Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1501 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:54 am

Very broad Enhanced risk for Sunday.

Image

This is a May-Like Setup from Northern Texas to Southern Nebraska, a very broad Slight Risk, an Enhanced risk may be needed in the next couple days given the model trends.

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1502 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:44 pm

I skimmed through the SPC archive and found that up until 10/10, there had not been a moderate risk in Oct anywhere in the US since 2014. We have had 2 already this month, with potential for 2 more in the next several days. Unreal

Really shows how crazy this month has been
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1503 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:59 am

10 hatched tor risk up for day 2, mostly over MO. Probably a good chance this goes moderate at some point, but they'll probably wait until the day of to make that call.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1504 Postby FormerNewtotex » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:41 am

I'm curious what the Fall severe weather season is going to hold since it's already this active in October, usually things don't ramp up until November & December, especially in the Southeast/Dixie Alley when they have their secondary tornado season.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1505 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:46 pm

Strongly concerned with the Dewpoints right now, they're already at the Low to Mid 60s right now in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma (Basically I-35 & East of it, even though that some Observations has Mid-60s Dewpoints elsewhere like Enid)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1506 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:08 pm

Today's event is well underway now, with multiple tornado watches up and a few confirmed tornadoes already. It appears Purdin, MO has taken a direct hit from a powerful tornado.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1507 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:11 pm

Tornado on the ground near Sedalia, MO, they got lucky.


Another Tornado on the Ground SW of Kirksville, I know a relative living in Kirksville
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1508 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:38 pm

Never thought I would say this anytime soon but whats happening in MO right now looks like 4/12. Both PDS warned with huge debris ball. That's up there with craziest couplets I've seen.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1509 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:47 pm

Oh great now there's a third big couplet following the other 2. Wow
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1510 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:06 pm

Fredericktown and Junction City just took a big hit. Next town up is Perryville. They took a huge hit from an EF4 a few years ago so that would not be good if they get another strong one.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1511 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:14 pm

This outbreak is right up there with 3/25 for the event of the year in terms of intensity IMO. Seems like every tornado touching down is strong and plows into a town, similar to that event. Tragic.

EDIT: TOR-E for the town of Chester. Just got obliterated
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1512 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:29 am

Enhanced risk in place AGAIN for from Kansas to Texas, it's May all over again.

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1513 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:38 am

Based on the latest model runs and 1630z SPC disco, today doesn't really look very impressive. They have trimmed the enhanced risk down and removed the hatched area for wind, and most of the model runs really don't even have much getting going at all in the enhanced risk, besides a line that develops and moves through central OK late tonight before quickly weakening as it moves east.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1514 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:30 pm

Instability increasing in SW Oklahoma with clearing & daytime heating, CAPE is over 2000 & Dewpoints are in the mid-60s
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1515 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:27 pm

Turns out the HRRR has absolutely whiffed on moisture return today. Could get more serious than what the models are showing. I'm more concerned now than I was this morning.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1516 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:51 am

Welp. Just had a tornado warning here and that was a close call it may have passed right over right before the sirens went off. Might be on the ground now right by the radar
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1517 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 27, 2021 1:09 am

A bunch of inflow notches on this line. Might need a warning soon for Shawnee
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1518 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:04 am

PDS Tornado warning near Orange, TX, crossing over into Louisiana
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1519 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:07 am

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1520 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:19 am

Marginal risk for most of Oklahoma Wednesday.

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/day3otlk_0830.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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