STORM2K

4/22 looks like a day to watch for the plains. Moisture will likely be a problem so it won't be a huge event but there could be something. Also, I know it's fantasy range but the end of that GFS run is very interesting for early May...

Time to see what the 0z GFS has for us... the 18z looked very interesting for the plains in the 4/30-5/3 range. Let's see if that continues. (It's fantasy range so a lot will change)

Well hello there 4/26




Further south for 4/27



Geez 4/29... Getting into the fantasy portion of the run now but dang...



Wow what a run. I won't post any maps for 4/30 onward at this point as it's so far out but pretty much every day starting 4/26 has potential. That should line up with the MJO moving into Phase 8. Signs of the pattern change coming... Buckle up folks

Setting a target date for 4/27 in the plains. Not saying it's going to be that exact date, but it looks like there might be something around that time frame. Also watching the 4/23-25 range for some possible dixie alley action...

Target date stands, for now at least...

We need some action

Severe weather potential in Southern to Northern Texas & the Southern Half of Oklahoma this Friday . . .

Iceresistance here comes your storms. Hopefully you don't get a dry slot again.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Iceresistance here comes your storms. Hopefully you don't get a dry slot again.

Well, I got hammered by 2 storms a couple weeks ago, the first one had up to Quarter sized hail for 10 minutes & the other storm had Nickel sized hail for around 3 minutes . . .

GFS doesn't like 4/23 very much, but Euro and SPC do. I'm siding with the Euro and SPC for right now, but we'll know more in a few days when the CAMs get in range.

It's worth noting that both models have been consistent on a potential setup early next week that could be significant.

A couple of big severe weather anniversaries coming up around that time. Monday will be 30 years since 4/26/91 and Tuesday is obviously 10 years since the super outbreak

I found this uncontaminated sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +195 hours

This may be in the Fantasy range of the GFS model, but this setup is dangerously similar to the May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma, ON MAY 3RD!

Iceresistance wrote:This may be in the Fantasy range of the GFS model, but this setup is dangerously similar to the May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma, ON MAY 3RD!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/2021041918_GFS_342_35.24-96.97_severe_ml.png

That's so far out there it'll be gone next run. I'm more concerned with the potential setup early next week for now. It's a ways out too, but the models have been pretty consistent so far...

In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow

Brent wrote:In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow

Maybe if I just ignore it it'll go away

0z GFS might be caving to the Euro. This run shows a bit more potential for Friday than previous runs.

Weather Dude wrote:

Brent wrote:In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow

Maybe if I just ignore it it'll go away

at least it'll be quick 40s by afternoon lol

Friday looks very potent in the Southern Plains, spreads over into Dixie Alley Saturday . . .

I like this something is brewing amongst mother nature.

So we have a day 4 slight, a Day 5 slight, and SPC says we may have a day 7 (!) slight on tomorrow's outlook... Welcome to spring