Texas Fall 2021

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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#361 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:19 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:New GFS and CMC runs have freezing temps in Texas panhandle and the GFS has 3 (yes, 3) snowstorms across the entire panhandle from Amarillo to Lubbock. Some very nice looking eye candy. :wink:

https://i.imgur.com/lD4Iyqv.jpg


:eek: :double: :eek: :double: :spam:

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#362 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:58 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Imagine this in deep winter from a cold source.

https://i.imgur.com/H2ksFzz.png

https://i.imgur.com/VP0YrMH.png


Ensembles are in good agreement that we will see a period of below normal temps across Texas. However, as you pointed out above, if our source region was currently below normal then this would be a rather significant early season cold snap. One thing to watch, is this transition period setting the stage for a winter with repeating blocking episodes in the NAO region or is it going to be transitory? IMHO, there are reasons to believe that we will see some sustained -NAO periods resulting in a rather chilly Nov & Dec.


I think so too on the blocking. Blocking and non-blocking years tends to come back to back/bunches together. The big difference will be the PDO.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#363 Postby Haris » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:57 pm

EURO now showing highs in the 40s too with snow in OK
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#364 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:07 pm

Haris wrote:EURO now showing highs in the 40s too with snow in OK


:double: :eek: :cold: :spam:

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#365 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:05 pm

The CPC isn’t really sold on any big cool down. At least not yet.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#366 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:42 pm

Low 60s for highs at the end of the forecast here that would be below normal and of course the Euro would be colder
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#367 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:45 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The CPC isn’t really sold on any big cool down. At least not yet.


I think that's a decent approach. There really isn't any major cold air masses, it's barely freezing in a lot of Canada. It's just the broad pattern is going to change so no more persistent returning heat.

Snow in the higher ground of the Panhandles isn't unusual with big upper low features this time of year but not always associated with a major cold snap.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#368 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:46 pm

Some more evidence a shift is coming. Pacific jet retraction pulls back the GOA low to the Aleutians (more El Nino-y) position. So there is support for the PNA or EPO ridge to appear.


Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#369 Postby lukem » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some more evidence a shift is coming. Pacific jet retraction pulls back the GOA low to the Aleutians (more El Nino-y) position. So there is support for the PNA or EPO ridge to appear.


Relative to the base state that's a pretty drastic drop in the SOI over a week's time.
https://i.imgur.com/dWUAkr3.png


12Z GFS showing major rain in Texas for the first part of November.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#370 Postby Haris » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:56 pm

Snow near DFW on euro
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#371 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:08 pm

Haris wrote:Snow near DFW on euro


Was just coming to post that :double:

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#372 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:11 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Haris wrote:Snow near DFW on euro


Was just coming to post that :double:

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.


:double: :froze: one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe

I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#373 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:17 pm

Svr Wx Day on Tap for Tomorrow across the Region

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#374 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:48 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Haris wrote:Snow near DFW on euro


Was just coming to post that :double:

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.


:double: :froze: one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe

I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today

https://i.ibb.co/LzvT8cM/sn10-acc-us-sc.png


Lock it in. That's crazy if that were to verify that early in the season. I remember last Winter we all doubted the models and we got hammered with once and a lifetime cold snap.

I remember reading something about this Winter being the second shot of cold because we are just in that pattern. Anyone buying that with all the cold we had last year?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#375 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:27 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Was just coming to post that :double:

The old Euro had a cold bias in the column and would produce unrealistic snow maps, esp. in the 7-10 day range with surface temps above freezing. Now to see if that carried over to this update version or if this is a real winter wx threat.


:double: :froze: one thing for sure there is a signal for some kind of storm(not necessarily wintry) or at least a big front in that timeframe

I will say this front is no slouch here... The airport is still at 58 at 3pm! I remember last week when they thought we might push 90 today

https://i.ibb.co/LzvT8cM/sn10-acc-us-sc.png


Lock it in. That's crazy if that were to verify that early in the season. I remember last Winter we all doubted the models and we got hammered with once and a lifetime cold snap.

I remember reading something about this Winter being the second shot of cold because we are just in that pattern. Anyone buying that with all the cold we had last year?

It’s possible, but social media is definitely overstocking the hype train. I’ve seen several instances and even heard from relatives that they’re worried because “it’s going to happen again this winter”. The projected certainty I hear and see from these people can frustrating, considering how rare of an event that was.

Granted, there seems to be basis for consideration, and it sounds like some of the large scale pattern indicators will be there. TheProfessor has a good post going into detail on this in the winter weather thread.

It does make me a little on edge, because the current vulnerability of our power infrastructure means we may not need an event as severe as last winter’s to cause problems. A classic Texas ice/sleet storm like December 2013 could do the trick. My personal opinion is we should keep an eye out and be prepared for a situation like this, but we’re not even close to sounding the alarm bells.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#376 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:03 am

:double:

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#377 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:00 pm

The 0z Canadian would be insane. 3" of snow for Wichita in the first week of November. Lock it in!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#378 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The 0z Canadian would be insane. 3" of snow for Wichita in the first week of November. Lock it in!

Yeah the middle of next week is looking a little cooler down here with perhaps a couple days in the 60's. We shall see but the fall weather could be here to stay.

In the meantime get ready for a good line of storms overnight.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#379 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:40 pm

:cold: :double: :cold: :froze: GFS drops the winter hammer next week

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#380 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:44 pm

Brent wrote::cold: :double: :cold: :froze: GFS drops the winter hammer next week

https://i.ibb.co/2PNWSK6/gfs-T2ma-scus-38.png

Wow!! The 60's next week might need to be adjusted!! And that is not that far out. Yes please.
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