STORM2K

First storm passing through & IT WAS CRAZY!

4 close Lightning Strikes, including 1 just to the North!

https://twitter.com/stormgasmjim/status ... 00032?s=21

“MJO progressing to w. Pacific w/ +AAM favors temporary Nino like response & western U.S. ridge next 10-15 days (unfavorable severe storm pattern). But -- east propagating mode suggests return of MJO phases 4-5-6 by mid May maybe sooner & active severe storm pattern over Plains...“

I don't know a whole lot about how each MJO phase affects severe weather, but I do know that phase 2 is the most favorable, followed by 1 and 8. Pretty much all the MJO models have it moving into phase 8 by the end of the month. Also, early indications are that Surigae will recurve, although that's not 100% certain at this point. I also don't know a whole lot about how WPAC systems affect severe weather over here but I know they can. It will be interesting to see if these things will line up with each other.

I have seen some talk on social media about a potential early May 1999-like pattern setting up at the end of April and into early May (certainly not the year you wanna see pop up if you're in the plains, no matter how much you like storms). Now obviously no two years are alike, so it's not like we're going to see an outbreak of that magnitude, but there are some similarities that are quite interesting. First one is the MJO. Like I mentioned, the models all seems to agree that it's going to move into phase 8 by late April. The early May 1999 pattern I believe was also during phase 8. The second one is tropical activity in the WPAC. Since we are currently tracking a WPAC system right now, I decided to see if 1999 happened to have a recurving TC in the WPAC that may have influenced severe weather in the US. Turns out it did. Typhoon Kate formed on 4/21, peaked as a Cat 1, and became extratropical on 4/28. Again, I'm not an expert on this, but I would guess that Kate had at least some influence in the destructive early May 1999 pattern.

Again, I am in no way expecting anything like the impacts the events of early May 1999 (especially 5/3) to happen this year, but the pattern could become favorable for some well-organized events. I just find it interesting that this upcoming period *could* feature a pattern with some similarities to the early May 1999 pattern. Also this is still way far out so many things could change. Either way, I have a hunch that the late April/early May period is going to be quite active for severe weather...

As for the latest model runs, the 0z GFS shows a possible uptick in severe potential towards the end of the run. However, it also has snow reaching the OK/KS border next week, when our current forecast highs are in the 60s/70s for that day, so I'm not trusting this run. The 12z Euro from earlier showed a potential trough coming in at the end of the run. The 0z is running now but I'm not going to stay up for the full run.

So even though all but 2 days in April so far have had nothing, I'm thinking that will change big time in the coming weeks. Looks like we gotta enjoy the lull while we can...

First proper observation at my house since February 2021 Polar Vortex & Winter Storms

7:00 AM
Temperature: 49°F
Wind: NE at 10 mph
24-hour Rainfall: 1.00 inch
Current Conditions: Cloudy

April better post up. We need an Outbreak! (only if no damage deaths or injuries occur of course)

InfernoFlameCat wrote:April better post up. We need an Outbreak! (only if no damage deaths or injuries occur of course)

We just had a massive hail and wind outbreak like we haven't seen in years. Some places in the deep south saw their largest hail storms ever. With how crazy March was with tornadoes, I think we can handle a slow down on severe weather. Not to mention that signs are pointing at a sharp increase for severe weather towards the end of the month into May so you will probably get your tornadoes. Let's just hope they don't come at the cost of peoples lives and livelihoods.

TheProfessor wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:April better post up. We need an Outbreak! (only if no damage deaths or injuries occur of course)

We just had a massive hail and wind outbreak like we haven't seen in years. Some places in the deep south saw their largest hail storms ever. With how crazy March was with tornadoes, I think we can handle a slow down on severe weather. Not to mention that signs are pointing at a sharp increase for severe weather towards the end of the month into May so you will probably get your tornadoes. Let's just hope they don't come at the cost of peoples lives and livelihoods.

There was up to Grapefruit sized hail near Voca, TX on 4/12/2021

Well as of today it has now officially been 9 years since our last high risk here in NE OK...

CFSv2 & GFS calling for some severe weather activity across the Southern Plains towards the end of this month . . .

Yeah it does in fact look pretty good. What MJO phase will this be in?

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah it does in fact look pretty good. What MJO phase will this be in?

Models have it moving into phase 8 by the end of the month. There have certainly been some major events during MJO phase 8

So I've been doing a bit of research to see what MJO phase past plains outbreaks were in. I already knew that phases 8,1,2 are the most favorable, but I wanted to see if any major events were outside of those. I've listed some of the bigger events here:
4/26/91-Phase 5
5/3/99-Phase 8
May 2003 sequence- Phases 3-6 (this one surprised me)
5/29/04- Phase 2 (didn't reach its full potential but was
still a big setup)
5/4-5/07- Neutral, but leaning towards Phases 4/5
5/10/10-Phase 4
5/24/11-Neutral, pretty close to center of circle
4/14/12-Phase 2
5/20/13-Neutral, but leaning towards the Phases 8/1 side
5/31/13-Phase 1
6/16/14-Phase 4
4/26/16-Inside circle, but close to Phase 8 (The tornado threat busted for this event but the wind threat didn't. Included it as the overall setup supported a big event)
5/9/16- Phase 2
5/18/17-Neutral (Underperformance)
Interestingly, May 2018 actually featured a favorable MJO, despite the inactivity. Goes to show why there's a lot more involved.
First part of May 2019 outbreak sequence was Phase 8, the last few days were Phase 1.

There's a lot more that I didn't include. Overall it looks to me like Phases 6 and 7 are the least favorable, while 8,1, and 2 are the most favorable, but big events can still happen in 3 and 4 as well.

We are currently sitting in Phase 7 right now, so the current lull makes sense.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:April better post up. We need an Outbreak! (only if no damage deaths or injuries occur of course)

Unfortunately I don't really think that's possible

Slight risk in SW Central Texas today

Main threat is up to Tennis ball/Baseball sized hail . . .

That looks like an Isolated Supercell type risk.

There is ALREADY a Thunderstorm Watch in SW Texas with severe storms!

Slight risk got WAY bigger . . .

Bold prediction time: The biggest southern and central Plains outbreak of the year will happen between 4/25 and 5/10...

Baseball sized hail reported in Bertram, TX

April 24 looks like a brutal outbreak. There is a negative tilt on the trough and decent dew points. To add on to that there is a massive temperature contrast on the front. This could be big.