TropicalTundra wrote:New GFS and CMC runs have freezing temps in Texas panhandle and the GFS has 3 (yes, 3) snowstorms across the entire panhandle from Amarillo to Lubbock. Some very nice looking eye candy.
https://i.imgur.com/lD4Iyqv.jpg
Texas Fall 2021
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.
https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png
https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png
Ensembles are in good agreement that we will see a period of below normal temps across Texas. However, as you pointed out above, if our source region was currently below normal then this would be a rather significant early season cold snap. One thing to watch, is this transition period setting the stage for a winter with repeating blocking episodes in the NAO region or is it going to be transitory? IMHO, there are reasons to believe that we will see some sustained -NAO periods resulting in a rather chilly Nov & Dec.
I think so too on the blocking. Blocking and non-blocking years tends to come back to back/bunches together. The big difference will be the PDO.
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
EURO now showing highs in the 40s too with snow in OK
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Haris wrote:EURO now showing highs in the 40s too with snow in OK
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Low 60s for highs at the end of the forecast here that would be below normal and of course the Euro would be colder
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Cpv17 wrote:The CPC isn’t really sold on any big cool down. At least not yet.
I think that's a decent approach. There really isn't any major cold air masses, it's barely freezing in a lot of Canada. It's just the broad pattern is going to change so no more persistent returning heat.
Snow in the higher ground of the Panhandles isn't unusual with big upper low features this time of year but not always associated with a major cold snap.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Some more evidence a shift is coming. Pacific jet retraction pulls back the GOA low to the Aleutians (more El Nino-y) position. So there is support for the PNA or EPO ridge to appear.
Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.
Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Ntxw wrote:Some more evidence a shift is coming. Pacific jet retraction pulls back the GOA low to the Aleutians (more El Nino-y) position. So there is support for the PNA or EPO ridge to appear.
Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.
https://i.imgur.com/dWUAkr3.png
12Z GFS showing major rain in Texas for the first part of November.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Snow near DFW on euro
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Haris wrote:Snow near DFW on euro
Was just coming to post that
The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
bubba hotep wrote:Haris wrote:Snow near DFW on euro
Was just coming to post that
The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.
one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe
I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Svr Wx Day on Tap for Tomorrow across the Region
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Brent wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Haris wrote:Snow near DFW on euro
Was just coming to post that
The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.
one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe
I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today
https://i.ibb.co/LzvT8cM/sn10-acc-us-sc.png
Lock it in. That's crazy if that were to verify that early in the season. I remember last Winter we all doubted the models and we got hammered with once and a lifetime cold snap.
I remember reading something about this Winter being the second shot of cold because we are just in that pattern. Anyone buying that with all the cold we had last year?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
HockeyTx82 wrote:Brent wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
Was just coming to post that
The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.
one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe
I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today
https://i.ibb.co/LzvT8cM/sn10-acc-us-sc.png
Lock it in. That's crazy if that were to verify that early in the season. I remember last Winter we all doubted the models and we got hammered with once and a lifetime cold snap.
I remember reading something about this Winter being the second shot of cold because we are just in that pattern. Anyone buying that with all the cold we had last year?
It’s possible, but social media is definitely overstocking the hype train. I’ve seen several instances and even heard from relatives that they’re worried because “it’s going to happen again this winter”. The projected certainty I hear and see from these people can frustrating, considering how rare of an event that was.
Granted, there seems to be basis for consideration, and it sounds like some of the large scale pattern indicators will be there. TheProfessor has a good post going into detail on this in the winter weather thread.
It does make me a little on edge, because the current vulnerability of our power infrastructure means we may not need an event as severe as last winter’s to cause problems. A classic Texas ice/sleet storm like December 2013 could do the trick. My personal opinion is we should keep an eye out and be prepared for a situation like this, but we’re not even close to sounding the alarm bells.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
The 0z Canadian would be insane. 3" of snow for Wichita in the first week of November. Lock it in!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
TheProfessor wrote:The 0z Canadian would be insane. 3" of snow for Wichita in the first week of November. Lock it in!
Yeah the middle of next week is looking a little cooler down here with perhaps a couple days in the 60's. We shall see but the fall weather could be here to stay.
In the meantime get ready for a good line of storms overnight.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Brent wrote::cold: GFS drops the winter hammer next week
https://i.ibb.co/2PNWSK6/gfs-T2ma-scus-38.png
Wow!! The 60's next week might need to be adjusted!! And that is not that far out. Yes please.
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