Texas Spring 2021

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#901 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon May 31, 2021 10:52 am

Over an inch and still going. It will be a problem if areas get 2 plus tonight.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#902 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Mon May 31, 2021 11:01 am

bubba hotep wrote:IIRC, that deep S. Texas MCS wasn't well forecasted? It probably knocked out the last of the drought down there.

https://i.ibb.co/x3YXhLW/Drought.png

Then the pattern looks to stay wet during the 1st half of June. At some point we might have to start considering that a below normal temp and above normal precipitation summer might be in the cards for Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/vVMVG21/Wet-Outlook.png


I think the time for considering is about over now for the majority of June. The question is how long will this pattern continue this summer? June can often be quite wet. When June is wet, usually July features at least average temperatures and precipitation. Another thing to consider is even if the temperatures are below normal, heat index values will be above normal due to higher humidity. I would still rather have higher heat index values than drought.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#903 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 11:12 am

Areas of Eastern NM have picked up over 4" of rain!

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#904 Postby Cpv17 » Mon May 31, 2021 11:34 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:IIRC, that deep S. Texas MCS wasn't well forecasted? It probably knocked out the last of the drought down there.

https://i.ibb.co/x3YXhLW/Drought.png

Then the pattern looks to stay wet during the 1st half of June. At some point we might have to start considering that a below normal temp and above normal precipitation summer might be in the cards for Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/vVMVG21/Wet-Outlook.png


I think the time for considering is about over now for the majority of June. The question is how long will this pattern continue this summer? June can often be quite wet. When June is wet, usually July features at least average temperatures and precipitation. Another thing to consider is even if the temperatures are below normal, heat index values will be above normal due to higher humidity. I would still rather have higher heat index values than drought.


The latest Euro shows about 10” in your area.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#905 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 12:40 pm

Big watch out for portions of West Texas and New Mexico

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#906 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 1:38 pm

Image


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 PM EDT Mon May 31 2021

Areas affected...West Texas through North-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311750Z - 312300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
train along a slow moving cold front. Rainfall rates in excess of
2"/hr are likely, and an additional 1-3" of rainfall with locally
higher amounts, is forecast on top of pre-saturated soils. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts
widespread showers and thunderstorms along a cold front draped
from near Odessa to Abilene, generally along I-20. This convection
has produced 1-3" of rainfall already this morning with locally
higher amounts due to training of echoes along the front, and
flash flooding is ongoing across the area. GPS observations of PW
were as high as 1.6" in the pre-convective environment, with
MLCape south of the front analyzed by the RAP at above 1000 J/kg.
Moist low-level flow out of the south was observed by KSJT VWP to
be 20kts lifting orthogonally into the front, producing locally
enhanced ascent to persist this convection.

As the front sags southward, it will encounter even greater
instability with SBCape potentially exceeding 2000 J/kg and PWs
above 1.75", well above the 90th percentile for the date. These
extremely favorable thermodynamics will support continued
thunderstorm development, with organization likely as 0-6km bulk
shear rises above 35 kts. Additionally, cellular development
within the warm and unstable airmass south of the front should
lift N/NE on 850-300mb mean winds of 20-30 kts to merge with the
MCS, and cause briefly even higher rain rates. It is possible that
as the instability increases the MCS may begin to forward
propagate to the southeast more quickly than it has so far today.
Should this occur it would lower the flash flood potential, and
HREF exceedance probabilities for 3-hrs do fall to around 30% this
afternoon. However, with Corfidi vectors still aligned to the
boundary, there is likely to be regeneration into the better
instability SW of the front with training occurring to the east
which would continue the risk.

Morning high-res guidance differs in the evolution and spatial
extent of the heaviest rainfall. Despite some latitudinal
variation in the placement, the HREF blended mean and neighborhood
probabilities have increased with the 12Z run. This combined with
observational trends in radar and satellite imply a continued
threat for heavy rainfall with flash flooding as HREF forecast
rain rates of more than 2"/hr are likely, with training along the
front expected. This could produce an additional 1-3" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts, and with FFG locally as low as
2"/3hrs, flash flooding will remain possible.

Weiss

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#907 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 2:25 pm

It looks like this might be another swing and miss Flash Flood watch for DFW (which is a good string of luck). Things look to be trending towards a MCS forming and then surging SE and missing DFW this afternoon.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#908 Postby starsfan65 » Mon May 31, 2021 3:03 pm

bubba hotep wrote:It looks like this might be another swing and miss Flash Flood watch for DFW (which is a good string of luck). Things look to be trending towards a MCS forming and then surging SE and missing DFW this afternoon.
I don't think it will be a swing and miss.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#909 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon May 31, 2021 3:17 pm

Hey everyone, just a reminder that meteorological summer starts tomorrow. Hopefully this summer will be cooler and wetter than normal! :D

After tonight, we’ll move over to the Texas Summer 2021 thread at http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=121841.

See you in the Texas Summer 2021 thread - next up is fall and then winter!!!
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#910 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 3:24 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:It looks like this might be another swing and miss Flash Flood watch for DFW (which is a good string of luck). Things look to be trending towards a MCS forming and then surging SE and missing DFW this afternoon.
I don't think it will be a swing and miss.


Latest HRRR run is pretty extreme with 4-5" totals across DFW, which is change from earlier runs that had the storms out west diving more SE and eventually forming a MCS. That line of showers lifting north through DFW is probably associated with the leading edge of some moisture/instability return and the axis along it is where I would watch for bigger totals.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#911 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 3:26 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Hey everyone, just a reminder that meteorological summer starts tomorrow. Hopefully this summer will be cooler and wetter than normal! :D

After tonight, we’ll move over to the Texas Summer 2021 thread at http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=121841.

See you in the Texas Summer 2021 thread - next up is fall and then winter!!!


We should add June to the Spring thread and then give July & August their own thread in purgatory :grr: :grr:
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#912 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon May 31, 2021 4:10 pm

Almost 2 inches now with back building a bit it seems. That narrow line widened and got stronger.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#913 Postby Iceresistance » Mon May 31, 2021 4:14 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:It looks like this might be another swing and miss Flash Flood watch for DFW (which is a good string of luck). Things look to be trending towards a MCS forming and then surging SE and missing DFW this afternoon.
I don't think it will be a swing and miss.


Latest HRRR run is pretty extreme with 4-5" totals across DFW, which is change from earlier runs that had the storms out west diving more SE and eventually forming a MCS. That line of showers lifting north through DFW is probably associated with the leading edge of some moisture/instability return and the axis along it is where I would watch for bigger totals.


https://i.ibb.co/ryhXYmC/CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-FWS-N0-Q-20210531-2011-24-100.gif


That is indeed a dangerous Squall line for Dallas, with a Sligt Risk & a Thunderstorm Watch as well
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#914 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 31, 2021 5:10 pm

Dew points near 70 and shield is moving slowly, recipe for some quick totals.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#915 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon May 31, 2021 7:28 pm

Flash Flood Warning
TXC113-439-010300-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0011.210531T2353Z-210601T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Dallas County in north central Texas...
Southeastern Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 653 PM CDT, broadcast media reported flooding in the University
Park area with multiple roads with water flowing over. Between 1
and 3 inches of rain have fallen with up to 2 additional inches of
rain possible. Flash flooding will begin shortly or is already
occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Trained spotters.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
poor drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie,
Mesquite, Carrollton, Richardson, Mansfield, Rowlett, Euless,
Desoto, Cedar Hill, Wylie, Duncanville, Farmers Branch, University
Park, Sachse and Addison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 9720 3270 9722 3284 9704 3299 9680
3297 9652 3285 9652 3256 9695

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#916 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 31, 2021 7:29 pm

Image
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