Texas Fall 2021

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#341 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:13 pm

A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving :notworthy:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#342 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:45 am

bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving

Seems like we are skipping autumn and heading straight into winter at some point in November. I love fall but if this scenario holds I can live with it. A cold Thanksgiving is always nice.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#343 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:45 am

bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving


I think back to Thanksgiving week of 1993, when the Cowboys played the Dolphins in a very icy game. We call that game the "Leon Lett Bowl" at the office. I still have the printed out model guidance leading up to that Thanksgiving week cold outbreak.

Cowboy fans - just don't click...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoebUFaZViY

Looks like another La Nina winter coming up. Typically, La Nina winters are warmer and drier for Texas. Sort of like last year, minus that Arctic deep freeze in mid-February.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#344 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:27 am

wxman57 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving


I think back to Thanksgiving week of 1993, when the Cowboys played the Dolphins in a very icy game. We call that game the "Leon Lett Bowl" at the office. I still have the printed out model guidance leading up to that Thanksgiving week cold outbreak.

Cowboy fans - just don't click...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoebUFaZViY

Looks like another La Nina winter coming up. Typically, La Nina winters are warmer and drier for Texas. Sort of like last year, minus that Arctic deep freeze in mid-February.

My Grandmother lived in Arlington back in the 1990s, she said that almost every winter, there would be Ice Storms & Snowstorms in DFW, the Ice turned many roads into "Skating Rinks" & would be a absolute nightmare to get around.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#345 Postby Quixotic » Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:A few members on the EPS 45-day starting to show snow for DFW during the week of Thanksgiving


I think back to Thanksgiving week of 1993, when the Cowboys played the Dolphins in a very icy game. We call that game the "Leon Lett Bowl" at the office. I still have the printed out model guidance leading up to that Thanksgiving week cold outbreak.

Cowboy fans - just don't click...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoebUFaZViY

Looks like another La Nina winter coming up. Typically, La Nina winters are warmer and drier for Texas. Sort of like last year, minus that Arctic deep freeze in mid-February.


I got tossed out into the snow/sleet after that game by my mother in order to cool off. Punched a hole in the wall.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#346 Postby Patriot12 » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:42 am

Still wondering when’s the next shot of cool fall air that would reach the coastal bend/Corpus Christi?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#347 Postby texas1836 » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:48 pm

Patriot12 wrote:Still wondering when’s the next shot of cool fall air that would reach the coastal bend/Corpus Christi?


Maybe sometime around November 8th. Looks to be something brewing.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#348 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:17 pm

Change in the weather pattern middle to late next week. The perpetual blocking episode over the NAO/Atlantic is there. The Pacific firehose has been flooding the continent with maritime air. This jet streak will be blocked and forced underneath due to the Atlantic blocking.

This isn't any Arctic or Polar intrusion, however will produce big upper trofs stuck underneath with more seasonably cool weather. Longer range suggest some high pressures working its way into the PNA region will be better for some cold and end this phase of warmth.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#349 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:15 am

The end of the 10 day TV forecast here was quite chilly compared to well pretty much everything recent minus a couple days last week maybe :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#350 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:23 pm

Evidence now growing we will slowly benefit from the NAO blocking. Still no 'Arctic' air mass but with climo to the north it won't take much to bring down some colder air, especially given how warm it has been. That's the beauty of real blocking, whatever is in the Polar regions is dislocated further south. Surface pressures rising is a good sign.

GOA low retraction and PNA rise will cool the Eastern 2/3rds of the US.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#351 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:54 pm

Monday originally had highs in the upper 80s here now around 70

And behind that front mid week could be even better
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#352 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:48 pm

Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#353 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png

This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#354 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:31 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png

This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS


Typical GFS stuff.

Tuesday Morning GFS

Image

Tuesday Morning CMC

Image

:lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#355 Postby Haris » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:00 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png

This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS


Lol I would not say "really high" . One GFS run 10+ days away
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#356 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:25 am

Haris wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png

This has really high Potential, there is also a Rain/Snow Mix for Oklahoma & Northern Texas from the GFS


Lol I would not say "really high" . One GFS run 10+ days away

I meant Very High Potential if this were to verify
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#357 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:37 am

Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#358 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:41 am

Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png


Ensembles are in good agreement that we will see a period of below normal temps across Texas. However, as you pointed out above, if our source region was currently below normal then this would be a rather significant early season cold snap. One thing to watch, is this transition period setting the stage for a winter with repeating blocking episodes in the NAO region or is it going to be transitory? IMHO, there are reasons to believe that we will see some sustained -NAO periods resulting in a rather chilly Nov & Dec.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#359 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:44 am

Tuesday looks like another stormy day across Texas.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#360 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:12 pm

New GFS and CMC runs have freezing temps in Texas panhandle and the GFS has 3 (yes, 3) snowstorms across the entire panhandle from Amarillo to Lubbock. Some very nice looking eye candy. :wink:

Image
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