Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1361 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu May 27, 2021 5:54 pm

Brent wrote:Lol nothing of note here in South Tulsa going around us :lol:

Lol storms hate you :D Ever since you moved up here Tulsa hasn't gotten much
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1362 Postby Brent » Thu May 27, 2021 6:02 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Brent wrote:Lol nothing of note here in South Tulsa going around us :lol:

Lol storms hate you :D Ever since you moved up here Tulsa hasn't gotten much


Lol one random tornado warning has been it :spam:

Move in day had storms and I thought that was a sign of things to come :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1363 Postby Cpv17 » Thu May 27, 2021 6:13 pm

Brent wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Brent wrote:Lol nothing of note here in South Tulsa going around us :lol:

Lol storms hate you :D Ever since you moved up here Tulsa hasn't gotten much


Lol one random tornado warning has been it :spam:

Move in day had storms and I thought that was a sign of things to come :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Lol and you leave and DFW starts getting some exciting weather
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1364 Postby AnnularCane » Thu May 27, 2021 6:39 pm

Guess Tulsa weather may be a little dull as long as Brent is living there. :lol: Although I suppose one major outbreak is possible, maybe right before he moves out...

He does attract the hail though, so maybe not totally dull. 8-)
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1365 Postby Brent » Thu May 27, 2021 7:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Lol storms hate you :D Ever since you moved up here Tulsa hasn't gotten much


Lol one random tornado warning has been it :spam:

Move in day had storms and I thought that was a sign of things to come :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Lol and you leave and DFW starts getting some exciting weather


Lol at least I was there for the winter :lol: honestly the tornadoes and hail don't do much for me lol
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1366 Postby Iceresistance » Mon May 31, 2021 1:06 pm

What will JJA (June, July, & August) look like when May is inactive?

My mother said that the Summer months are generally crazy active like May if that's the case . . .
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1367 Postby Brent » Mon May 31, 2021 4:16 pm

62 and rain on the last day of May :spam:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1368 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon May 31, 2021 10:09 pm

Well May is in the books and I have mixed thoughts about it, so I will divide this post into national impacts, and local impacts...

National:
May 2021 wasn't all that active, however it was much better than 2020 and 2018, although that's not really saying much. Only one 15 hatched tor risk day (5/26), along with the two 45 hatched wind/hail days (5/4 and 5/17) total 3 moderate risks in May, which isn't a great showing for May but it's not as abysmal as last year. Overall, the first week and the last week of the month were pretty active, with the middle portion being pretty lame. One thing that this month really featured though was the overperforming 5% tor risk/slight risk days. I mean, several of these slight risk days just went off, especially at the beginning and end of the month. There were only a couple of days that didn't live up to or exceed their expected potential. Also it's nice that the majority of these days occurred over relatively rural areas, especially the last week of the month.

Grade: C+

Local:
This is where it goes downhill... fast. I don't root for huge outbreaks. And I also don't root for tornadoes to hit in my area (or anyone's for that matter, unless it's just fields of course). That being said however, considering May is peak storm season, I would like to have some solid storms in my area. Unfortunately, for the third time in the last 4 years, this didn't really happen. I ended up with 1 solid storm day out of the entire month. One. That's 2018 and 2020 levels of inactivity here, although the one event we had this month was pretty great, much better than the single event of both of those years. Don't get me wrong here, I'd rather take the inactivity over a continuous deluge of tornado outbreaks and record setting flooding in the area like parts of 2019, but man it's tough sitting through a cool and rainy pattern instead of nice warm and occasionally stormy weather during peak storm season. If it wasn't for 5/27 coming in clutch with back to back great storms, this grade would be much lower.

Grade: C-

Now for the overall storm season: (I realize we still have June, so I'll update this post and give an overall season grade/review at the end of the month)
National:
March was absolutely insane. I mean, 2 high risk outbreaks and a moderate risk plains event would be crazy for April or May, let alone March. April was abysmal overall with zero 15 hatched tor risk days, which I mentioned in a different post back at the end of April. There were a few notable events, but not very much. I will say though that the slight risk days have really been big time this year. I'm impressed by how many of them have overperformed.

Grade: B-

Local:
Flat out terrible, one of least active seasons I've ever experienced here. Had two great events, 4/9 and 5/27, but other than that this season was just dominated by cold shots and bad timing, as a few days looked good in advance, but the storms didn't get here until early morning and by that time they're basically just showers. Besides those two days, hardly had any thunder at all here.

Grade: D+

Again we still have June to go for the northern part of the country, and perhaps a good MCS or two here hopefully, although it's been a few years since we've had a solid June event here. Anyway I'll update this again at the end of June and see where we are at.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1369 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:09 am

Introducing myself to this board. I lived in Texas all of my life, and I jut moved to Denver full time! Excited to learn more about this crazy weather.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1370 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:37 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Introducing myself to this board. I lived in Texas all of my life, and I jut moved to Denver full time! Excited to learn more about this crazy weather.


What happened to Sugar Land?
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1371 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:57 am

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Introducing myself to this board. I lived in Texas all of my life, and I jut moved to Denver full time! Excited to learn more about this crazy weather.


What happened to Sugar Land?


I have always loved Colorado, and I wanted to move here. I am selling my house in Sugarland but I still have family in the area so will be back occasionally. I will keep up with Houston weather often still.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1372 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:28 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Introducing myself to this board. I lived in Texas all of my life, and I jut moved to Denver full time! Excited to learn more about this crazy weather.


Wow that's quite a change congrats :cheesy:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1373 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:20 am

Gotta watch for a significant northern plains event for Thurs 6/10. Still a ways out but it looks like it could be potent. Day 5 highlighted by SPC.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1374 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jun 07, 2021 3:40 pm

Man, 5 simultaneous tornado warnings in Arkansas and the board is silent
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1375 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:58 pm

Was hiking Green Mountain today and i took video of the tornado near Plateville/Mead. Was 35 miles away buy could see it clearly.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1376 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:27 am

Thursday still looks pretty potent for the northern plains with a Day 3 enhanced risk up from SPC. May be more of a damaging wind event but it will be interesting to see what the CAMs have when they get in range tonight/tomorrow.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1377 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:00 pm

Moderate risk for the Dakotas today.


And under a Heat Advisory until Friday for the Heat Index up to 110, Urgh . . .

Also want to mention the the Dew Points were an estimated 74°F Yesterday Morning & 72°F This Morning, it’s kinda like torture outside! The humidity came back with a Vengeance! :onfire:
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1378 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:41 pm

Dangerous day already with multiple PDS warnings earlier. Damaging wind threat should increase in the next few hours.

Gotta watch for a sneaky MCS event in E KS/NE OK tomorrow. Wasn't paying attention much until I saw the marginal for my area on the Day 2. A couple models are showing at least a slight risk event. Will be interesting for sure.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1379 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:42 am

Enhanced risk for KS, slight risk for OK. Could this be the June MCS we've been waiting for the last few years? We're about to find out
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1380 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:43 am

Weather Dude wrote:Enhanced risk for KS, slight risk for OK. Could this be the June MCS we've been waiting for the last few years? We're about to find out


I never expected this either! :eek:

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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