Texas Fall 2020

[Brent]

GFS has trended from near freezing on Tuesday this morning to the mid to upper 40s now in Dallas which is much more in line with the Euro

I don't think there's much of a mystery especially with the Euro always being too warm

Hopefully we get a good rain out of it


trend gif here its ugly https://ibb.co/vPBDCs4

[DonWrk]

06z is back to a winter wonderland.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Weather Channel app has high around 44 Tuesday with Rain DFW. Mid to upper 30*s around parts of Texoma. Very intresting.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah i get it. Super early for a big storm like that, but the air coming down on the op GFS is very cold.

By looking at the GFS Ens and Euro Ens, i dont believe it will play out anyway. Would have been nice though. The GFS from a few days ago is what we want though. Trough diving through the Rockies down to or below Big Bend. Lets hope for more of that.

You've mentioned but yeah, I'm interested as in the cause of it all vs the end result. It's only October for sure.

We really need the East Pacific to come through this winter. We need the Nina to behave more like a Nina then the quasi Nino or quasi Nina hybrids we have seen since 2015. It seems the best patterns comes when the tropical Pacific is polar opposite of the Northeast Pacific. (Big EPO warm pool, cool Nina; Cold pool EPO and warm Nino).

We've consistently trended dry for months now. To me it signals the regimes changed. Changing regimes tends to feature interesting weather.

Quasi-Nina 2016 - North Pacific was terrible


2017 had a better looking Nina but the EPO waters were very cold.

So far right now...let's hope we can keep this look to load North America with some cold air with big ridges over the NPO.

This is why I think we have a cold winter. If we can get some -AO then we are really talking but a consistent -EPO will deliver cold. The Nina will limit moisture but when there is moisture to be had winter fun will be possible as cold air will be plentiful. With La Nina in place though any +EPO periods could get pretty warm though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

17-18 we had 3-4 different winter events here in SE Tx. Last year, i gave up on any kind of nino being a great analog for us. Always SO many other factors, because if you look at 09-10, that was a nino year, but had persistent blocking near Greenland. If I have to pick now, rolling with La Nina with warm pool in GOM.

Just give us big highs coming down at least. That's La Nina's specialty. The dynamics of where the trough comes down is also very important. Lots of luck involved!

What the GFS is showing in the 06z, if this were January, I think we would be looking at an epic winter storm.

[Brent]

Lot of talk about Mondays front but tomorrow's is no slouch DFW could start in the 70s and be into the 40s by late afternoon with strong north winds

[northjaxpro]

The NAM beginning at 00Z tonight will be interesting as it will provide its first glimpse within 84 hours of the event. NAM is always a very good winter synoptics model as most of you are aware.

[starsfan65]

The NAM beginning at 00Z tonight will be interesting as it will provide its first glimpse within 84 hours of the event. NAM is always a very good winter synoptics model as most of you are aware.

That's true!! Very good indeed!!

[Brent]

Speaking of the NAM decent line mid morning tomorrow for DFW hopefully we can get a quick solid shot of rain since the airport is still sitting at zero this late in the month

[Ntxw]

Lot of talk about Mondays front but tomorrow's is no slouch DFW could start in the 70s and be into the 40s by late afternoon with strong north winds

https://i.ibb.co/gjwz4v8/image1-1.jpg

We've all slept on this for sure. Front tomorrow is the leading edge/chunk of the big EPO dump, while the main part comes later.

[starsfan65]

Lot of talk about Mondays front but tomorrow's is no slouch DFW could start in the 70s and be into the 40s by late afternoon with strong north winds

https://i.ibb.co/gjwz4v8/image1-1.jpg

We've all slept on this for sure. Front tomorrow is the leading edge/chunk of the big EPO dump, while the main part comes later.

Friday is just a preview of what is coming up on Monday.

[TropicalTundra]

Front traveling at a good pace, should be in CTX faster pace than usual.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 42, windchill 34. Picked up 1” of rain.

[Brent]

Much better rain event than I was expecting hopefully thats a good sign for next week

[Quixotic]

Operational GFS sticking to its guns for next week.

[HockeyTx82]

Operational GFS sticking to its guns for next week.

For what? Snow and ice?

[Quixotic]

Operational GFS sticking to its guns for next week.

For what? Snow and ice?

More sleet or freezing rain. I wouldn't expect more than a few pingers or a very chilly rain. However, the warm waters off of the west coast gives me hope of a persistent or occasional -EPO which would give us a shot at a 13-14 type of winter. That would be nice. Transient shots of cold and frozen precip.

[Brent]

Operational GFS sticking to its guns for next week.

For what? Snow and ice?

More sleet or freezing rain. I wouldn't expect more than a few pingers or a very chilly rain. However, the warm waters off of the west coast gives me hope of a persistent or occasional -EPO which would give us a shot at a 13-14 type of winter. That would be nice. Transient shots of cold and frozen precip.

Yeah it's freezing rain with extremely borderline temps towards the Falls I wouldn't expect much with how warm it's been the snow is confined to way up in the Panhandle

[Cerlin]

I think it’s becoming increasingly likely that most of NTX won’t see much of anything, maybe some freezing rain really far north. However, with how cold last night’s front seemed to be comparatively (was running 2-3° colder in Norman today than anticipated), it could be possible that Monday-Wednesday overperforms as well. I’m interested to see how the NAM develops as we move closer as the Euro tends to not handle arctic blasts well and the GFS tends to have a weird cold bias.

[TropicalTundra]

I really wish we would have something happen over here in Belton, I have been waiting for a winter event since last February. At least we get some rain that we’ve needed for a long time here