STORM2K

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an ÈNHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms and potential tornadoes for a HUGE swath across the Deep South and the Southeastern United States, especially tomorrow, Sunday April 19. Looking at the model data, and the dynamics in place, this next outbreak could very well be even worse than last weekend's deadly outbreak, which kllled 33 people across the Deep South.

People definitely need to be on extreme high alert this weekend as this unfotunately will be another potentially devastating severe weather event. People living across the Deep South please heed the warnings when they are issued and please be safe!!!

Moderate risk on the map from northeast LA eastward across MS and AL...the very same areas that took a terrible beating a week ago (Monroe LA and MS). At least areas on the northern end of last week's action look to be above the fray but there is meaningful overlap from NE LA to the SC lowcountry. Another classic deep south outbreak looks possible if not probable...

A little bit of chatter on Twitter (late Saturday night) that SPC will go High Risk in the morning.

IF that talk proves to be correct, some of the posters are indicating that parts of Mississippi and Alabama could be included in that HR.

I guess we’ll see in a few hours.

And almost as soon as I posted that note above, it looks like SPC expanded enhanced risk.

But they DID NOT go high risk across portions of the South.

Texas Snowman wrote:And almost as soon as I posted that note above, it looks like SPC expanded enhanced risk.

But they DID NOT go high risk across portions of the South.

It’s pretty clear they almost did. The discussion explicitly mentions a concentrated area of higher tornado probabilities in SE Mississippi through south-central Alabama, but it is not reflected in the graphics. I’m guessing they’re either waiting for further model continuity or to see if any morning convection scours the atmosphere to any degree.

It is going to be a very active and potentially very dangerous evening into the overnight across the Deep South as the vigorous shortwave disturbance traverses across the region. Severe thunderstorms and a likely potential for tornadoes look imminent! Looking at the 12Z model runs from earlier today, some severe storms will fire across Northern LA late this afternoon. The greatest concentration of severe weather will focus early this evening across msinly Central and South/Central areas of MS, ÀL and across GA into the overnight, with severe storms moving lnto the Carolinas later into the early morning hours on Monday. Again, please heed to the warnings when they are issued! This is so critically important, since this severe weather and potential tornado threat will occur during this evening when.it is dark and during the pre-dawn hours on tomorrow!

That is the TX/LA border

So far we're doing pretty well. No active tornado warnings right now. the threat may actually increase later on so vigilance is warranted but so far...we'll take it

It also looks like our front has set up shop a good bit south of where we expected it. it's barely above the FL/GA line. One would think the severe risk and flooding rain risk would be farther south as well. Those I-10 CWAs from all the way to Jacksonville may get more than they bargained for with this while areas to the north get a break.

James Spann watch, one might say

Tornado Warning in SW Alabama as Dopplar radar showing potential tornado near Needham, Alabama.

Earlier the Jackson MS NWS issued a warning for a confirmed large tornado approaching the Hattiesburg area. It looks like it passed just south of there and is still showing up well on Doppler. Haven't heard any reports yet. This is only a few miles from a 2 mile wide tornado last weekend.