STORM2K

Brent wrote:Since the cold isn't happening any thoughts on the severe potential Friday

CAPE is sufficient, nice turning in the lower atmosphere, dew points near 70(around 67 to 68) 18z GFS is forecasting nearly a loaded gun sounding, but not quite. Looks like a high shear low to medium CAPE event right now, and if so I've seen those kind of events over perform. The things to watch will be if there is lingering convection on Friday Morning and how accurate is the moisture return. Right now I'd probably predict a day 1 Enhanced risk for Friday, but if it looks like the sun will be out and the models are underestimating the CAPE and it ends up closer to 2500 J the other parameters are their for a possible moderate event.

Another Front Range snowstorm pulling out into the Plains tonight, Denver has had a pretty rocking start to this winter. I feel like that a good omen for us farther south.

The 1st two weeks of December still look cool to cold with at least a few freezes at DFW. It looks like another Super Typhoon is about to get cranking in the WPAC, maybe we can get a recurve to shake out some colder risk for December?

bubba hotep wrote:Another Front Range snowstorm pulling out into the Plains tonight, Denver has had a pretty rocking start to this winter. I feel like that a good omen for us farther south.

I hope so eventually

Extended NWS forecast now has a reasonably strong cold front at the start of the month...

The gfs is useless

6z 84 hour NAM goes out to 18z Friday. Right now it has cooler temps than the 0z GFS at that time. There's a temperature inversion at the surface, which would mean elevated convection, which would limit any tornado threat early in the day. What is interesting is how much turning it has in the low levels, absolutely crazy. If you get some surface heating in the afternoon with that amount of turning, look out! There is a small layer of VBV, which is something to watch the next few days. Hour 84 NAM is like hour 240 GFS so a lot can change still, but I do think this could be something more people need to pay attention too and I'm worried the cooler temps midweek could lure people into a false sense of security.

Monster snow storm in the Denver area right now. Absolutely crazy out there. Watching it on a stream right now.

TheProfessor wrote:Monster snow storm in the Denver area right now. Absolutely crazy out there. Watching it on a stream right now.

One of these days our dreams will come true and witness snow falling again. Until then, dream on.

gpsnowman wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:Monster snow storm in the Denver area right now. Absolutely crazy out there. Watching it on a stream right now.

One of these days our dreams will come true and witness snow falling again. Until then, dream on.

I've been quite a bit more privileged these last few years when it comes to snow, but I'm rooting for everyone in North Texas to get a good event this year.

TheProfessor wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:Monster snow storm in the Denver area right now. Absolutely crazy out there. Watching it on a stream right now.

One of these days our dreams will come true and witness snow falling again. Until then, dream on.

I've been quite a bit more privileged these last few years when it comes to snow, but I'm rooting for everyone in North Texas to get a good event this year.

Yeah, cuz of where you’ve all been, but imagine getting snow where you live in NOLA. How much more awesome would that be to experience that there or anywhere out of the ordinary? I could go up north to see snow, but tbh I wouldn’t even be that much phased by it cuz I would be expecting it. It wouldn’t be a big deal to me.

TheProfessor wrote:6z 84 hour NAM goes out to 18z Friday. Right now it has cooler temps than the 0z GFS at that time. There's a temperature inversion at the surface, which would mean elevated convection, which would limit any tornado threat early in the day. What is interesting is how much turning it has in the low levels, absolutely crazy. If you get some surface heating in the afternoon with that amount of turning, look out! There is a small layer of VBV, which is something to watch the next few days. Hour 84 NAM is like hour 240 GFS so a lot can change still, but I do think this could be something more people need to pay attention too and I'm worried the cooler temps midweek could lure people into a false sense of security.

I'm learning more toward the NAM with high's on Friday in the 67-69 range as I don't see many peaks of sun. There may be a brief break in the cloud cover late in the afternoon, but the front is expected to pass through DFW around 6pm or after which of course by then the sun has dropped below the horizen. While the tornado threat in not 0, it is low but I think the biggest issue may be hail from some of the stronger cells, quarter to golfball size.

Something else to watch as well is the highs on Thursday, the trend has been lower temps from 56 now down to 52, and may trend a little lower to upper 40's. The next cold front is expected over night Sunday with monday and tuesday forecast to be in the 50's. Front could be a little earlier Sunday than expected.

Leaving for KS today. NAM trending a bit more south with snow. I am tempted to drive two hours to Nebraska tomorrow to see it (8 inches to over a foot there) but my wife would think I’ve gone nuts.

I might see 1 inch or so overnight there Wednesday anyway, which would be great.

Still early yet, but if the clouds and light drizzle persist the high of 78 could bust. I hope so, the humidity is bad enough in the mid 60's.

Its definitely not looking good for a cold pattern anytime soon. Mjo looks to go into phase 3 and some models take it into COD after that. Probably why models are so warm. Guess we got to be patient.

Forecast of 34 for last night, got down to 28.

Spent most of yesterday traveling and in that short of time the whole set up has changed lol. As SPC highlights the whole system is forecasted to be slower and weaker, which means less warm air advection and moisture return. Elevated storms is looking like the main threat right now.

Cpv17 wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:One of these days our dreams will come true and witness snow falling again. Until then, dream on.

I've been quite a bit more privileged these last few years when it comes to snow, but I'm rooting for everyone in North Texas to get a good event this year.

Yeah, cuz of where you’ve all been, but imagine getting snow where you live in NOLA. How much more awesome would that be to experience that there or anywhere out of the ordinary? I could go up north to see snow, but tbh I wouldn’t even be that much phased by it cuz I would be expecting it. It wouldn’t be a big deal to me.

Yeah, my expectations were definitely higher when I was living up north. I think there was only 2 storms that really surprised me while living in Ohio. One of which was one of my favorite storms ever. It only dropped 5 inches, but it happened in early December around finals, none of the students were sick of snow yet so there were multiple snowmen on campus, and I had a fun football game with some of my dorm mates lol. Snow in NOLA would definitely be crazy though, even a trace of it would be impressive.

Looking at the 12z NAM, the 800mb level and above are fairly impressive severe weather wise. The surface thermodynamics are what's limiting this event right now. If the models are off about the strength of the storm and Warm Air Advection you could see a quick change towards a stronger severe weather event.

Wishing my S2K family a Happy and safe Thanksgiving

For NTX folks Thanksgiving will be a good day to spend inside enjoying football, food, and friendship hopefully by a warm fire.

GO Bears, Bills (because I want Garrett FIRED!) and Saints!!