STORM2K

Potential tornado north of Statesboro GA. South East GA

Downgraded to marginal. It's a mess down there. I will be surprised if anything forms from those

Now that the end to this brutal cold weather here in the Southern Plains is in sight (finally!), it's time to start thinking more about the upcoming severe weather season. I have seen a lot of people comparing this year to years like 2011 and 1974, and saying that this year is going to be huge for tornadoes (which I get it, I mean, both of those years show up in the top analogues) but I'm not sold on a huge year just yet (I know I'm probably in the minority here). I posted the following on another forum and thought I would post it here as well:

I've never been on the 2011 hype train so far and I have no plans to ever get on it. Same with the 1974 train... Sure, there are some big years in the analogues. But I really don't think this season is going to be as active as many people have been saying it will be. I think Dixie alley could have a big year, but I think 2021 is going to be another disappointment for storm trackers/chasers for the Plains. I don't think it's going to be another 2018/2020 year where there pretty much is nothing the whole year, but I also don't think its going to be continuous outbreaks like 1974, 2008, 2011, etc. That being said however, I do think there will be at least one big Plains setup this year, but overall I think this year will be another below average year for the Plains. I could see a 2012-like year, with one big outbreak day (4/14/12), with a few smaller set ups, and not much else.

Also, to touch on the drought in the SW... I've seen a few comparisons that mention that 2011 also had a severe drought in the SW (which it did). However, it was nowhere near what we are seeing now.

Here is the drought monitor from my birthday in 2011...



And here is the current drought monitor:



Not even close... More drought=bigger cap=less storms.

This is mainly based on a gut feeling so there is a good chance I'll be totally wrong lol

I'll come back to this post at the end of spring and see how wrong I was

Yeah the plains are hostile right now to twisters but the dixie/tennessee alley...

Storm Season 2021 Forecast from Direct Weather





Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc

Iceresistance wrote:Storm Season 2021 Forecast from Direct Weather


https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-20-at-3.48.59-PM.png


Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1oQWu1Jpzc

Sorry but I don't pay any attention to that guy whatsoever... He just hypes up everything way too much. I wouldn't pay attention to anything he says because it's most likely way over the top. I'm not trying to sound rude, but it's hard to listen to that kind of stuff

Marginal Risk in NE North Carolina & SE Virginia today for 60 mph wind gusts

March 6 is looking pretty strong with the potential Vorticity there quite high. Still a ways out however.

Potental Storm in Early March that could bring very heavy rain & severe weather across the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley

(NOTE: Several days out, this will change!)



CAPE Levels look to be on the low-end except the Southern Half of Texas . . .

Iceresistance wrote:Potental Storm in Early March that could bring very heavy rain & severe weather across the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley

(NOTE: Several days out, this will change!)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh204-312.gif

CAPE Levels look to be on the low-end except the Southern Half of Texas . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021022212.sbcape.us_sc.gif

No need to focus on cape at this point. Timing and setup on 500mb heights and winds are best for the next week or so.

If you want to preliminarily dig a bit deeper, look for the “ski jump” on 500 mb winds, as Reed Timmer calls it. This refers to the jet streak that wraps around the trough from west, down south, and then out east. Shear profiles would be maximized right at the end of the “jump”, or left-exit region.

Good video if you have the time to spare:
https://tvnweather.com/podcasts/24

cheezyWXguy wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:Potental Storm in Early March that could bring very heavy rain & severe weather across the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley

(NOTE: Several days out, this will change!)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh204-312.gif

CAPE Levels look to be on the low-end except the Southern Half of Texas . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021022212.sbcape.us_sc.gif

No need to focus on cape at this point. Timing and setup on 500mb heights and winds are best for the next week or so.

If you want to preliminarily dig a bit deeper, look for the “ski jump” on 500 mb winds, as Reed Timmer calls it. This refers to the jet streak that wraps around the trough from west, down south, and then out east. Shear profiles would be maximized right at the end of the “jump”, or left-exit region.

Good video if you have the time to spare:
https://tvnweather.com/podcasts/24

500 MB Bulk Shear



Z500 Vort, that bowling ball is coming ever so slowly . . . (Storm #2)

18z GFS is really showing an active pattern across the Southern Half of the CONUS . . .

(Also note the SE Ridge building . . . )

I kinda feel like if that pattern the last few GFS runs have been showing verifies, there's not going to be a whole lot of widespread severe weather as it seems like those systems are coming through awfully close to each other, which should limit moisture return. However, it could lead to some small-scale events, which can still be potent, as we've already seen a couple of times this year.

Anyway, 2/28 is a day to watch for that first system coming through. SPC has been mentioning that period for the past couple of days so it will be interesting reading their thoughts on it over the next few days. Still nearly a week out, so pretty much anything is possible at this point.

 https://twitter.com/StormgasmJim/status/1364266636719644678

Weather Dude wrote:I kinda feel like if that pattern the last few GFS runs have been showing verifies, there's not going to be a whole lot of widespread severe weather as it seems like those systems are coming through awfully close to each other, which should limit moisture return. However, it could lead to some small-scale events, which can still be potent, as we've already seen a couple of times this year.

Anyway, 2/28 is a day to watch for that first system coming through. SPC has been mentioning that period for the past couple of days so it will be interesting reading their thoughts on it over the next few days. Still nearly a week out, so pretty much anything is possible at this point.

Good point, the overly progressive pattern could put a damper on things. The GFS has really fallen out of consistency the last couple runs though, so I’m not really sure what to expect at this point.

Marginal risk is up for Friday. Hail is the main threat.


Also a side note, the SPC has introduced a new probabilistic extended fire outlook today, should be interesting for fire season down the road.

Updated to now include SE Oklahoma, bigger than it was shown this morning . . .

Quarter Sized (Maybe a Half Dollar Size) hail is expected.

Good evening,

I'm just getting back in to Storm spotting after family and kids giving me a three year break. Could anyone share the best web sites for Severe weather storms as far as MODELS, RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC...everything I would need for Tornado season please. Thank you so much!

Brandon8181 wrote:Good evening,

I'm just getting back in to Storm spotting after family and kids giving me a three year break. Could anyone share the best web sites for Severe weather storms as far as MODELS, RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC...everything I would need for Tornado season please. Thank you so much!

Models:

Radar:

Satellite:

(And either way, Welcome Back! )

Iceresistance wrote:

Brandon8181 wrote:Good evening,

I'm just getting back in to Storm spotting after family and kids giving me a three year break. Could anyone share the best web sites for Severe weather storms as far as MODELS, RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC...everything I would need for Tornado season please. Thank you so much!

Models:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Radar:

https://www.news9.com/national-radar
(You can put in your own location & it will keep it for you.)

Satellite:

https://www.windy.com/
(To find the Satellite on Windy: Radar & Satellite Satellite)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://zoom.earth/ (NOTE: Can be up to 30 minutes behind, but very useful for close-up imagery)

(And either way, Welcome Back! )

I really like that Windy website!

Man, thank you so much. I am SO excited. I haven't went all out like this in a long time. I'm working on putting together my chase vehicle... you would like it! More to follow.................