard to get sustained cold in place across the Southern Plains. We will have to wait and see if that actually happens, since the models have tried this a couple of times only to trend back towards a negative NAO.


We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s
What do you mean a seesaw?


much like what we have seen already, 50's this past Friday and Saturday, 70s today and tomorrow, back to 50s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving, 70's for the weekend, and back to 50s for Monday of next week.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1636 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:40 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
We have seen the models be wrong in the past. Just last week the forecast for Wednesday was mid 70s, now its mid 50s. Thanksgiving still looks cool and wet with mid 50s. Looks like a seesaw the next 2 weeks 70s-50s-70s-50s
What do you mean a seesaw?


much like what we have seen already, 50's this past Friday and Saturday, 70s today and tomorrow, back to 50s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving, 70's for the weekend, and back to 50s for Monday of next week.


Basically Texas weather (exception Summer when it's the same). :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1637 Postby harp » Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:49 pm

The GFS is literally useless after about 200 hours. If flip flops every single run. Have no clue what is down the road.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1638 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:08 pm

WPC sees a wet week ahead for N. Texas

Image

Lines up with the 12z GEFS

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1639 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:09 pm



Crickets everywhere else and looks to stay that way for quite some time.
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Re: Texas Fall 2019

#1640 Postby Brent » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:12 pm

Since the cold isn't happening any thoughts on the severe potential Friday
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