Texas Spring 2021

[Iceresistance]

More severe weather expected in North-Central Texas into Oklahoma & Southern Kansas next Tuesday (7 days out)

[InfernoFlameCat]

DFW airport hit a record low of 37F this morning beating out 39F back in 1918.

Is this like a mild spring version of whatever polar freak storm occurred in February?

[Iceresistance]

DFW airport hit a record low of 37F this morning beating out 39F back in 1918.

Is this like a mild spring version of whatever polar freak storm occurred in February?

Yes, got down to 30°F this morning . . .

[Iceresistance]

More severe weather expected in North-Central Texas into Oklahoma & Southern Kansas next Tuesday (7 days out)

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif

Forgot to mention that the setup is looking crazy, especially in Oklahoma

High CAPE
Very strong Jet Stream
Very deep, rich Low-Level Moisture
Strong Cap (Only allows the strongest Supercells to form)
Triple Point appears to be likely in West-Central Oklahoma

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yum. Those will be some nice looking supercells that spin up. They look alot neater than Dixie supercells.

[WacoWx]

Reed Timmer thinks Friday in eastern and NE Texas will be where a biggest threat for tornados will be, near and after sunset. The dryline threat will have a tornadic threat as well, but not as dangerous as the east/NE Texas supercells.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Reed Timmer thinks Friday in eastern and NE Texas will be where a biggest threat for tornados will be, near and after sunset. The dryline threat will have a tornadic threat as well, but not as dangerous as the east/NE Texas supercells.

Yeah because the storms farther west will be more elevated because of a lack of moisture. Some large hail there likely though and very beautiful LP supercells.

[WacoWx]

I'm thinking that the view off to the east after the dryline passes will be an electric one.

[jasons2k]

The temperature was a chilly 45 degrees here this morning. Too cold for late April.

No complaining this summer that Texas never has a spring, or that we go straight from winter to summer. Not this year at least.

Most of the severe action on Friday looks to be north of here, which is typical. I'm watching Friday's system and also the one setting-up for next week. It's that time of year...

[TarrantWx]

Reed Timmer thinks Friday in eastern and NE Texas will be where a biggest threat for tornados will be, near and after sunset. The dryline threat will have a tornadic threat as well, but not as dangerous as the east/NE Texas supercells.

Yeah because the storms farther west will be more elevated because of a lack of moisture. Some large hail there likely though and very beautiful LP supercells.

I don't think that moisture will be the issue. The NAM is showing a very sharp dryline with dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 ahead of it with surface-based CAPE values of 3,000-3,500. The bigger threat for tornadoes would be further East after sunset because that's when the LLJ will crank up increasing helicity values. Forecast soundings in the DFW area also have quite a bit of veer, back, veer. That being said, any mesoscale boundaries would need to be watched for locally enhanced helicity.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Reed Timmer thinks Friday in eastern and NE Texas will be where a biggest threat for tornados will be, near and after sunset. The dryline threat will have a tornadic threat as well, but not as dangerous as the east/NE Texas supercells.

DFW safe?-

Personally worried about my parents who moved to their retirement RV up in Ardmore-thinking I should go up and help them move stuff around and prep for the coming week or 2. Thoughts?

[Iceresistance]

Slight Risk still very broad for most of Texas . . .


Up to Baseball sized hail not out of the question . . .


The tornado threat is also higher in Eastern & Northern Texas

[Iceresistance]

Northern & Central Texas is expecting severe storms next Tuesday . . .

[Iceresistance]

Latest 9z SREF model run may warrant a Enhanced risk in SE Texas Tomorrow . . .

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening over much of eastern TX.

Surface high pressure is shifting eastward this morning allowing onshore flow to commence over SE TX and this will increase today allowing a quick return of Gulf moisture ahead of an approaching storm system that will move out of the southern Rockies tonight into Friday. Surface low pressure will develop over the TX/OK panhandles on Friday and move ENE with a strong dryline developing across central TX. Parameters during the day…especially the afternoon and evening become increasingly favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms over SE TX with increasing divergence aloft, increasing low level jet, steepening mid level lapse rates, and large scale lift. One question remains and has plagued the area for much of the spring is the intensity of the mid level cap and if this feature will preclude storms from developing as has been the case several times this spring. Capping appears strongest near the coast and these areas could remain capped through the entire event with areas north of I-10 likely having the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms.

As for the severe threat, several parameters are in place for severe thunderstorms to develop with all severe modes in play (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Think the large hail threat will be most likely along the dryline and generally to the west of our area where discrete supercells will develop by mid to late afternoon Friday…some of this activity will likely make it eastward into our western counties where a very large hail threat will exist. By evening expect storms to transition more toward lines and segments with the hail threat becoming more a damaging wind potential. While the tornado threat is low it is not zero and there is decent turning in the low level wind profiles, but the expectations that storms will become more linear with time generally reduces the overall tornado threat.

[Iceresistance]

From Jeff Lindner:

There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening over much of eastern TX.

Surface high pressure is shifting eastward this morning allowing onshore flow to commence over SE TX and this will increase today allowing a quick return of Gulf moisture ahead of an approaching storm system that will move out of the southern Rockies tonight into Friday. Surface low pressure will develop over the TX/OK panhandles on Friday and move ENE with a strong dryline developing across central TX. Parameters during the day…especially the afternoon and evening become increasingly favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms over SE TX with increasing divergence aloft, increasing low level jet, steepening mid level lapse rates, and large scale lift. One question remains and has plagued the area for much of the spring is the intensity of the mid level cap and if this feature will preclude storms from developing as has been the case several times this spring. Capping appears strongest near the coast and these areas could remain capped through the entire event with areas north of I-10 likely having the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms.

As for the severe threat, several parameters are in place for severe thunderstorms to develop with all severe modes in play (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Think the large hail threat will be most likely along the dryline and generally to the west of our area where discrete supercells will develop by mid to late afternoon Friday…some of this activity will likely make it eastward into our western counties where a very large hail threat will exist. By evening expect storms to transition more toward lines and segments with the hail threat becoming more a damaging wind potential. While the tornado threat is low it is not zero and there is decent turning in the low level wind profiles, but the expectations that storms will become more linear with time generally reduces the overall tornado threat.

Yeah, I'm closer to the Triple Point . . .

The SPC has this on why the Slight Risk is very broad right now, but what may happen if any storms should fire up in the risk zone . . .

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how much convection will
develop along the dryline in central TX/southwestern OK through
Friday afternoon. Most guidance suggests the possibility of a
bimodal distribution of storms across the southern Plains, with the
triple point in southwestern OK late Friday afternoon and a
low-level warm advection regime in east/coastal TX through the
daytime hours being favored zones of initiation. Still, there
appears to be at least some chance for additional robust
thunderstorm development posing mainly an isolated large to very
large hail threat farther west along the dryline by peak afternoon
heating, as modest large-scale ascent with the upper trough
overspreads the southern Plains. Based on latest guidance being in
better agreement on the placement/eastward extent of the dryline,
severe probabilities have been adjusted slightly eastward in central
TX.

Any thunderstorms that form near the triple point in southwestern OK
will likely become severe supercells quickly. The main threat
initially should be large to perhaps very large (2+ inch diameter)
hail given steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, sufficient
low-level moisture and diurnal heating to support 1500-2500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt. By early Friday
evening, a modest strengthening of the low-level flow and gradually
increasing low-level moisture may support an isolated tornado threat
with any storms that can remain discrete. Although details remain
unclear, there also appears to be some potential for upscale growth
into a line or bow Friday evening/night as the cold front advances
southeastward. Damaging winds would become a greater risk across
parts of central OK into north TX if this upscale growth occurrs.

[jasons2k]

Latest 9z SREF model run may warrant a Enhanced risk in SE Texas Tomorrow . . .

With that tilt I’d say so...

[bubba hotep]

Still more questions than answers for tomorrow. Maybe the 00z CAMs will clear things up.

[Iceresistance]

Still more questions than answers for tomorrow. Maybe the 00z CAMs will clear things up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EznB-aQUcAIUgNn?format=jpg&name=small

The Model Uncertainty is too high right now, maybe the Midnight Model runs may clear things up as well . . .

(Don't forget the HRRR!)

[Iceresistance]

400 Posts!

Enhanced risk in Eastern Texas, Central & Southern Oklahoma for wind . . .