STORM2K

bubba hotep wrote:From the FWD AFD:

By Sunday, nearly continuous troughing will connect a mid-latitude
longwave emerging from the Rockies to a relative weakness in the
Gulf. This will result in a steady transition to a tropical,
moist-adiabatic profile above North and Central Texas. While this
will reduce the severe potential, persistent lift will maintain
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout Sunday
and Monday. Extraordinary precipitation efficiency through this
protracted rain event could mean considerable flooding by Memorial
Day, both short-scale flashing flooding and more prolonged
flooding of our near-capacity river/reservoir systems.

this was amazing too

The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which
will in turn lead to more rain events. This feedback loop will
steadily develop a semi-permanent cyclone over the Lone Star
State. A blocking high over the eastern seaboard will keep the
low anchored, additional rain events only reinforcing its gloom.
It`s often a tall task for largely sub-synoptic processes to
disrupt the background pattern to this extent, but extended
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement. Warm season
patterns like this typically demonstrate considerable ensemble
spread, but that is also not the case. A prolonged heavy rain
event this time of year tends to prevent the development of
subtropical ridging; as a result, a wet pattern is projected to
dominate through the summer solstice.

I know this is from Louisiana, but this excerpt from LIX's AFD this morning was hilarious.

Forecast continues to really focus in on a wet setup next week for
much of the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast. Previous
forecasters have been mentioning this for a few days now and
confidence continues to increase in this scenario as ensemble and
operational models are all in rather decent agreement. The wet
weather may not be completely wanted but then again did everyone
REALLY want heat index readings in the mid 90s to mid 100s, yeah
didn`t think so.

Anyways, remember my warning about feedback loops. With a potential CAG system over the next few weeks, having a trough in Texas could paint a target for and storm to move up into the western Gulf.

18z 3k NAM and HRRR v4 are both sending the west Texas line of storms into DFW overnight. That is a change from earlier when models had the line dying west of DFW.

480
WWUS54 KLUB 232234 CCA
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
534 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

TXC169-232245-
/O.COR.KLUB.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200523T2245Z/
Garza TX-
534 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN GARZA COUNTY...

At 532 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 12 miles southeast of Grassland, or 13 miles south of Post,
moving northeast at 5 mph. FM669 is in the path of the tornado and
it appears the tornado will remain south of the city of Post.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Post.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. take
immediate tornado precautions. this is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 10156 3307 10156 3323 10137 3301 10118
3296 10129 3296 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 244DEG 5KT 3301 10146

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...3.00IN

$$

Still havent seen a drop of rain. Really hope it changes soon!

Looking pretty healthy

Got zip from the rain.

I am doubting the flood is coming frankly with two major misses so far reducing rainfall chances.

If it were really going to be bad, they would have issued a flash flood watch.

They haven’t.

Both the NAM and HRRR show only light rain.

Very complicated setup over the next few days but many portions of Texas will see lots of heavy rain. The chaos induced by multiple daily MCS moving across the state will make it hard to pin down exactly who gets the most rain. Good luck to the operational forecasters out there

Heaviest rain so far has been hit or miss with these clusters/mcs activity.

However the real rain will come with the parent ULL vortmax that will spin down and sit over the red river valley. The flood threat will increase significantly as this feature meanders slowly. Be patient, last Saturday gave us a taste of a slow moving ULL system, this one is even slower.



Another clue that we all could see flood issues...dewpoints are well into the 70s. A prime ingredient needed for a major rain event. I would throw the models out and go by conventional forecasting.

Storm in Ellis County moving northward towards Dallas county is looking ominous.

Ntxw wrote:Storm in Ellis County moving northward towards Dallas county is looking ominous.

Is it just me or is that storm moving more Northwest.

Ntxw wrote:Heaviest rain so far has been hit or miss with these clusters/mcs activity.

However the real rain will come with the parent ULL vortmax that will spin down and sit over the red river valley. The flood threat will increase significantly as this feature meanders slowly. Be patient, last Saturday gave us a taste of a slow moving ULL system, this one is even slower.

https://i.imgur.com/HhmXwPR.gif

Another clue that we all could see flood issues...dewpoints are well into the 70s. A prime ingredient needed for a major rain event. I would throw the models out and go by conventional forecasting.

Thanks Ntxw. By looking at the models I’m not really all that impressed with rain totals compared to what they were showing a couple days ago. I don’t see a situation where anyone will get any significant rain or have a flood threat. I also don’t really see anything on the operationals that have any training going on. Just looks like a few quick moving rounds of heavy rain for most of us, but again I’m just going by the models and not old school forecasting.

EnnisTx wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Storm in Ellis County moving northward towards Dallas county is looking ominous.

Is it just me or is that storm moving more Northwest.

Not just you, looks like most of the moisture is just rotating in from the southeast.

The intensity and coverage of the storms east of DFW has put a big dent in the CAPE across N. Texas, even without delivering much in the way of widespread rain. That probably makes us stable enough that we will see an MCS push from West Texas to our south with storms struggling to maintain into the stable air left across N. Texas.

I'm not impressed with the rain so far

The rain looked promising and then poofed. Weather is amazing outside though for almost June.

Man, Austin is getting hammered rn. Going to be some impressive rain totals coming outta there.

Cpv17 wrote:Man, Austin is getting hammered rn. Going to be some impressive rain totals coming outta there.

Indeed. Storms have been stalled over the area with a large round yet to come

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Line of strong thunderstorms currently moving across the area with rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches. Leading edge is becoming detached from the outflow boundary suggesting the storms will be weakening as the move southward and rainfall rates which were 2-4 inches earlier over N Waller and Montgomery Counties have lessened to near 1-2 inches. Main threat will be short duration street flooding under the heaviest rainfall.

Tonight:

Radar is extremely active out west along the Rio Grande where the next round of weather will be developing and moving quickly toward SE TX tonight. Models show this line of storms quickly reaching the area between midnight and 400am, but it looks to be moving at a decent rate so thinking another 1-2 inches for most areas with this line.

Monday:

Upper level [low] begins to form over TX with continued high rain chances. Air mass may take much of the morning and early afternoon to recover from the morning line of weather, but trigger temperatures are only in the low 80’s, so it will not take much heating to set things off. Storm motions could be fairly slow Monday afternoon and this could lead to excessive rainfall rates in a short period of time.

Tuesday-Thursday:

Upper level [low] remains parked over the state with rounds of storms at nearly any time. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat.

Rainfall Amounts:

Moisture profiles certainly support heavy to excessive rainfall rates as seen today and if storms slow of train for a period of times totals could quickly add up. Grounds will saturate over time leading to increasing and eventually maximum run-off conditions…so the threat may grow from mainly street flooding to potential rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers. Hard to pin point any day or time or location that has a higher flood risk than another…so will just have to closely watch each convective episode and be prepared to react quickly.

Jeff Lindner

It got cool out this evening. Dropped to 70 already. I hope the storms west of here can hold together but I will be asleep if they do.