Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

Severe storms STILL possible Next Tuesday, the Euro model consistency is crazy!

[ElectricStorm]

Severe storms STILL possible Next Tuesday, the Euro model consistency is crazy!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day6prob.gif

The GFS might be caving towards the Euro, so if the Euro ends up being correct, assuming there's no cap issues, this could be huge.

[Iceresistance]

Severe storms STILL possible Next Tuesday, the Euro model consistency is crazy!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day6prob.gif

The GFS might be caving towards the Euro, so if the Euro ends up being correct, assuming there's no cap issues, this could be huge.

Also assuming that the cap is not too strong, but strong enough to only allow the strongest supercells to form . . .

Latest SREF model may warrant a Enchanced risk in SE Texas Tomorrow . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Severe storms STILL possible Next Tuesday, the Euro model consistency is crazy!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day6prob.gif

The GFS might be caving towards the Euro, so if the Euro ends up being correct, assuming there's no cap issues, this could be huge.

Also assuming that the cap is not too strong, but strong enough to only allow the strongest supercells to form . . .

Latest SREF model may warrant a Enchanced risk in SE Texas Tomorrow . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

The CAMs last night had messy storm modes which is why they didn't go enhanced for now. The SREF only takes into account favorable storm mode, so if it's messy then then it won't matter as much. Still though, seeing a 90 contour is concerning. I think they'll upgrade to enhanced for hail and maybe tornadoes at some point.

[Iceresistance]

I found this sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +36 Hours . . .



What makes the sounding interesting is that it's in a SCP of a 1 . . .

[Iceresistance]

Found this 18z GFS Model sounding . . .

Near Tecumseh, OK


South of Anadarko, OK. Sounding is from the NAM model, 18z

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS continues to trend towards the Euro in regards to timing for Tuesday. Shows plenty of moisture, but still shows hardly any cape, so not really sure what's up with that. Maybe it's an issue with the upgrade as it seems to be doing this with multiple events now. Anyway for now I think a Day 5 enhanced is possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wait until Day 4. We'll see what the 0z models have.

Tuesday certainly has a very high ceiling but obviously nothing is set in stone until the day of. One thing that shouldn't be an issue though is morning convection, although cloud cover could be an issue, but again that's another thing that won't be known until the day of. It's not impossible that a 4/26/16 scenario could happen, but I'm leaning against that for now.

So basically Tuesday could be big, but nothing is guaranteed. We'll see...

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS continues to trend towards the Euro in regards to timing for Tuesday. Shows plenty of moisture, but still shows hardly any cape, so not really sure what's up with that. Maybe it's an issue with the upgrade as it seems to be doing this with multiple events now. Anyway for now I think a Day 5 enhanced is possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wait until Day 4. We'll see what the 0z models have.

Tuesday certainly has a very high ceiling but obviously nothing is set in stone until the day of. One thing that shouldn't be an issue though is morning convection, although cloud cover could be an issue, but again that's another thing that won't be known until the day of. It's not impossible that a 4/26/16 scenario could happen, but I'm leaning against that for now.

So basically Tuesday could be big, but nothing is guaranteed. We'll see...

What happened on April 26th, 2016?

The 18z GFS is showing lesser amounts of ESRH (Effective Storm-Relative Helicity) & STPC during the run, evidenced by the Model Soundings . . .

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS continues to trend towards the Euro in regards to timing for Tuesday. Shows plenty of moisture, but still shows hardly any cape, so not really sure what's up with that. Maybe it's an issue with the upgrade as it seems to be doing this with multiple events now. Anyway for now I think a Day 5 enhanced is possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wait until Day 4. We'll see what the 0z models have.

Tuesday certainly has a very high ceiling but obviously nothing is set in stone until the day of. One thing that shouldn't be an issue though is morning convection, although cloud cover could be an issue, but again that's another thing that won't be known until the day of. It's not impossible that a 4/26/16 scenario could happen, but I'm leaning against that for now.

So basically Tuesday could be big, but nothing is guaranteed. We'll see...

What happened on April 26th, 2016?

The 18z GFS is showing lesser amounts of ESRH (Effective Storm-Relative Helicity) & STPC during the run, evidenced by the Model Soundings . . .

15 hatched moderate in OK/KS. Pre-squall tornado threat completely busted, but the squall line had some potent winds. Lots of cloud cover

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS continues to trend towards the Euro in regards to timing for Tuesday. Shows plenty of moisture, but still shows hardly any cape, so not really sure what's up with that. Maybe it's an issue with the upgrade as it seems to be doing this with multiple events now. Anyway for now I think a Day 5 enhanced is possible, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wait until Day 4. We'll see what the 0z models have.

Tuesday certainly has a very high ceiling but obviously nothing is set in stone until the day of. One thing that shouldn't be an issue though is morning convection, although cloud cover could be an issue, but again that's another thing that won't be known until the day of. It's not impossible that a 4/26/16 scenario could happen, but I'm leaning against that for now.

So basically Tuesday could be big, but nothing is guaranteed. We'll see...

What happened on April 26th, 2016?

The 18z GFS is showing lesser amounts of ESRH (Effective Storm-Relative Helicity) & STPC during the run, evidenced by the Model Soundings . . .

15 hatched moderate in OK/KS. Pre-squall tornado threat completely busted, but the squall line had some potent winds. Lots of cloud cover

A couple years ago, there was a 15% Hatched along I-44 from Chandler to Vinita that COMPLETELY busted, but the winds were nasty there . . . (Up to 85 mph winds were reported in Pryor)

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR still has a messy storm mode for tomorrow in TX. What interests me though is that squall line it's showing for central/eastern OK. Might get upgraded to a slight risk if that verifies.

[ElectricStorm]

Personal outlook predictions for tonight:
Day 1 (Fri)- Coin flip between slight and enhanced. I could see an enhanced for hail, but I doubt they go enhanced for tornadoes.
Day 2 (Sat)- Slight. It's got potential to get upgraded later but I think they maintain the slight risk for the first Day 2 outlook.
Day 5 (Tue)- Coin flip between slight and enhanced. I wouldn't be surprised by either honestly. Could go either way.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 1 enhanced for a 30% wind risk


Big slight risk for Day 2. They do mention higher probs may be needed in future outlooks.

[Iceresistance]

10z HRRR has a Bow Echo Squall line over me at +18 hours!

[cstrunk]

The East Texas and Louisiana threat looks pretty dang messy and will be in questionable to poor chase terrain. The extreme NW Texas threat looks like a pretty good bet to at least see 2-3 isolated supercells. The tornado threat may be a tad bit lower but from a storm chasing perspective, that's where I would target.

[ElectricStorm]

Enhanced risk added for today for central/southern OK

[ElectricStorm]

Day 5 still remains a slight risk. One thing to note is that the 6z GFS has the system moving slower, closer to the Euro solution, which would favor the higher threat...

[Iceresistance]

ENHANCED risk now in place in Central & Southern Oklahoma!



The Enhanced risk is mainly for wind.

[InfernoFlameCat]

April be dud unless tuesday produces something big

[Iceresistance]

April be dud unless tuesday produces something big

Well, Today may be big with Wind . . .

12z HRRR Model . . .