Texas Fall 2021

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Haris
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#301 Postby Haris » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:12 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Massive forecast bust for the eastern areas of DFW. High was forecast at 83 with 80% of heavy rain. Not a drop of rain and almost 90 outside...

Models have also cut back on totals as the boundary hasn't made any progress SE and all the rain is staying to the NW side of the boundary.



All that will move E tonight. Don’t worry
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#302 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:16 pm

I wouldn't call it bust yet. Where it is raining hard right now to the NW dews up there are in the 50s and lower 60s, the lift from the boundary rather than moisture content is in control as far as today. Once the greater area of lift shifts east, infused with what's left of Pamela the moisture content to the east and south is much higher near 70dp. They will be very efficient rain producers once it arrives tonight. Can make it up quickly.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#303 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:22 pm

Latest radar is looking better. Bust cancel. lol.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#304 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:I wouldn't call it bust yet. Where it is raining hard right now to the NW dews up there are in the 50s and lower 60s, the lift from the boundary rather than moisture content is in control as far as today. Once the greater area of lift shifts east, infused with what's left of Pamela the moisture content to the east and south is much higher near 70dp. They will be very efficient rain producers once it arrives tonight. Can make it up quickly.


I should have clarified that I was just pointing out that today was a massive bust (for those keeping score, yesterday was as well with 70% forecast and almost no rain in DFW). Models are obviously struggling with the setup but the extra heating to the SE of the boundary probably results in a net positive vs. rain moving in quicker.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#305 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:49 pm

I do think the heaviest rain was supposed to come overnight, I just got overly excited that I only saw .05 today and zip yesterday. It’s on the way though it looks like.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#306 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:50 pm

Raining again at my house.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#307 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:53 pm

It’s a good thing this isn’t a severe setup. Seeing discrete storms moving nne ahead of an eastward moving line tends to give me an uneasy feeling.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#308 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:07 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:It’s a good thing this isn’t a severe setup. Seeing discrete storms moving nne ahead of an eastward moving line tends to give me an uneasy feeling.


Yeah, especially on what happened this morning . . .
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#309 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:17 pm

Is more supposed to develop from the west? Back edge almost here.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#310 Postby Haris » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:28 pm

Dangerous situation developing over AUS-SA corrdior
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#311 Postby WacoWx » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:48 pm

Haris wrote:Dangerous situation developing over AUS-SA corrdior

I think you’re right. Eastward motion slowing with more development behind the main line still to come through.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#312 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:08 pm

Not even an inch at DFW airport.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#313 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:16 am

Apparently this is it. I’m stunned. I thought it was supposed to rain all night.

Stuff south of Austin is extreme though.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#314 Postby SoupBone » Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:41 am

Ok guys, I don't care about DFW, yall tell me about Houston with this cool front. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#315 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:06 am

Ntxw wrote:Not even an inch at DFW airport.


DFW airport has had some bad luck with higher totals all around there this yr. I ended up 3.5" IMBY, kind of shocked.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#316 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:09 am

Looked like Tarrant up through the airport got reduced totals, while Dallas east got more. At least some areas of the metro did cash in ultimately. Now, on to an amazing weekend. Looking forward to opening those windows.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#317 Postby WacoWx » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:51 am

2.77" IMBY for the entire event here at the High 5.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#318 Postby Haris » Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:19 pm

Image

4.9 at the house in W Austin.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#319 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:30 pm

I heard La Grange got about 10” and Gonzales got about 12”…
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#320 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:06 pm

2.5 to 3-inches in Grayson County. Absolute flood at my house in Denison. No bust here...
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