Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#901 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:28 am

4/22 looks like a day to watch for the plains. Moisture will likely be a problem so it won't be a huge event but there could be something. Also, I know it's fantasy range but the end of that GFS run is very interesting for early May...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#902 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:37 pm

Time to see what the 0z GFS has for us... the 18z looked very interesting for the plains in the 4/30-5/3 range. Let's see if that continues. (It's fantasy range so a lot will change)
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#903 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:42 pm

Well hello there 4/26
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Further south for 4/27
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Geez 4/29... Getting into the fantasy portion of the run now but dang...
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Wow what a run. I won't post any maps for 4/30 onward at this point as it's so far out but pretty much every day starting 4/26 has potential. That should line up with the MJO moving into Phase 8. Signs of the pattern change coming... Buckle up folks
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#904 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 18, 2021 6:39 pm

Setting a target date for 4/27 in the plains. Not saying it's going to be that exact date, but it looks like there might be something around that time frame. Also watching the 4/23-25 range for some possible dixie alley action...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#905 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:49 pm

Target date stands, for now at least...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#906 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:34 am

We need some action
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#907 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:27 am

Severe weather potential in Southern to Northern Texas & the Southern Half of Oklahoma this Friday . . .

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#908 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:17 am

Iceresistance here comes your storms. Hopefully you don't get a dry slot again. :D
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#909 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:29 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Iceresistance here comes your storms. Hopefully you don't get a dry slot again. :D


Well, I got hammered by 2 storms a couple weeks ago, the first one had up to Quarter sized hail for 10 minutes & the other storm had Nickel sized hail for around 3 minutes . . .
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#910 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:53 pm

GFS doesn't like 4/23 very much, but Euro and SPC do. I'm siding with the Euro and SPC for right now, but we'll know more in a few days when the CAMs get in range.

It's worth noting that both models have been consistent on a potential setup early next week that could be significant.

A couple of big severe weather anniversaries coming up around that time. Monday will be 30 years since 4/26/91 and Tuesday is obviously 10 years since the super outbreak
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#911 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:59 pm

I found this uncontaminated sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +195 hours


Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#912 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:25 pm

This may be in the Fantasy range of the GFS model, but this setup is dangerously similar to the May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma, ON MAY 3RD! :eek:

Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#913 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This may be in the Fantasy range of the GFS model, but this setup is dangerously similar to the May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma, ON MAY 3RD! :eek:

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/2021041918_GFS_342_35.24-96.97_severe_ml.png

That's so far out there it'll be gone next run. I'm more concerned with the potential setup early next week for now. It's a ways out too, but the models have been pretty consistent so far...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#914 Postby Brent » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:31 pm

In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow :spam:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#915 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:16 pm

Brent wrote:In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow :spam:

Maybe if I just ignore it it'll go away :D :D
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#916 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:20 pm

0z GFS might be caving to the Euro. This run shows a bit more potential for Friday than previous runs.
Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#917 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:37 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Brent wrote:In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow :spam:

Maybe if I just ignore it it'll go away :D :D


at least it'll be quick 40s by afternoon lol
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#918 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:29 am

Friday looks very potent in the Southern Plains, spreads over into Dixie Alley Saturday . . .

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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#919 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:30 am

I like this something is brewing amongst mother nature.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#920 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:04 am

So we have a day 4 slight, a Day 5 slight, and SPC says we may have a day 7 (!) slight on tomorrow's outlook... Welcome to spring
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