Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Brent
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1441 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Sever Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, the hazards are 60 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized hail


What a way to end this boring hot month

Also glad to see the hi res models were wrong about it splitting around the metro
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1442 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:22 pm

Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Sever Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, the hazards are 60 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized hail


What a way to end this boring hot month

Also glad to see the hi res models were wrong about it splitting around the metro

Enjoy that severe warning :lol:

Missed out on the heavy stuff here but I'm fine with that since I have to walk out there
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1443 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:24 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Brent wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Sever Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, the hazards are 60 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized hail


What a way to end this boring hot month

Also glad to see the hi res models were wrong about it splitting around the metro

Enjoy that severe warning :lol:

Missed out on the heavy stuff here but I'm fine with that since I have to walk out there


Perfect timing with the state fair downtown which opened at noon :lol: :lol:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1444 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:28 pm

"Considerable" Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tulsa, now 70 mph wind gusts & Penny Sized Hail
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1445 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:30 pm

Well well well, look what we have here :lol:
Image

Certainly could be an interesting week next week, of course it's a week out so it could totally change. Models usually move the trough through too quickly so we would likely be looking at 10/13 as the target date for now, which could obviously change as we get closer.

The last few years have produced some solid late-season Oct/Nov events in the plains. Let's see if this is another one.

This likely won't be anything huge, but for Oct standards this could be solid.

EDIT: That is one heck of a dryline
Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1446 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:25 am

Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk :double:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1447 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:31 am

Weather Dude wrote:Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk :double:



And Day 5 as well! :eek:

Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1448 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:35 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk :double:



And Day 5 as well! :eek:

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/day5prob.gif

Yeah I'm heading home this weekend and I'll be driving back Sunday evening (it's only 2.5 hours) so hopefully I won't have to drive through anything nasty. But then again if I do, I could chase it, unless it's dark :lol:
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1449 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:40 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Uuuhhh... Day 7 slight risk :double:



And Day 5 as well! :eek:

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/day5prob.gif

Yeah I'm heading home this weekend and I'll be driving back Sunday evening (it's only 2.5 hours) so hopefully I won't have to drive through anything nasty. But then again if I do, I could chase it, unless it's dark :lol:


Perhaps you can chase it on the way home? :lol:
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1450 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:58 am

That is one heck of a trough on the 12z GFS my goodness...

I'm a little skeptical since it's Oct and not May and the last Day 7 slight risk we had here back in April looked like a huge event at first but the models backed off as it got closer. If the models keep showing this though then I'll get more excited
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1451 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:35 pm

Lucky y’all. I’m over here getting a light drizzle all the time.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1452 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:01 pm

I found this 12z GFS sounding for Next Wednesday's setup near Tecumseh, OK


Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1453 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:05 pm

I'm wondering if the potential EPAC hurricane could feed extra moisture into this potential setup. The GFS shows this possibility and gets the dew points in the 70 range in some areas on Tuesday.

Also we might be able to thank Typhoon Mindulle for playing a part in this potentially active severe weather period.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1454 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:53 pm

The 12z Euro model is later (Thursday), but that dry line . . .

Image
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1455 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:30 pm

Although Tuesday looks like it could be the big one (as of right now), don't sleep on Sunday's event. Models have uptrended today, showing better moisture. Could be a close call as to whether that moisture ends up getting here in time, but if it does, Sunday could get interesting.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1456 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:02 am

Looks to me like Sunday will be a tail-end charley event for the dfw area and the main event in Oklahoma. If that euro is right then Sunday is definitely just the warmup. 70 dewpoints along i35 up to Ardmore, yikes…
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1457 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:19 am

Enhanced Risk for Sunday, my Aunt lives in the Enhanced risk zone in Ada, OK

Image

Still a broad Slight for Next Tuesday

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1458 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:32 am

Sunday is starting to look pretty big time, especially for the enhanced risk area. Wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk at some point, especially if the moisture ends up getting there earlier than currently shown.

I'm a little iffy about Tuesday, especially since the Euro shows the trough moving through slower than the GFS. If the GFS verifies, then it could be a big event. If the Euro verifies, it would likely be an overnight slop fest with a threat for severe weather further east on Wednesday. And considering the troughs almost always come through slower than forecast, I'm unfortunately gonna have to lean towards the Euro for now. Maybe it will change we'll see still a long ways out.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1459 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:19 am

12km nam is a lot further south than the gfs, with the low near the red river. Granted this is just barely in range of the model, so I expect it to correct in future runs.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1460 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:42 pm

12z Euro gets the severe threat on Sunday a little farther north and west than the GFS does. It also favors Wednesday further east instead of Tuesday for the second event.

12z GFS still has a big one for Tuesday.
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