STORM2K

Quixotic wrote:2011 coming up.

Could you expand on that, please? I was overseas at the time.

Quixotic wrote:2011 coming up.

Never mention this year again!!!

ZeroGee wrote:

Quixotic wrote:2011 coming up.

Could you expand on that, please? I was overseas at the time.

Oh what a year to be gone(that was before my time in Dallas also)

Most days over 100 ever in Dallas history

The year TS Don evaporated as it made landfall on Padre

Quixotic wrote:2011 coming up.

Please don't mention that year considering the amount of heat! I get flashbacks from that into 2012!

ZeroGee wrote:

Quixotic wrote:2011 coming up.

Could you expand on that, please? I was overseas at the time.

2011 was one of the driest & hottest summers ever recorded in the Southern Plains, 2012 did not help any either . . .

I lived in Oklahoma since 2006, it was very bad that summer . . .

Enhanced risk now for DFW for very large hail, strong winds & tornadoes

The enhanced area looks like a whale. That escalated quickly from DFW being on the edge. I will be going back to KS for the first time since last summer now that my dad and I are both vaccinated, so I probably will miss it tomorrow, but it sounds like it will be fairly isolated.

rwfromkansas wrote:The enhanced area looks like a whale. That escalated quickly from DFW being on the edge. I will be going back to KS for the first time since last summer now that my dad and I are both vaccinated, so I probably will miss it tomorrow, but it sounds like it will be fairly isolated.

It appears conditional based on cap strength and most models aren’t buying. However, SPC and FWD are on board with the euro solution keeping the dryline further west and the cap breakable. This is one of those events that proves meteorology is still much more than model watching.

cheezyWXguy wrote:It appears conditional based on cap strength and most models aren’t buying. However, SPC and FWD are on board with the euro solution keeping the dryline further west and the cap breakable. This is one of those events that proves meteorology is still much more than model watching.

Seems like the SPC/FWD/Euro must have caved towards the NAM and HRRR. The updated Day 2 Outlook moves the threat further east and the discussion is more in line with a severe MCS developing and propagating ESE.

cstrunk wrote:

cheezyWXguy wrote:It appears conditional based on cap strength and most models aren’t buying. However, SPC and FWD are on board with the euro solution keeping the dryline further west and the cap breakable. This is one of those events that proves meteorology is still much more than model watching.

Seems like the SPC/FWD/Euro must have caved towards the NAM and HRRR. The updated Day 2 Outlook moves the threat further east and the discussion is more in line with a severe MCS developing and propagating ESE.

Yep just saw that. Quite a drastic change after such strong wording this morning

ZeroGee wrote:

Quixotic wrote:2011 coming up.

Could you expand on that, please? I was overseas at the time.

The drought and the heat. I mean, everybody remembers the severe weather and the tornadoes in the south but the heat was unbearable and never ending.

Fun With 2011 DFW Heat:

July average (not the high, the AVERAGE): 91.4
August Average: 93.4
1.5" of rain for July, August and September
71 days over 100F.
Summer high of 110.
June thru August Average High: 101.2 (2nd only to 1980)
June thru August Average Low: 79.8 (1st)
The only year to have two streaks of consecutive days over 100 in the top 10 of all time.

I've mentioned this before and if I can find it I'll post it, I have a picture of a telephone pole shadow with dozens of birds lined up in it with their beaks open trying to keep cool. Also have video of dust devils. That year was awful.

Seeing these Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches creeping closer from the west, this discussion is a site for sore eyes! EWX is optimistic on beneficial rains, and 70s temps. It's dry around here, we can definitely use it!

Not usual in a La Nina to have a multi-day rain possibility, where it seems any chance of precip comes with a chance of rough weather, especially this time of year. I'll take the steady soakers over damaging storms. Looking forward to El Nino next week!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 081853
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
153 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Low clouds have cleared across much of the area leading to a mostly
clear afternoon. Temperatures have already warmed up into the 80s to
lower 90s and high temperatures today should reach the lower to
upper 90s across the area. We could even see 100 degrees in the far
southwestern CWA. For tonight, another round of nocturnal stratus is
likely across much of the area with perhaps the Rio Grande Plains
remaining mostly clear.

A potent short-wave trough will pass through the Central Plains
tomorrow morning and afternoon. As a result a surface low will move
across North Texas and to the south of the low over our area, a
dryline will move east across the CWA during the morning and early
afternoon hours. To the west of the dryline, temperatures will warm
into the upper 90s to 102 degrees and with dry dewpoints, afternoon
humidity values will range from the single digits to 15 percent
along and west of a Llano to Bandera to Frio County line. Winds
behind the dryline will be strongest west of a Llano to Bandera to
Maverick County line and we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for
this area for critical fire weather conditions. This will likely be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning by the morning tomorrow. Elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions can be expected elsewhere.

To the east of the dryline tomorrow, it is looking more and more
likely that the stout CAP will hold and we should stay dry tomorrow.
Only have a very small sliver of 20 PoPs in the extreme eastern CWA
tomorrow evening. SPC does have our northeastern counties in a
marginal risk for tomorrow. A marginal risk represents a 5 percent
chance of a severe storm within 25 miles. This does seem reasonable
as although the overall PoP is less than 20 percent, if anything
does break the CAP it will likely be severe with large hail
possible. With the dry airmass remaining in place tomorrow night,
lows will fall all the way into the 50s to lower 60s across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
For the start of the long-term period, upper level low looks to be
centered over Missouri with trough axis extended down into the
southeastern US. With South-Central Texas being on the backside of
this system by Saturday morning, surface high pressure will be in
place with north to northeasterly flow. Thanks to the front on
Friday, temperatures will be moderated back to near normal for
Saturday afternoon.

Gradual warming trend takes place the latter half of the weekend as
southerly moist flow returns. Mostly zonal flow aloft for Sunday into
Monday resulting in a benign weather pattern for the start of next
week. Pwat values recover to 1.5 inches for much of the area by
Tuesday as a large upper level troughing develops over the western
CONUS. Also a smaller upper low traverses the Northern Plains which
will drag a frontal boundary down into Central Texas by late Monday.
As this upper level low continues eastward over the Great Lakes, the
boundary looks to stall over the central portion of the state. This
looks like it will be a focus for low level convergence throughout
the middle portion of the week. Flow aloft turns more west-
southwesterly by Tuesday. Global models depict embedded shortwaves in
the mean flow ejecting over the state starting Tuesday morning. Upper
level support becomes increasingly favorable for large scale ascent
through the middle of the week. This, in combination with sufficient
moisture and low level convergence in place will lead to prolonged
chances of at least slight chances for rain through the remainder of
the forecast period. This pattern certainly look promising for
chances for rain but how much will be the big question.

Global models are in fair agreement across the area with the ECMWF,
GFS, and CMC suggesting around 0.50 - 2.00 inches of rainfall
possible for portions of the area through the end of next week with
northern areas favored for the higher totals. Still far too early to
get bogged down on exact amounts as the forecast is subject to change
given this is 4+ days out. As one would expect, with additional cloud
cover and chances for rain around, high temperatures next week look
to remain near seasonal norms and perhaps slightly below for the end
of the long-term period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 66 94 62 82 53 / - - - 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 94 61 82 51 / - - - 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 96 62 84 53 / - - - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 65 94 58 79 51 / 10 - 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 64 102 62 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 94 60 81 51 / 10 - - 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 65 100 63 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 65 94 61 83 51 / - - - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 91 64 82 52 / - 10 20 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 66 97 65 85 56 / 0 0 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 66 97 65 86 55 / 0 0 - 0 0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
Bandera-Edwards-Gillespie-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Maverick-Real-Uvalde-
Val Verde.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Quixotic wrote:Fun With 2011 DFW Heat:

July average (not the high, the AVERAGE): 91.4
August Average: 93.4
1.5" of rain for July, August and September
71 days over 100F.
Summer high of 110.
June thru August Average High: 101.2 (2nd only to 1980)
June thru August Average Low: 79.8 (1st)
The only year to have two streaks of consecutive days over 100 in the top 10 of all time.

I've mentioned this before and if I can find it I'll post it, I have a picture of a telephone pole shadow with dozens of birds lined up in it with their beaks open trying to keep cool. Also have video of dust devils. That year was awful.

The good news is that 2011 was an anomaly. There are a few years comparable to 2011 (like 1980), but we have to remember that those years are extremes. That does not mean that we will not have another 2011 this year. We certainly could, but let's also remember that there are a lot of other years that started off rather dry and became wet later. Every year is different, and while there are certain patterns that can lead to certain conditions, they do not always yield the same results. If that were the case, there would never be any surprises during hurricane season.

Quite the afternoon update as noted above. Not that I'm complaining but that's a huge difference. Any reason to think it will move back west?

HockeyTx82 wrote:Quite the afternoon update as noted above. Not that I'm complaining but that's a huge difference. Any reason to think it will move back west?

The afternoon afd does note that there is still a lot of uncertainty so it could. 18z nam now blows up a storm in tarrant county tomorrow evening. It’s hard to believe nothing while happen with cape values pushing 4000, but cap busts are pretty common around here

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Quixotic wrote:Fun With 2011 DFW Heat:

July average (not the high, the AVERAGE): 91.4
August Average: 93.4
1.5" of rain for July, August and September
71 days over 100F.
Summer high of 110.
June thru August Average High: 101.2 (2nd only to 1980)
June thru August Average Low: 79.8 (1st)
The only year to have two streaks of consecutive days over 100 in the top 10 of all time.

I've mentioned this before and if I can find it I'll post it, I have a picture of a telephone pole shadow with dozens of birds lined up in it with their beaks open trying to keep cool. Also have video of dust devils. That year was awful.

The good news is that 2011 was an anomaly. There are a few years comparable to 2011 (like 1980), but we have to remember that those years are extremes. That does not mean that we will not have another 2011 this year. We certainly could, but let's also remember that there are a lot of other years that started off rather dry and became wet later. Every year is different, and while there are certain patterns that can lead to certain conditions, they do not always yield the same results. If that were the case, there would never be any surprises during hurricane season.

My hope is that the spring rains are just delayed or that we get NW flow during the summer which can push storms into our area.

Another item I look at is the tropical season the year before. 2005 and 2010 were very active and followed by hot dry summers the following year. If our dry spell continues, it won't take much to get that death ridge going. If I had to bet, I'd pick hotter and drier than normal.

Of course, one stalled front during April or May can do a lot to undo my outlook.

Golf ball sized hail reported in Deport, TX

I just got amazing news everyone! I got the position at the Wichita WFO! I still need to accept the offer and go through the background check, but I got the phone call from the MIC today!

TheProfessor wrote:I just got amazing news everyone! I got the position at the Wichita WFO! I still need to accept the offer and go through the background check, but I got the phone call from the MIC today!

YAY!