STORM2K

Very broad Enhanced risk for Sunday.



This is a May-Like Setup from Northern Texas to Southern Nebraska, a very broad Slight Risk, an Enhanced risk may be needed in the next couple days given the model trends.

I skimmed through the SPC archive and found that up until 10/10, there had not been a moderate risk in Oct anywhere in the US since 2014. We have had 2 already this month, with potential for 2 more in the next several days. Unreal

Really shows how crazy this month has been

10 hatched tor risk up for day 2, mostly over MO. Probably a good chance this goes moderate at some point, but they'll probably wait until the day of to make that call.

I'm curious what the Fall severe weather season is going to hold since it's already this active in October, usually things don't ramp up until November & December, especially in the Southeast/Dixie Alley when they have their secondary tornado season.

Strongly concerned with the Dewpoints right now, they're already at the Low to Mid 60s right now in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma (Basically I-35 & East of it, even though that some Observations has Mid-60s Dewpoints elsewhere like Enid)

Today's event is well underway now, with multiple tornado watches up and a few confirmed tornadoes already. It appears Purdin, MO has taken a direct hit from a powerful tornado.

Tornado on the ground near Sedalia, MO, they got lucky.


Another Tornado on the Ground SW of Kirksville, I know a relative living in Kirksville

Never thought I would say this anytime soon but whats happening in MO right now looks like 4/12. Both PDS warned with huge debris ball. That's up there with craziest couplets I've seen.

Oh great now there's a third big couplet following the other 2. Wow

Fredericktown and Junction City just took a big hit. Next town up is Perryville. They took a huge hit from an EF4 a few years ago so that would not be good if they get another strong one.

This outbreak is right up there with 3/25 for the event of the year in terms of intensity IMO. Seems like every tornado touching down is strong and plows into a town, similar to that event. Tragic.

EDIT: TOR-E for the town of Chester. Just got obliterated

Enhanced risk in place AGAIN for from Kansas to Texas, it's May all over again.

Based on the latest model runs and 1630z SPC disco, today doesn't really look very impressive. They have trimmed the enhanced risk down and removed the hatched area for wind, and most of the model runs really don't even have much getting going at all in the enhanced risk, besides a line that develops and moves through central OK late tonight before quickly weakening as it moves east.

Instability increasing in SW Oklahoma with clearing & daytime heating, CAPE is over 2000 & Dewpoints are in the mid-60s

Turns out the HRRR has absolutely whiffed on moisture return today. Could get more serious than what the models are showing. I'm more concerned now than I was this morning.

Welp. Just had a tornado warning here and that was a close call it may have passed right over right before the sirens went off. Might be on the ground now right by the radar

A bunch of inflow notches on this line. Might need a warning soon for Shawnee

PDS Tornado warning near Orange, TX, crossing over into Louisiana

Look at these, happened in Orange, TX this morning:  https://twitter.com/12NewsNow/status/1453382563960168459




 https://twitter.com/p_orchardwxguy/status/1453383985933996045

Marginal risk for most of Oklahoma Wednesday.


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