Texas Fall 2021

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Patriot12
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#281 Postby Patriot12 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:43 pm

IceResistance - respectfully your posts read like this, 'it probably will, but when who knows?'
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#282 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:49 pm

Patriot12 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Its not just you. I agree with you.


It will eventually pan out, last time it was really panned out was in 2013, but the question is when it will pan out again?


Huh?


I meant there is a cycle, years with nasty outbreaks (We REALLY DON'T WANT those) are followed with years where there are not much & back again.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#283 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:01 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:It's panned out many times since 2013


Ehhh, I beg to differ. Seen many enhanced and moderate risks bust lately. When I think of tornado outbreaks I think of at least 50+ tornadoes with a few EF3’s or bigger. How many of those have there been lately? Probably a few that I might not remember but it sure seems to me severe weather has been on a decline lately.

It has probably cycled downward, it's going to ramp back up again, but when is the question

Winter became generally milder after 2010-2011 Winter, but after that, I knew that Winter was going to wake up soon, but when was the question. The 2020-2021 Winter showed that pattern.

It depends where you’re looking I guess. Outside of 2019 I can’t think of any widespread tornado outbreaks for Oklahoma since 2013 (sulphur/wynnewood or 5/6/15 maybe?)

Here in Dallas, the only significant tornado events I can remember have actually occurred in the last 10 years (apr 3 2012, dec 26, 2015, and oct 20, 2019). Hell, all 4 tornadoes I’ve ever seen occurred in the last 2 years.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#284 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:22 pm

Patriot12 wrote:IceResistance - respectfully your posts read like this, 'it probably will, but when who knows?'


Thanks, I've read it wrong, that's my fault here.

I do remember there are active years (2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, & 2021 (For Dixie Alley)) And Lull Years (2014, 2016, 2018, 2020) in a somewhat repeating pattern.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#285 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:48 pm

There is some truth to the downward trend, at least compared to the decade prior. Before 2011 we were consistently near or above the mean in term of tornado reports (the adjusted tornado counts follow this trend as well). After 2011 you had a few years that went above but then a few after that is well below, and the below were very below relative to past decades.

2013 was the quietest but as you can see in Oklahoma that year, overall numbers doesn't mean you can't have a major localized outbreak at any given time. It depends on where you live and if you are unlucky in the wrong spot. However there has been a weakened trend with count since the big 2011 year.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#286 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:48 am

Flash Flood Watch for DFW

Image

And lots of rain coming to Texas

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#287 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:54 am

Euro oddly backed off a bit for N TX but other models solid. Expect at least 2 inches, which is going to feel like a massive flood. Some folks will likely get a lot more.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#288 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:There is some truth to the downward trend, at least compared to the decade prior. Before 2011 we were consistently near or above the mean in term of tornado reports (the adjusted tornado counts follow this trend as well). After 2011 you had a few years that went above but then a few after that is well below, and the below were very below relative to past decades.

2013 was the quietest but as you can see in Oklahoma that year, overall numbers doesn't mean you can't have a major localized outbreak at any given time. It depends on where you live and if you are unlucky in the wrong spot. However there has been a weakened trend with count since the big 2011 year.

https://i.imgur.com/ZHaTnbq.png


Ok, I knew I wasn’t trippin lol glad to see my thoughts backed up!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#289 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:30 pm

After a wet week we appear to be in for an incredible weekend with highs near 70.and lows in the 40s.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#290 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:09 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:After a wet week we appear to be in for an incredible weekend with highs near 70.and lows in the 40s.


Yeah for real I've already been telling some people about it when I was out earlier it's gonna be something
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#291 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:33 am

12z HRRR and 3K NAM are dropping some big totals across N. Texas for this event.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#292 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:40 am

Latest HRRR showing 4-6+" across DFW!

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#293 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:44 am

bubba hotep wrote:Latest HRRR showing 4-6+" across DFW!

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2021101314/018/qpf_acc.us_sc.png


So much for the 'DFW dry slot' :lol:
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#294 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:33 pm

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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#295 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:35 pm



Yea, there has been a lot of preseason chatter about conditions looking favorable for strat warmings and a weak PV this winter.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#296 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:15 pm

Massive forecast bust for the eastern areas of DFW. High was forecast at 83 with 80% of heavy rain. Not a drop of rain and almost 90 outside...

Models have also cut back on totals as the boundary hasn't made any progress SE and all the rain is staying to the NW side of the boundary.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#297 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:25 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Massive forecast bust for the eastern areas of DFW. High was forecast at 83 with 80% of heavy rain. Not a drop of rain and almost 90 outside...

Models have also cut back on totals as the boundary hasn't made any progress SE and all the rain is staying to the NW side of the boundary.

Yep. Getting whiffs of bust city. Locals are still calling for a good amount, although the window is closing on both ends IMO. Another rain bust holy crapolla. Frustrating as hell.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#298 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:28 pm

Channel 5 is out there on flood patrol on dry streets. Gimmie a freaking break. Ok, some rain will fall but come on man!!!!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#299 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:45 pm

Yesterday NWS said it might happen but was unlikely.

Well, it’s happening probably.

Ugh.

Ridiculous how bad models can miss things still.

Northwest of DFW cashed in last time, too.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#300 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:47 pm

SE Oklahoma is being drenched right now! And more rain coming my way as well! I've recorded 1.2 inches from this morning's storms

And it appears that the Trough has slowed down, it's maximizing the Tropical Moisture Potential from Pamela
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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