Texas Fall 2021

[Brent]

Entire 10 day on TV was sunny and above 80 even a couple 90s

It is October right?

[gpsnowman]

Entire 10 day on TV was sunny and above 80 even a couple 90s

It is October right?

October is favorite month mainly because we finally get rid of the heat and see some strong fronts. 90's are no good. Perhaps the 2nd half of the month we will get some true fall like air.

[Iceresistance]

90s are back in my forecast again, it seems like that this Summer is trying it's hardest to reach 100°F but it might be too late now . . .

[bubba hotep]

Much better looking pattern on the 12z Euro other than that probably kicks off some svr wx as that trough goes from positive to negative as it kicks out of the SW. If this trend holds, then FWD will probably introduce some low end pops with the overnight package. So maybe not the 10+ More Days of Summer we were fearing?

[Brent]

the GFS has some snow in NW Kansas next Wednesday

It seems at the very least that front would end the stretch of 80s

It's pretty crazy but up here apparently we are threatening a record from the dust bowl of highs above 80(through mid week next week would get very close)

[texas1836]

I read where the South Pole had record cold since records have been kept. I wonder if the same will be with our Northern Pole. I do see some rapid freezing up there, and the melt was less over the summer. Just something to watch.

[TheProfessor]

I read where the South Pole had record cold since records have been kept. I wonder if the same will be with our Northern Pole. I do see some rapid freezing up there, and the melt was less over the summer. Just something to watch.

This would be the opposite of what we would want, a strong polar vortex would keep the cold bundled up within the pole.

[Iceresistance]

I read where the South Pole had record cold since records have been kept. I wonder if the same will be with our Northern Pole. I do see some rapid freezing up there, and the melt was less over the summer. Just something to watch.

This would be the opposite of what we would want, a strong polar vortex would keep the cold bundled up within the pole.

Unless the Polar Vortex comes to visit here yet again this winter . . .

[Ntxw]

Some hot days still coming.

Optimistic news is that a possible major hurricane is likely to form off the southwest coast of Mexico over in the EPAC (not good for them but for broader scale for us) and make landfall/recurve. This would inject mid and high level plume of moisture from the deep tropics into a well timed trough. Still wait and see but could see a good rainfall event mid month.

[Iceresistance]

Some hot days still coming.

Optimistic news is that a possible major hurricane is likely to form off the southwest coast of Mexico over in the EPAC (not good for them but for broader scale for us) and make landfall/recurve. This would inject mid and high level plume of moisture from the deep tropics into a well timed trough. Still wait and see but could see a good rainfall event mid month.

Also want to mention that this could enhance the Severe Weather Potential for Oklahoma Next Week as well . . .

[bubba hotep]

Much better looking pattern on the 12z Euro other than that probably kicks off some svr wx as that trough goes from positive to negative as it kicks out of the SW. If this trend holds, then FWD will probably introduce some low end pops with the overnight package. So maybe not the 10+ More Days of Summer we were fearing?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021100412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

SPC highlighting Day 5 & 7

[bubba hotep]

Some hot days still coming.

Optimistic news is that a possible major hurricane is likely to form off the southwest coast of Mexico over in the EPAC (not good for them but for broader scale for us) and make landfall/recurve. This would inject mid and high level plume of moisture from the deep tropics into a well timed trough. Still wait and see but could see a good rainfall event mid month.

The GFS has had that system for a bit now but chatter starting to pick up around it in the chaser community. More importantly for Texas, models are trending much wetter. There are no real signs of cold air but the increased frequency of s/w kicking out from the mean trough look to keep temps pretty much seasonal in Texas after the next few hot days.

As someone mentioned earlier, Arctic Sea ice is higher than the past few years and is actually above normal on our side of the globe closer to Alaska. Also, seasonal signs are pointing to a weaker than normal Polar Vortex, so maybe more frequent cold air intrusions this winter.

[Iceresistance]

Enchanced risk Alert!

[Iceresistance]

WPC is looking good again Days 4, 6 & 7 are the main focus days . . .

[texas1836]

WPC is looking good again Days 4, 6 & 7 are the main focus days . . .


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/p168i2f8b8c34c7cb392a.gif

Looks like the Rockies could see a few feet of snow as well.

[Brent]

I see some fall weather at the end of next week

Will it actually verify? I mean it's going to have to soon days are getting darker by the day

[TheProfessor]

Do not sleep on this severe weather threat. Both systems are looking legit. Especially further south (of me) for Sunday and Monday). CMC also hints that this pattern could last all week for some. Would be a nice amount of rain for southern Kansas if so.

[Iceresistance]

Parts of the DFW Metroplex are under the Enhanced Risk

[Ntxw]

Near record heat today around Texas. DFW is forecast 94-95 and daily record high for October 8 is 96. Temperatures remain above normal until near the end of next week as it tries to lower closer to normal (however normal is falling quickly with climo) so we need forecasts in the 70s/50s to be about average.

I think the initial system is going to be MCS style event with the bulk of the heavy rain in Oklahoma. .

Atmospheric drought is beginning to take hold in the Northern and Southern Plains. -PDO in combo with -MEI is a pretty clear signal medium to long term drought is probably on the way. It's one of the strongest combo for the values since 2011/

[Ntxw]

Keep an eye on the EPAC. The system that will become Hurricane Pamela is going to be a major player with the mid week system. October + EPAC activity spells heavy rain event. I think risk of this overperforming will be higher. It's going to deliver a lot of moisture content and infused with a boundary/front is your classic deluge event.