STORM2K

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

DonWrk wrote:

This statement made me believe we were about to be in for it. Now I feel like the summer pattern is already here, with models showing very little rain for the next 2-3 weeks.

Unless we get that epac crossover.

Yeah the pattern sure did flip fast I remember when it was gonna rain all week

Yep. All the way into the first part of June lol

EWX discussion


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
After yesterday`s severe weather event that left large swaths of
quarter sized hail or greater, several hail reports between 2-2.75
inches, and gusty winds in several spots it looks like there will be
one more round of strong to severe storms this evening before
quieter weather prevails tomorrow into the weekend.

With the pesky upper level low to the northeast of Texas, over the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border, it leaves South Central Texas in a
northwest flow pattern. Despite several rounds of storms over the
last few days southeasterly winds at the surface continue to allow
for plentiful moisture return between the rounds. Couple this with
lift associated with daytime heating and a boundary moving in from
the north, instability of between 2000-3000 j/KG, and just enough
shear to help the storms maintain the strength and you get the
recipe for the strong to severe storms today. Convective initiation
is already ongoing across San Angelo`s area from San Angelo south to
Junction. This is earlier than really any of the convective allowing
models showed CI ongoing today. Several severe thunderstorm
warnings have already been issued for this activity.

The spread of the morning high resolution models really resolved
into 3 camps: 1) some (like the Texas Tech WRF) developed storms
into a complex that could dive to the southeast and impact areas
from San Antonio to Austin, 2) others (like many members of the 12z
SPC HREF) developed storms to the north of our area and took them
generally south through the Edwards Plateau along and west of HWY
281, 3) Lastly the HRRR has trended drier for most of its runs since
12z with only isolated storms through the evening. Just using
current radar trends with the activity over SJT`s CWA the 2nd
scenario seems most likely. Outflows are driving the storms more to
the south and are kicking off additional storms. The 1st scenario
does remain feasible as the storms could come together developing a
cold pool, and drive to the southeast. The 12z/16z SPC updates take
this scenario into account as they extended the slight risk eastward
from just across the Rio Grande Plains to a Kerrville to San Antonio
to Cuero line. Trends will have to be monitored through the
afternoon, but still think that the best chances for storms will be
along and west of the HWY 281 corridor through the evening. An MCD
just issued by SPC highlights the risk of rapid updraft
intensification due to the steep lapse rates which would mainly lead
to a hail threat in the short term. If/when these storms grow
upscale and develop that cold pool and become a complex of storms
damaging thunderstorm winds would become the main concern.

All of this is occurring within the northwest flow aloft along the
leading edge of a weak front. Models show a distinct northerly wind
shift with drier and slightly cooler air working south later this
evening into the overnight behind the storms. This along with the
upper level ridge building in from the west as the upper low exits
tomorrow will squash any further rain chances and lead to a drying
trend for Friday into much of next week. With the drier air in place
afternoon highs should only climb into the mid to upper 80s to lower
90s for Friday and Saturday. This is very close to normal for this
time of the year. Looking back at the months of April and May our
County Warning Area was under a Marginal, Slight, or Enhanced risk
of severe storms from SPC over 50 percent of the days. As I said in
the morning update AFD I think most folks in South Central Texas
will welcome the quieter weather pattern and seasonable temperatures
through the middle of next week. Whether it has been the busy
emergency managers and local TV/private/NWS meteorologists or those
who have been impacted by the hail/wind/tornadoes over the last few
weeks it will give us all time to take a breath and enjoy the quiet
weather.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Fairly quiet weather pattern will be in place to start the long term
with an omega block setting up over the CONUS. An upper level ridge
will build over the middle of the US and a large upper level trough
over the Pacific and another over the Northeast US. The only feature
preventing a true omega block pattern setting up will be an inverted
trough that global models keep over Mexico and southern TX late this
weekend. The feature will slowly advect northward and push some
energy up into South-Central TX by early next week. Only have slight
chances for showers and storms in the forecast for Monday into
Tuesday for this.

Apart from this, a benign pattern will remain in place with high
temperatures running close to climatological normals and little to
no chance for rain. A much needed break from the active weather the
region has had over the last couple of weeks.

Hailing again at my parent's house right now in SA. Second day in a row. :/

Ugh why does this pattern have to end

0z GFS keeps going back and forth on a tropical threat in the long range

weatherdude1108 wrote:Hailing again at my parent's house right now in SA. Second day in a row. :/

Dude that’s crazy. I’ve only seen hail maybe 5 times my entire life.

Brent wrote:0z GFS keeps going back and forth on a tropical threat in the long range

https://i.ibb.co/KbBVfTP/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-45.png

This is getting closer to the range of reality. 11 days not 16.

Rain went poof. Welcome to summer.

If a tropical thing happens it will likely hit SE TX and LA and miss DFW. Can’t recall the last system that just went up 35.

rwfromkansas wrote:Rain went poof. Welcome to summer.

If a tropical thing happens it will likely hit SE TX and LA and miss DFW. Can’t recall the last system that just went up 35.

Tropical Storm Bill in 2015 made landfall around Matagorda Bay and went almost directly up the 35 corridor, so it's possible DFW could get some rain if this storm were to come to fruition.

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Brent wrote:0z GFS keeps going back and forth on a tropical threat in the long range

https://i.ibb.co/KbBVfTP/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-45.png

This is getting closer to the range of reality. 11 days not 16.

Let’s get it to within 7 days before really considering it happening. Just my opinion.

Cpv17 wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Hailing again at my parent's house right now in SA. Second day in a row. :/

Dude that’s crazy. I’ve only seen hail maybe 5 times my entire life.

I know, right? They rarely see hail down there, much less two days in a row!lol They had started cleaning up leaves and twigs from the first storm Wednesday night, then it hailed again. I told him he maybe should have waited to start cleaning. Ah well. I'm sure they'll need a new roof.

TarrantWx wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Rain went poof. Welcome to summer.

If a tropical thing happens it will likely hit SE TX and LA and miss DFW. Can’t recall the last system that just went up 35.

Tropical Storm Bill in 2015 made landfall around Matagorda Bay and went almost directly up the 35 corridor, so it's possible DFW could get some rain if this storm were to come to fruition.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Bill_2015_track.png/1024px-Bill_2015_track.png

My first summer here I remember it well

Hold up. Todays 12z models are wanting a low from the gulf to track closer to texas on sunday. GFS, euro, CMC showing some good rain chances

0z Euro ensemble members look threatening for Texas.

Cpv17 wrote:0z Euro ensemble members look threatening for Texas.

There is an ULL over Mexico that eventually rotates through Texas and opens up over the Northern Gulf. That will keep shear pretty high over most of the Gulf through next week giving any potential system only a smaller area of favorable conditions. There is a pretty big ridge over the Eastern US and then eventually a trough moves in the NW US allowing for any system to come up out of the BOC into Texas. Overall, conditions don't look favorable but this could end up being a big rain producer for parts of Texas.

bubba hotep wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:0z Euro ensemble members look threatening for Texas.

There is an ULL over Mexico that eventually rotates through Texas and opens up over the Northern Gulf. That will keep shear pretty high over most of the Gulf through next week giving any potential system only a smaller area of favorable conditions. There is a pretty big ridge over the Eastern US and then eventually a trough moves in the NW US allowing for any system to come up out of the BOC into Texas. Overall, conditions don't look favorable but this could end up being a big rain producer for parts of Texas.

Interesting. So now models went from being dry to being wet again at least down here

Cpv17 wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:0z Euro ensemble members look threatening for Texas.

There is an ULL over Mexico that eventually rotates through Texas and opens up over the Northern Gulf. That will keep shear pretty high over most of the Gulf through next week giving any potential system only a smaller area of favorable conditions. There is a pretty big ridge over the Eastern US and then eventually a trough moves in the NW US allowing for any system to come up out of the BOC into Texas. Overall, conditions don't look favorable but this could end up being a big rain producer for parts of Texas.

Interesting. So now models went from being dry to being wet again at least down here

Yea but betting on moisture from tropical systems is always super tricky.

Plenty of time to watch the models and I'll dismiss any runs that track the vort max west of DFW showing lots of rain for MBY lol

12z EPS still intriguing

Brent wrote:12z EPS still intriguing

https://i.ibb.co/FBtWxMK/received-251208656151396.jpg

Yes sir!!

As long as it stays weak, I’d like some more of that 0z GFS please. Not really sure how it manages to strengthen over land though.