Texas Spring 2021

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#401 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:46 am

12z HRRR much more concerning for SW Oklahoma and along the Red River. Also, pretty juiced up for N. Texas but storm mode looks very messy.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#402 Postby WacoWx » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:46 am

Due to the lack of hype/discussion, todays atmosphere must not be as volatile as originally thought. I am fine with that.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#403 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:49 am

Eh, DFW will get missed again. Looks to be east and north with just minor severe storms for DFW.

Just want some thunder honestly, but we better start seeing some real severe weather soon or it will be death ridge time.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#404 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:58 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z HRRR much more concerning for SW Oklahoma and along the Red River. Also, pretty juiced up for N. Texas but storm mode looks very messy.



Also do want to mention a possible Bow Echo in Central Oklahoma on the same run . . .

Image

Image
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#405 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:39 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Eh, DFW will get missed again. Looks to be east and north with just minor severe storms for DFW.

Just want some thunder honestly, but we better start seeing some real severe weather soon or it will be death ridge time.


Hrrr shows some good parameter space for dfw at 3pm.1800+ Cape, 300 0-3km srh and minimal cap wouldn’t be too hard to get a supercell or two if it can stay on the south side of any junkvection
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#406 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:44 am

Yeah, HRRR still looked decent at 3. My initial thoughts are probably wrong hopefully. I shouldn't post thoughts before seeing the models. Lol.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#407 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:45 am

Any chance this cloud deck keep things tame around DFW?
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#408 Postby WacoWx » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:46 am

First lightning strikes of the day showing up just south of Abilene.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#409 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:54 am

Mesoscale Discussion #405

Image
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#410 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:42 pm

Svr T Storm Watch has been issued for DFW
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#411 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:51 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #98 Along I-35 from Austin, TX to Pauls Valley, OK

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#412 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:00 pm

Mesoscale Discussion #406, a Tornado Watch AND a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible in NW Texas & SW & Central Oklahoma

Image

Mesoscale Discussion #407, Tornado Watch very possible for SE Texas & Western Louisiana

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#413 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:05 pm

Strong storm heading into the DFW area, could get severe there . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#414 Postby jasons2k » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:15 pm

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...portions of east/southeast Texas into western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231743Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...A strong low-level warm advection regime continues
across east Texas into western LA early this afternoon. A warm front
is draped northwest-to-southeast from central TX into southwest LA
per 17z surface analysis. This front should continue to gradually
lift northward over the next several hours. Dewpoints will increase
to the mid 60s to low 70s F near and south of the front,
contributing to increasing low-level instability. Forecasts
currently increase 0-3 km CAPE to around 100-150 J/kg after 20z in a
corridor near the warm front, with mixing ratios around 15-16 g/kg.
Additionally, the front will further augment already favorable
low-level wind profiles suitable for tornadoes. As a
south/southwesterly low-level jet increases to 50+ kt toward 00z,
some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments is possible.
This could increase damaging wind potential. Even as storm mode
evolves, low-level hodographs will remain favorable for mesovortex
formation and a continuation of a tornado threat with eastward
extent into western LA.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#415 Postby jasons2k » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:16 pm

.70" hail report near New Braunfels.

Cap is busting.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#416 Postby jasons2k » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:01 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 99
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Western Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon across the region. A few supercell storms are
expected,capable of damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of College
Station TX to 30 miles east of Alexandria LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#417 Postby Ntxw » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:49 pm

Lots of messy convection going on. Thick cloud base still lingering, we need the rain. Far NW Texas and SW Oklahoma may be the region of the most action this afternoon where storms initialize for the MCS that crosses Oklahoma. There's also an undercutting front so we'll have to see about the rest of Oklahoma. Far East/Southeast Texas may have the best instability but here too got to see how messy convection plays out.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#418 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:20 pm

We just got slammed IMBY with hail and very heavy rain!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#419 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:23 pm

Models are trending south with the MCS coming out of Oklahoma bringing more rain to N. Texas later this evening.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2021

#420 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:54 pm

bubba hotep wrote:We just got slammed IMBY with hail and very heavy rain!

How big was the hail?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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