Texas Spring 2021

[cheezyWXguy]

OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? (246 hours)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_scpens_246.png

Assuming you actually got storms to form on member 6 and there wasn't some sort of mega cap, then yeah that would be rough.

Is that actually a legitimate depiction or is it a glitch? It’s such a stark contrast to every other member, and I don’t think I’ve ever such an anomalous depiction of supercell parameters

[TheProfessor]

OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? (246 hours)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_scpens_246.png

Assuming you actually got storms to form on member 6 and there wasn't some sort of mega cap, then yeah that would be rough.

Is that actually a legitimate depiction or is it a glitch? It’s such a stark contrast to every other member, and I don’t think I’ve ever such an anomalous depiction of supercell parameters

Seeing the frames before and after it, it's likely a glitch, but that ensemble member would have still been active nonetheless.

[HockeyTx82]

So what's the thought of doing the first mow of Bermuda? To soon? I always scalp and bag but wait for the last frost.

Thoughts?

Also, not sure by my oak tree looks dead now as does most of my front garden....... that cold snap might have did them in.

[Iceresistance]

Multi-day Outbreak is possible across the Southern Plains this weekend (Friday-Satruday)

Day 5 (Friday)


Day 6 (Saturday)


Day 7 (Sunday)

[Haris]

Lets shift that storm track 150 miles S please.

[Iceresistance]

Lets shift that storm track 150 miles S please.

Then I would get the snow . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS looks like a pretty classic early season dryline event on 3/17 for north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Wind profile is fairly unidirectional, but favorable timing and plenty of instability which has been lacking up to this point. Lots of time for things to come into focus.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS looks like a pretty classic early season dryline event on 3/17 for north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Wind profile is fairly unidirectional, but favorable timing and plenty of instability which has been lacking up to this point. Lots of time for things to come into focus.

Also 12z GEFS, this is the Max SCP

[Haris]

Snowstorm on the euro for Texas

[Ntxw]

Snowstorm on the euro for Texas

Fits the narrative for mid month cold. CPC highlighting much below normal temperatures for Texas.

[gpsnowman]

Snowstorm on the euro for Texas

Fits the narrative for mid month cold. CPC highlighting much below normal temperatures for Texas.

It fits what JB has been posting the past several days as well. How cold are we talking? I fly back to Dallas March 17.

[Iceresistance]

Snowstorm on the euro for Texas

Fits the narrative for mid month cold. CPC highlighting much below normal temperatures for Texas.

Ohhhh noooo, here we go again . . .

[Ntxw]

Here we go again.

[HockeyTx82]

Here we go again.

https://i.imgur.com/sy9JIdD.gif

What does the mean temp wise?

[Ntxw]

Here we go again.

https://i.imgur.com/sy9JIdD.gif

What does the mean temp wise?

Might be a couple of hard freezes, day time in the 30s. Pretty cold for middle of March. Theme here is the core of the cold could slide through the middle of the country like it did in February. It's far too early for storm discussion but it's possible.

[jasons2k]

Comparing 2021 to 2011:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/06/weather/ ... index.html

[Ntxw]

Here is the 8-14 day temps from the CPC. Subjective analogs suggest the SE Ridge will resist the cold air from moving east (like in February). Big difference here is the AO will be extremely positive and the cold driven is from -PNA (shorter wavelengths than deep winter) and EPO. Possible big severe weather outbreak for the SE US.



You may be asking what is driving this? There is cold air sitting over eastern Siberia that will cross the Arctic circle into North America and spill down with a HP system brought by the North Pacific Oscillation.

[TheProfessor]

Here is the 8-14 day temps from the CPC. Subjective analogs suggest the SE Ridge will resist the cold air from moving east (like in February). Big difference here is the AO will be extremely positive and the cold driven is from -PNA (shorter wavelengths than deep winter) and EPO. Possible big severe weather outbreak for the SE US.

https://i.imgur.com/IGSeEjt.gif

You may be asking what is driving this? There is cold air sitting over eastern Siberia that will cross the Arctic circle into North America and spill down with a HP system brought by the North Pacific Oscillation.

The AO (and NAO to a lesser extent.) may begin to tank around this period. As I've stated before how teleconnections trend is important. This likely won't have an effect for Texas, but allow an opening for an east coast storm if enough ridging is in place. The GFS does have a weak Miller-B and the AO forecast after the 16th is a bit hectic, but if the timing is right I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Miller B with a storm that seems to be heading for the Lakes but transfers off the East Coast.

[Brent]

Snowstorm on the euro for Texas

Fits the narrative for mid month cold. CPC highlighting much below normal temperatures for Texas.

It fits what JB has been posting the past several days as well. How cold are we talking? I fly back to Dallas March 17.

Lol that's my move in day in Tulsa

[captainbarbossa19]

Comparing 2021 to 2011:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/06/weather/ ... index.html

Hopefully precipitation will not be similar in Texas to that year because we all know what happened then. I'm surprised they didn't call for a mega-drought in the article to add suspense.