Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1521 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:57 am

Could get interesting out there tomorrow. After a record shattering October, it looks like November wants to get on the board for severe weather, although this shouldn't be anything like those Oct events.
Image

November is usually more active than October for severe weather although that won't be the case this year. 2% tor risk up right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see perhaps a small 5% area issued for N TX at some point. 0z HRRR shows a couple discrete cells down there, with a squall line for OK. This event won't be anything crazy by any means, but it could still get interesting.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1522 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:50 am

Slight risk is now larger, there is a Hatched area or Hail in Central & Southern Oklahoma, a separate Slight risk is also in place for parts of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, & Kansas.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1523 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:00 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has gone up for this area for tonight, here we go.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1524 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 10, 2021 8:33 pm

Nothing like a spinup when it gets into Tulsa :double: really didn't look like much coming in
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1525 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:49 am

Marginal risk of Severe Storms is in place for Dixie Alley Sunday, first one in December 2021
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1526 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 05, 2021 7:10 am

Slight Risk across most of Arkansas today.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1527 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:33 pm

Friday could get interesting for parts of the deep south up to the Ohio valley. Day 3 slight risk up already. Could be the first widespread event since the October events.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1528 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:41 am

Enhanced risk now in place for the Ohio & Mississippi river valleys
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1529 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:53 am

There is a literal Hurricane Warning for Alaska right now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1530 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:14 am

10 hatched tor risk already for Friday. This is going to be a nocturnal event, and will be a dangerous one. First look at HRRR is pretty messy storm mode but HRRR usually isn't great until right before the event so we'll see what it shows tonight.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1531 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:48 am

Quite the large 10 hatched
Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1532 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:29 am

Moderate risk is up. Big yikes
15 hatched tor risk. This will all be at night so certainly not ideal. This is the first 15 hatched in Dec since 12/16/19 and only the second since 2015.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1533 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:59 am

Weather Dude wrote:Moderate risk is up. Big yikes
15 hatched tor risk. This will all be at night so certainly not ideal. This is the first 15 hatched in Dec since 12/16/19 and only the second since 2015.


This is a really bad for the timing since almost no one would be able to see it unless there is Lightning or Powerflashes.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1534 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:58 pm

Tornado Watch out, 90/70% chance of tornadoes, that's really big for December.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1535 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Tornado Watch out, 90/70% chance of tornadoes, that's really big for December.

That's big for any time of the year tbh. But especially for December. The 90/70 probs on this watch are the highest tor probs in the month of December since 12/23/15, which had a 90/80 PDS watch.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1536 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:27 pm

Tornado Warnings in Missouri & Arkansas, this is going to be a long night for them.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1537 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:45 pm

Jonesboro took a big hit from an EF3 last year and now a confirmed tornado is heading right towards them again...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1538 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:00 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Jonesboro took a big hit from an EF3 last year and now a confirmed tornado is heading right towards them again...


It's now a PDS Tornado Warning, it's already very close to Jonesboro.

Radar is showing that it might just barely miss Jonesboro.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1539 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:12 pm

Need to watch the Mayflower, AR Supercell, that thing has a nasty hook to it
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1540 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:19 pm

The Tornado has missed Jonesboro, barely! It was less than a mile from Downtown Jonesboro.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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